SMM, April 24-supply: the start-up load in Xinjiang continued to decline in April, and the two major factories continued to reduce production due to problems such as ore tension, and there was no plan to increase production in May. Construction in the southern producing areas was basically stable in April, and only Nujiang in Yunnan Province had a clear plan to increase production in May. Although the electricity price in Sichuan was lowered to flat water on April 25, most silicon plants were not willing to resume production.
Demand: aluminum alloy main terminal car consumption is weak, coupled with export hindered reasons for primary and recycled aluminum alloy production reduction phenomenon in April; silicone monomer enterprise shipment pressure, DMC prices continue to lower, individual monomer plant from the end of the month began to overhaul, the overall start-up load of the industry decreased slightly; polysilicon entered a state of loss in the industry, first-line manufacturers began to reduce production to alleviate cash flow pressure.
There are only a small number of long orders and bulk orders in the export market. Several foreign aluminium plants that had planned to invite tenders at the end of April postponed tenders and delayed delivery orders in the second quarter to the second half of the year.
Lido: Yunnan drought less electricity, ore and charcoal imports suspended, recruitment difficulties increased, Xinjiang ore tension;
Negative: exports are difficult to recover in the short term, the three major downstream starts to decline, the flood period is approaching an increase in supply, petroleum coke, clean coal prices.
SMM point of view: pessimism about consumption is the common view of most market participants, but it is difficult for silicon prices to continue to decline when supply is not effectively supplemented in May. Cost and supply will be the main driving force to support the stabilization of silicon prices in May. After the flood season comes in June, the downward pressure on silicon prices will be greater after the increase in supply and the downward movement of costs.
Other: [the decline in car production and sales narrowed in March] in March, car production and sales totaled 1.422 million and 1.43 million respectively, up 399.2 percent and 361.4 percent from the previous month, down 44.5 percent and 43.3 percent respectively from the same period last year, and the decline was 35.3 and 35.8 percentage points lower than in February, respectively.
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