For the price has been achieved, ready to go.
< 1 > in terms of epidemic situation.
Domestic epidemic situation: confirmed / imported cases / asymptomatic / severe / 9321664 998 persons.
The standing Committee of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on the 29th to analyze the situation of prevention and control of the epidemic situation of Xinguan pneumonia at home and abroad, study and deploy measures to improve the prevention and control of the normal epidemic situation, and study and determine a package of policies to support the economic and social development of Hubei Province.
Overseas epidemic situation: new cases / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 75844 / > 3.148 million / 223918.
The first square array of the United States: confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / > 1.064 million / 61669.
Trump: the "worst days" of the epidemic in the United States are over. Trump asked U. S. meat processing plants to continue to operate during the outbreak. Ha! Old Tate "wise"!
United Kingdom: > 165000 / 4076 26097.
Russia: > 106000 / 7099 1073.
Brazil: > 99600 / 5236 5513.
Turkey: > 11.75 2936 3081.
Canada: > 51500 / 1222 2996.
India: > 33000 / 1738 1096.
Peru: > 33900 / 2741 943.
Singapore: > 16100 / 528.
< 2 > current playback:
1. Today, spot market prices generally rose, South China Guangzhou, East China Shanghai, Hangzhou cumulative increase of 20 yuan 40 yuan / ton.
Trading volume remained strong.
The market mentality is good.
Tangshan area billet upward 10 to 3090 yuan / ton.
Raw material end:
Scrap prices are still rising in the southwest.
Coke prices remain stable: coke companies raise their voices again, but steel mills remain silent.
Most areas of coking coal prices are temporarily stable, and some areas are still under pressure.
Iron ore port spot market early stable noon strong, the overall push up 5-10 yuan. Shandong direction PB powder mine 650yuan / ton, Tangshan area PB powder ore 655yuan / ton transaction.
Steel factory pre-festival replenishment has been completed, inquiry in general, trading weaker than yesterday.
2. Futures: once purple micro-east, Hu Xingsen dazzle.
RB2010 main contract: strong rebound between 3311 and 3368 during the day, ending at 3367.
HC2010 main contract: strong rebound between 3170 and 3225 during the day, ending at 3211.
Iron ore i2009 main contract: within the day between 599 and 613 with a sharp rebound in rebar, ending at 610.
Coke J2009 main contract: a strong rebound between 1660.5 and 1698 during the day, ending at 1693.
Coking coal JM2009 main contract: a strong rebound between 1044 and 1078 in the day, ending at 1069.
< 3 > current forecast for the first week after the festival
1. Spot aspect: shock upward.
RB2010 main contract: concussion between 3330 and 3450.
HC2010 main contract: concussion between 3170 and 3290.
I2009 main contract: shock between 600 and 618.
J2009 main contract: concussion between 1650 and 1730.
JM2009 main contract: concussion between 1030 and 1090.
3. The spot operation hint: the high storekeeper continues to sell the low suction rolling operation mainly, the late consciousness can still replenish the inventory in appropriate amount.
Thread, hot coil: the previous low multi-single hold, the new single range of high throw low suction rolling operation.
Iron ore: high altitude and low trading in the range.
Coke: more trading in the range.
Coking coal: more trading in the range.
RB2010 main contract: support level 3330.
HC2010 main contract: support level 3130.
I2009 main contract: support level 600, pressure level 618.
J2009 main contract: support level 1630, pressure level 1730.
JM2005 main force contract: support level 1030, pressure level 1090.
< IV > Information and heart language.
1. Meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee: Hubei Province should speed up the resumption of work and production, resume the market and resume business, help solve the difficulties faced by enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, promote the resumption and development of pillar industries such as automobile manufacturing, electronic information, new materials, and biomedicine, and stabilize the basic economic market. It is necessary to launch a number of major projects to speed up the construction of traditional infrastructure and new infrastructure such as 5G and artificial intelligence.
2. Fed: keep interest rates in the 0%-0.25% range. Interest rates will be kept low until the Fed is confident that inflation will get back on track. The purchase of treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities as required will continue. Committed to using all tools to support the U. S. economy, committed to continuing large-scale overnight and regular repo operations. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said economic activity will decline at an unprecedented rate in the second quarter. Manufacturing is likely to fall even faster in April, with unemployment hitting a record high in the second quarter. Keeping credit flowing is crucial and low interest rates alone will not stimulate economic activity and more may be needed.
3. Sunrise interpretation of inventory data:
The total output of the five major varieties decreased by 82300 tons to 10.2099 million tons, of which the output of rebar increased by 10500 tons to 3.5852 million tons, and the output of hot rolling decreased by 111900 tons to 3.0119 million tons.
The total inventory of the five major varieties decreased by 2.0178 million tons to 26.2692 million tons, of which the total inventory of rebar fell by 1.1986 million tons to 13.9133 million tons, and the total inventory of hot rolling decreased by 201500 tons to 4.495 million tons.
Steel mill inventory: five major varieties fell by 649000 tons to 7.5058 million tons, rebar by 375400 tons to 3.9569 million tons, hot rolling by 45500 tons to 1.1678 million tons.
Social warehouse inventory: five major varieties fell by 1.3688 million tons to 18.7634 million tons, rebar by 823200 tons to 9.9567 million tons, hot rolling by 156000 tons to 3.3275 million tons.
Interpretation: this sunrise of inventory data is generally in line with the author's expectations, but far exceeds the pessimistic expectations of the market.
The main contributions are as follows: (1) the output of the five major varieties decreases instead of increasing, and the main contribution is hot rolling, which is forced to reduce production by steel mills due to the impact of low import prices and the cancellation of export orders. The small increase in the output of rebar is mainly due to the high operating rate of independent electric arc furnace and the suppression of scrap resources.
(2) the so-called "peak" of market demand has been falsified. The return period of demand is expected to be further consolidated!
(3) the deinventory is accelerated and the inventory pressure is lost.
(4) the total inventory of the five major varieties is 26.27 million tons, and the total inventory of rebar is 13.91 million tons. Only from the visual data, it is on the same platform as the peak of last year (25.3 million tons of five varieties and 13.6 million tons of rebar). If the author takes into account the statistical caliber sample factors, the current statistical social database data are overestimated! The reason for this is that the number of samples of social warehouses has increased, and the caliber of demand remains the same. Taken together, the current inventory data is actually below last year's peak.
Overall interpretation: overall optimism.
4. Infrastructure demand, rush demand has rushed on the road. , the real estate at least stock demand has gradually expanded, the demand beauty to fill its walk half way, short position night road whistle why?! The expansion of the supply side has been at a high level, and the walking space is limited in May. Inventory significant decompression, steel prices corresponding to the inventory value has been low valuation. The author's forward-looking prediction is being fulfilled. Steel prices fell in May to drive the loss of power! Ready to go on the road, it is expected that the center of gravity will move up by 200 ±50. In short, the point of view remains the same.
5. Coke fundamentals have been quietly improved, coking coal is building the bottom stage, coke enterprises in the first round to increase the probability of landing! Iron ore medium-term pressure unchanged, short-term dance with rebar, but the upward space is limited.
6. During the holidays, we will pay attention to outbound and overseas outbreaks, especially the stock of epidemic soyabeans.
Wish: happy May Day!
< 5 > prospects for the steel market in the second quarter.
I. Prediction of macro prospects at home and abroad
Domestic macro vision:
First, the epidemic gentleman mistakenly hit the Yellow Crane Tower, counter-cyclical adjustment accelerated.
During the period from the outbreak of the Yellow Crane Tower to the pre-outbreak of the overseas epidemic, the domestic counter-cyclical regulatory factors increased and accelerated, mainly including and not limited to the new infrastructure, tax reduction, reduction of accuracy and other policy incentives to counter epidemic injury and the "six stable" target tasks, even after the "two sessions", because of the overseas epidemic outbreak "six stable" national policy to a certain extent, there is a correction probability, but considering the role of inertia and lag, the second quarter can and must be reflected. That is, strong expectations will be fulfilled in the second quarter.
Second, there is uncertainty in China's monetary policy in the later period.
In order to rescue the current liquidity crisis in the market, and in response to possible economic turmoil, the Fed has launched an unlimited, bottomless QE monetary easing stimulus. There is no doubt that all non-US countries have paid for it, and no matter what measures they take, imported inflation is doomed.
In the short term, stimulated by the Fed's unlimited easing program, suspended the liquidity crisis, calmed the market sentiment is effective, U. S. stocks rebounded sharply.
In the medium term, the main contradiction of the US Emperor is the epidemic situation. At the beginning of the epidemic, there is uncertainty about the extent to which the epidemic has deteriorated, and this year's recession is deterministic. The recession began with an epidemic. Consumers had to spend less because of the epidemic, and producers had to shut down because of the epidemic. Enterprises can not produce normally because of the impact of the epidemic, at the same time, they have to face a sharp reduction in orders brought about by shrinking consumption in the future. Many enterprises will have to face the risk of bankruptcy because of the cash flow crisis caused by the sharp decline in income, and the resulting rising unemployment rate will aggravate the economic recession. These economic activities, the Fed injection of liquidity to promote the role is very limited.
Bet all the money on the bottom of the deposit box on the gambling epidemic! Premature excessive consumption of policy space, what if the epidemic gets out of control? Can the trick of sucking blood and non-American people's sweat in 2008 come true again? Let's see.
In the long run, the great change in the world pattern is deterministic, but who is in charge of uncertainty!
Looking at the great China, China's monetary policy is facing a big test again! Is it possible to follow in the footsteps of the non-US developed economies and follow the old path of 2008? Or are you sure to move on? Or is the "six stable national policy" adjusted to "protect finance and employment"?. No, no. Test the wisdom of decision makers again! In short, hard wounds can not escape! After the "two sessions", the monetary policy of a great country is full of uncertainty, and the market is now strongly expected to cut interest rates in April. The G20 meeting delivered 35 trillion yuan in monetary stimulus to deal with the epidemic and hedge against the global recession! Listen to his words and observe his deeds. The author foolishly believes that if the water release of Chinese currency can stop in the direction of world epidemic control and "Belt and Road", that is, to implement a community with a shared future for mankind, and to export inflation to the United States. It's not beautiful! The Federal Reserve needs China to prepare for the policy response to the imported inflation in non-American countries, especially in developing countries, regardless of the consequences of the secondary economic and social disasters brought about by the continuous development of the epidemic.
In short, benevolence sees benevolence and wisdom sees wisdom.
Third: the epidemic sweeps the west wind, how can the secondary disaster endure.
The outbreak period of the overseas epidemic situation, especially the United States Emperor has the tendency to catch up from behind, although the medical level is not moved, but the political and economic interests override the rest of the world.
Above, there is no suspense on the European and American epidemic Cup champion podium! For the good is the happiest, for the evil can not escape. A long way of good reincarnation, the vast sky spared who! Coronavirus is the common enemy of mankind at present, the practice of a community with a shared future for mankind is the truth, and the control of the epidemic bean base is the essential work of the United States, and it is also the concrete practice of being responsible to mankind. The United States not only does not face up to the main contradiction of the epidemic bean base, but gives priority to opening up an unlimited easing policy! If you hurt an "enemy" by 1000, you will injure yourself by 800. The Great Recession and the Great Depression are doomed! Similarly, overseas outbreaks have caused secondary disasters in China. There is no doubt that imports and exports shrank greatly in the second and third quarters.
Fourth: the story of farmers and snakes should not be forgotten.
During the period of the Yellow Crane Tower wearing a cover to fight the epidemic, the United States Emperor etiquette and shame, four-dimensional atelectasis. Many senior officials and dignitaries of the US imperialist government are afraid that China will not be disorderly and gloat, hoping that the epidemic will deal a fatal blow to China's economy and geopolitics, constantly attack and stigmatize the Chinese virus, and engage in political "epidemic poison." through the so-called "Taipei Act," the Senate and the House of Representatives have colluded with the jin Party of the people of Taiwan, colluded, grossly interfered in China's internal affairs and continued to escalate, and the media unscrupulously publicized false information by using a powerful network platform. Militarily, show off your muscles and make threats on the doorstep of China. No, no. It's hard to tell!
After the epidemic, the US Emperor further contained Greater China in an all-round way, and it was by no means alarmist! Chairman Mao's quotation: the United States imperialism will not die, we must always raise the police!
II. Prediction of the fundamentals of the Iron and Steel Industry
1. Der Spiegel is a high judge of supply and demand.
At present, the profit of long-process tonnage steel is 300-400, and some of the original long-process shutdown and maintenance are gradually resuming, even if the steel enterprises shut down by the epidemic in Hubei Province will resume production no later than mid-April. Independent electric arc furnace steel mills lose less than 100 yuan or even some of the steel enterprises that enjoy tax rebates and enjoy local government subsidies due to the downward movement of scrap prices. No, no. It can be determined that production in April has become normal.
Quantitative valuation: 6800 / 700 = 75 million tons
The long process output is 7.11 × 1.1 / 80 / 92 / 6.800, that is, 68 million tons.
The capacity utilization rate of independent electric arc furnace is 70%, 7 million tons.
The demand side.
Throughout the table trading volume in late March and eliminate speculative false demand, and combined with including but not limited to cement prices, concrete mixing stations, pipe pile demand, PC steel bar prices verify each other, and then peep at the start of real estate and steel net export trade considerations. The return period of qualitative demand in April is about 95% of the normal.
Quantitative valuation: 6966 tons 350 = 73.16 million tons
Domestic apparent demand: 7333mm 0.956966 (ten thousand tons)
Net exports are estimated at 3.5 million tons.
The relationship between supply and demand is broadly consistent.
2. Solution of towering floating Cloud in inventory
Seek proof according to the inertia of thinking:
The total inventory of five varieties is 35 million tons, and the total stock of rebar is 19.5 million tons. Even if the data in the table are objective and practical, the maximum inflection point of perennial inventory is still higher than about 10 million tons. Absolute high section of the inventory to the perennial inflection point value at least a month, steel price rebound road is a long way to go!
One is: precisely because the inventory is towering and floating clouds, there is now "land price" steel.
The second is: the steel mill price is determined, with the time dimension for the space dimension.
Third: the so-called inventory towering clouds, just used to the concept, get used to it! Inventory is only a static index of the relationship between supply and demand, and the essence of price is determined by the relationship between supply and demand.
3. The epidemic caused the absence of demand, there is no doubt to rush to make up for classes.
4. There is a high probability of retrograde strength along the Belt and Road.
To sum up, steel prices in April are still negative walking, the upper and lower driving forces are limited, in May into the ready stage, June is expected!
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