SMM4, March 30: today's focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate resolution (no bitmap) and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell (Jerome Powell) held a press conference.
In terms of data,
The US federal funds rate target ceiling for April (%), the rise and fall of interest rates, reflects the quality of the economy. During the period of vigorous economic development, raising interest rates means rapid economic growth and a high rate of return on investment, which is good for the dollar.
China's official manufacturing PMI, in April is a leading indicator of economic health-companies can respond quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers may represent the company's main view of the economy.
China's Caixin manufacturing PMI, in April was a leading indicator of economic health, with a reading above 50 indicating manufacturing expansion in favour of the Australian dollar. Conversely, below 50 indicates a contraction in China's manufacturing sector, which is bad for the Australian dollar.
The monthly rate of actual retail sales in Germany in March (%) is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which is the most important component of overall economic activity. An increase in retail sales boosted the euro.
Germany's unemployment rate after the quarterly adjustment in April (%), the unemployment rate is one of the most important economic indicators, deeply affected by the supply and demand of the labor market and the economic cycle, the level of unemployment rate also reflects the operation of the economy. Although seen as lagging indicators, the unemployed are an important indicator of overall economic health, as consumer spending is highly correlated with job market conditions.
The initial annual rate of CPI in the euro area in April (%), consumer prices are the most important part of overall inflation. Inflation is important for monetary valuation as rising prices will cause the central bank to raise interest rates in order to control inflation targets.
The quarterly GDP rate (%) after the quarterly adjustment in the eurozone in the first quarter is one of the most important indicators to measure the state of the British economy, one of the main indicators for the central bank to formulate monetary policy, and one of the bases for markets to predict the future direction of economic and monetary policy, so it will have a huge impact on the exchange rate.
Euro area unemployment rate in March (%), unemployment rate is one of the most important economic indicators, deeply affected by labor market supply and demand and economic cycle, the level of unemployment rate also reflects the operation of the economy. Although seen as lagging indicators, the unemployed are an important indicator of overall economic health, as consumer spending is highly correlated with job market conditions.
The European Central Bank's main refinancing rate (%) in April was the short-term interest rate, the most important parameter for exchange rate fluctuations-traders focused on other economic data, mostly to predict future interest rate changes. However, the market has usually made bets on the outcome of the interest rate resolution in advance.
As of April 25, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States (10,000), because the data are released every week, is the focus of the investment market, the sharp increase in unemployment, the US government's financial pressure has also increased, for the "double deficit terminal disease" of the U. S. economy is also a test, bad for the dollar.
The US PCE price index in March (%), in January 2012, the Fed set the core PCE annual growth rate of 2% as the long-term inflation target, since then announced that the Fed also has a clear inflation target. If the core PCE rises at an annual rate of more than 2 per cent, the Fed will tighten monetary policy, which is good for the dollar, bullish on gold, silver and copper, and vice versa.
The monthly rate of personal expenditure in the United States in March (%), the personal income index is an effective indicator to predict the spending power of individuals, the future purchase trend of consumers and to assess the quality of the economic situation. Income is closely related to spending, and the more available income consumers have, the more likely they are to spend more, the better for the economy and the better for the dollar.
The PMI, Chicago purchasing managers' index in Chicago in April is expressed as a percentage, often with 50 per cent as the dividing point between economic strength and weakness: that is, when the index is higher than 50 per cent, it is considered an expansion of the manufacturing sector, and when the index is below 50 per cent, especially when it is very close to 40 per cent, there are fears of a depression. The Chicago PMI is also a very important subsidiary indicator of leading indicators, which is valued by the market.
Important financial data for today:
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