4.28 minutes of SMM Aluminium Internal Morning meeting
Trading: yesterday's dollar index closed at 100.04, down 0.18%, or 0.18%, in the small negative line. Lun Aluminium closed yesterday at $1507 / ton, down $7.50 / ton, down 0.5%. LME aluminum metal stocks rose another 18850 tons to 1.3368 million tons yesterday, and Shanghai Aluminum main Force 2006 closed yesterday at 12410 yuan / ton, up 125 yuan / ton, or 1.02%.
Macro: 1) according to real-time statistics from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 00:31 Beijing time on April 28, the number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in the world has exceeded 3 million, reaching 3002303, and the number of deaths has reached 208131. Among them, more than 1 million cases were confirmed in the United States. (bearish) from January to March, the total profits of industrial enterprises above the national scale totaled 781.45 billion yuan, down 36.7 percent from the same period last year, or 1.6 percentage points less than in the period from January to February. At the end of March, the accounts receivable of industrial enterprises above and above were 14.04 trillion yuan, up 7.3 percent from the same period last year, and the inventory of finished products was 4.38297 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.9 percent. (neutral) WTI crude oil June futures closed down 24.56 per cent at $12.78 a barrel, after falling as low as $11.88 a barrel. The 13th meeting of the Central Commission for comprehensively deepening Reform on 27 April pointed out that it is necessary to improve the support capacity of public health emergency materials, speed up the construction of a new national system for tackling key core technologies, make up for weaknesses, strong and weak points, and plug loopholes. We should focus on building a standardized, transparent, open, dynamic and resilient capital market, and promote basic institutional reforms such as issuance, listing, information disclosure, trading and delisting. (lidocaine) fundamentals: 1) on April 27, SMM counted the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China (including SHFE warehouse receipts): 161000 tons in Shanghai, 56.2 tons in Wuxi, 94000 tons in Gongyi, 265000 tons in the South China Sea, and the total inventory of aluminum ingots in consumer areas totaled 1.283 million tons, down 76000 tons per week. China's imports of bauxite reached a record high of 10.0062 million tons in March, an increase of 10.63 percent over the same period last year, with Guinea, Australia and Indonesia accounting for more than 95 percent of the total. (neutral) in March, the net import of alumina was 330300 tons, and from January to March, the cumulative net import was 995000 tons. Imported alumina in March suppressed domestic alumina prices, but with the reduction in domestic alumina production, the downward space is expected to continue to be limited. China exported a total of 134400 tons of aluminum foil products in March 2020, up 53.28 percent from the previous month, up 7.10 percent from the same period last year. In March 2020, China's total export of aluminum sheet and strip was 256000 tons, an increase of 61.03 percent over the previous month, and an increase of 4.42 percent over the same period last year. In March 2020, the import of unwrought aluminum alloy was 83200 tons, an increase of 1049.5% over the same period last year and 44.8% over the previous month. Total exports of aluminum-related products are expected to decline from April to May. According to SMM, Gansu Province is working out the "implementation Plan for the Reserve of Nonferrous Metals in Gansu Province," which reserves 436000 tons of non-ferrous metal products, including 80, 000 tons of copper, 300000 tons of aluminum, 40, 000 tons of zinc, 15000 tons of nickel and 1000 tons of cobalt. The period of reserve of non-ferrous metals is tentatively set at seven months (from 1 May 2020 to 31 December 2020). Spot end: yesterday morning, Shanghai Wuxi area holder quoted between 12490-12510 yuan / ton, the spot price rose 50 yuan / ton compared with the previous day, the surface rising water concentrated in 50-70 yuan / ton, 10:30 later aluminum uplink, the holder quotation increased accordingly, began to focus on 12520-12540 yuan / ton. Prices in Hangzhou are concentrated in the range of 12520-12540 yuan per ton today. Transactions in East China were generally more active on the same day. Summary: at present, the domestic epidemic situation is basically under control, the macro atmosphere has improved, and the arrival and supply of aluminum ingots on the supply and demand side have decreased in the short term. Under the background of gradual improvement in terminal consumption, the demand for goods in advance of May Day has surged. It is expected that spot and futures aluminum prices will remain strong and fluctuate before the festival, and the scope for decline will be limited.
(SMM Xuman 021-51595898)