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[SMM Analysis] it is difficult to change the trend of rare earth prices in the short term when the prices of several rare earth varieties enter the bottom range.
Apr 29,2020 17:22CST
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Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM4, March 29: in recent years, with the rapid development of science and technology, the global consumption of rare earths is on the rise. At the same time, with the effective management of the supply side of China's rare earth industry, such as black fighting and environmental protection, the collection and storage effectively regulates the supply of rare earths and the mining of rare earths quotas, which plays a certain supporting role in the market

The global supply of rare earths increased sharply in 2019. China's total rare earth production control plan increased from 120000 tons to 132000 tons, and foreign rare earth production also continued to increase.

At the beginning of 2019, due to the short-term structural contradiction between supply and demand and other factors, the prices of major rare earth products remained low. By mid-May, trade frictions intensified and the attention of the rare earth industry increased significantly. At the same time, Myanmar's imported minerals were affected by the customs closure of ports, and the prices of major rare earth products rose rapidly. But as the trade situation eased and policy expectations failed, rare earth prices fell back quickly. The market has been weak in the second half of the year. For the whole year, in addition to the annual average price of some heavy rare earth elements such as terbium and dysprosium rose year on year, the average price of other rare earth elements declined greatly from the previous year.

As a strategic resource, rare earth is also widely used in industry. The demand for rare earth in new energy vehicles, robots, wind power, consumer electronics, unmanned ji, energy saving and environmental protection is expected to continue to grow in the future.

At present, according to the historical prices of rare earths in SMM, the historical prices of most rare earth oxides have reached the low level since 2017.

Prices of rare earth products have been mixed this week, with the May Day holiday approaching and the end of the month superimposed on the backdrop of shrinking orders for downstream companies in their own rare earths, and the overall trading situation in the rare earth market this week is generally weak. As far as light rare earths are concerned, downstream enterprises remain relatively weak during the week. Some metal factories purchase a small amount of praseodymium and neodymium oxide, resulting in a small rise in their prices, and the market is difficult to find. The current mainstream transaction price is 26.0-263000 yuan / ton, and some upstream businesses have high quotations, but the actual transaction is relatively difficult. Wednesday praseodymium oxide neodymium oxide price 26.2-265000 yuan / ton. In terms of medium and heavy rare earths, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide have recently declined again, mainly due to the decline in market sentiment and the drag of demand. Some upstream merchants are willing to offer loosely to adjust their prices. Dysprosium oxide 177-1.79 million yuan / ton, terbium oxide 389-3.94 million yuan / ton on Wednesday, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide prices rose slightly in the early market, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide prices rose slightly, the prices of dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide fell again recently, mainly due to the decline of market sentiment and the drag of demand. There are actually lower quotations in the market.

SMM believes that after May Day holiday, the short-term market transaction may continue to maintain a relatively weak state, praseodymium and neodymium oxide market significantly reduce the willingness to quote is limited, but subject to market demand, or continue to maintain a relatively stable situation in the short term. In the aspect of medium and heavy rare earths, the quotations of some upstream merchants are loose and dragged down by market demand, but some of them still remain relatively strong, so it is expected that the prices of heavy rare earths may be weak and stable in the short and medium term.

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