Brief comment on SMM

Today, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened low at 42300 yuan / ton, opening short to reduce the short position of copper prices pulled up about 42300 yuan / ton. After that, the price of copper was suppressed to a daily low of 42130 yuan / ton. At this time, copper prices rebounded, climbing to the top of the daily moving average, closing at 42410 yuan / ton at noon. In the afternoon, the overall fluctuation of the disk is small, basically in the range of 42320-42390 yuan / ton to maintain stability. Near the close of the long departure, copper prices fell slightly, and finally closed at 42300 yuan / ton, down 260 yuan / ton, down 0.61%. Today, the daily position of the main copper contract in Shanghai decreased by 1613 hands to 113000 hands, mainly by the reduction of long positions, while the trading volume decreased by 27000 hands to 71000 hands. Shanghai Copper 2005 contract day reduction of a total of 5944 hands, to 51000 hands, mainly for the long reduction. The low opening of copper in Shanghai today was mainly affected by the decline in international crude oil prices. The largest oil-listed trading fund sold the June WTI crude contract, causing its price to fluctuate again, falling below $11, significantly widening the spread from the July contract. Fears of a collapse in crude oil prices have returned in the early days, dragging down copper prices. And basically in the face of copper prices still have support. In China, following the planned commercial collection and storage of Yunnan Province, Gansu Province has also formulated a storage plan for 436000 tons of non-ferrous metal products, the news boosted copper prices, and concerns about tight supply of copper mines remain, providing bottom support for copper prices. At present, Shanghai copper receives the cross star, the long and short sides game situation is still not clear, the rush high pressure is still big. Continue to pay attention to the global macro situation, can further push up the price of copper.

Spot market

Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot contract rose 110 yuan / ton to 150 yuan / ton, Pingshui copper transaction price 42370 yuan / ton ~ 42550 yuan / ton, Shengshui copper transaction price 42380 yuan / ton ~ 42560 yuan / ton. The copper in Shanghai period increased to 42400 yuan / ton, and the import of copper into the market increased within the week. Most of the holders were eager to speed up the exchange before the May Day holiday. The morning market quotation rose 130 ~ 150 yuan / ton, with few responders. The holder took the initiative to adjust and reduce the water, the quotation rose 120 ~ 130 yuan / ton, and the transaction was still difficult to attract until the good copper was adjusted to 120 yuan / ton, and Pingshui copper rose to 110 yuan / ton. The market only picked up when the market closed. Individual importers lead the sale of wet copper, the price is 70% 80 yuan / ton and there is still room for price reduction. Due to the lack of actual purchase support of downstream consumption, trade flow also tends to stop the cautious state before the festival, the holder shipments actively, the transaction continues to be weak, the characteristic of supply exceeding demand appears gradually.

Today, Guangdong electrolytic copper spot contract rose 250 ~ 260, the average price fell 40%; wet copper rose 200 ~ 210, the average price fell 40%. The average price of electrolytic copper fell 410 yuan / ton to 42545 yuan / ton, and the average price of wet copper fell 410 yuan / ton to 42495 yuan / ton. In the spot market, the demand for stock before the downstream festival is weak, coupled with the fact that the holders generally want to cash before the festival, they have taken the initiative to reduce the delivery of rising water one after another. As a result, the rising water continued to decline today, from good copper and flat water copper from 290300 yuan / ton in early trading to 240 yuan / ton at about 11:00, although the rate of reduction is relatively large, but there are still not many recipients, the overall transaction is not good. We expect that with the completion of stock, there will be an oversupply the day after tomorrow, and the rising water is expected to continue to decline.

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Yangshan copper

April 28, 2020: today's warehouse receipt quoted US $84-94 / ton, bill of lading quoted US $80-90 / ton, QP June. LME0-3 discount of $26 / ton, import losses narrowed to around 0.

Transactions in the foreign trade market continued to remain light today. The market quotation is concentrated in the arrival bill of lading in the middle and late May, and the holder's willingness to offer is not reduced, mainly due to the uncertain arrival of the goods due to unstable shipping schedule and the recent increase in the transportation cost of LME copper inventory. The quotation for the second brand bill of lading is about US $95 / ton.

On the demand side, market enquiries are slightly weaker today, with high quotations suppressing buyer demand. Warehouse receipt transactions also showed a stalemate. The transaction price of fire good copper warehouse bill is about 94 US dollars / ton, mainstream fire method 90 US dollars / ton, wet method 84 US dollars / ton, good copper bill of lading 90 US dollars / ton, mainstream fire 85 US dollars / ton, wet 80 US dollars / ton.

Stock

LME copper stocks today were 256150 tonnes, down 2325 tonnes, or 0.9 per cent, from the previous trading day.

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