[minutes of SMM Aluminum Internal Morning meeting] short-term arrival is difficult to improve rapidly. Spot is expected to be stronger than futures this week.

4.27 minutes of morning meeting in SMM aluminum

On Friday, the dollar index closed at 100.22, down 0.28, or 0.28%, with the center of gravity above all moving averages. Lun Aluminum closed Friday at 1514.5 US dollars / ton, up 4.50 US dollars / ton, or 0.3% last Friday. LME aluminum inventory rose 10200 tons to 1.3179 million tons last Friday. Shanghai Aluminum's main 2006 contract closed last Friday at 12285 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton, or 0.33%.

Macro aspect: 1) according to the tracking data of Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 7: 00 Beijing time on April 27th, there were 2965363 confirmed cases and 206265 deaths of COVID-19 worldwide. The number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States has reached 963379 and the number of deaths has reached 54810. Other countries with more than 20,000 deaths include Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United Kingdom. The 17th meeting of the standing Committee of the 13th National people's Congress (NPC) was held in Beijing from April 26 to 29. (neutral) 3) on April 26, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued a notice on the continuation of preferential tax policies in inclusive finance, saying that some of the notices provide for the implementation of preferential tax policies that expire on December 31, 2019, the implementation period is extended to December 31, 2023. (lidocaine)

Fundamentals: 1) SMM weekly survey shows that the operating rate increased slightly last week, the overall is still stable. The bright spot focuses on the consumption of building materials and medical materials, and the order of aluminum plate and strip enterprises in Henan has surged into a new bright spot. It is expected that the weakening of new orders caused by weaker export orders will not be evident in April, and the start of the aluminum processing industry will remain stable next week. (Lido aluminum) 2) due to the shortage of waste aluminum supply and high prices, almost all aluminum water bar enterprises completely stop the addition of cold materials, and most of the melting bar enterprises purchase A00 aluminum directly, A00 aluminum has become the main raw material of remelting rods, so that non-standard melting rods almost disappear in the market. According to SMM, in the near future, due to the increasing demand for aluminum water in the lower reaches around some aluminum plants, the proportion of ingots in electrolytic aluminum plants has decreased, and the volume of aluminum ingots has been restrained. Therefore, in the short term, the volume of goods delivered to the main places of consumption will not rise significantly, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the impact of changes in spot water levels in consumer areas on the willingness of aluminum plants to ship. The Yunnan Provincial Government issued a circular on "several measures to support the development of the real economy", the first of which is to support key enterprises to carry out commercial collection and storage of non-ferrous metal products. In accordance with the principle of "enterprise collection and storage, bank loans, financial subsidies, market operation, self-financing", the province's copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, germanium, indium and other key non-ferrous metal products commercial collection and storage, the total amount of collection and storage is about 800000 tons, the collection and storage time is one year. (a lot of money)

Spot end: last Friday, Shanghai Wuxi area holder quoted between 12440-12460 yuan / ton, the spot price fell 20 yuan / ton from yesterday, the surface rising water concentrated in 40-60 yuan / ton, Hangzhou area price concentrated in 12480-12490 yuan / ton on the same day. Before noon, the shipper is more active, a large customer to carry out the procurement plan is more active, the sale is active, the later part of the middleman tends to receive the goods, on the whole, the traders are busy before noon. Because of the demand for stock on Friday, the downstream showed signs of stock on the same day, and the purchase was more positive. The overall transaction in East China was better on the same day.

Summary: the arrival of aluminum ingots in the short-term market is less, and there is a partial speculative hoarding of aluminum ingots in the lower reaches of the market. It is expected that the spot is still stronger than the futures this week. It is expected that the disk aluminum price will maintain a strong shock range in the short term. Observe the resistance of 12800-13000 yuan / ton above. Pay attention to the impact of macro stimulus news that may exist at the end of the month on the market.

(SMM Xuman 021-51595898)