4.24 minutes of SMM Aluminium Internal Morning meeting
Trading: yesterday, the dollar index closed at 100.5, up 0.17%, or 0.17%, above all moving averages; Lunalco closed yesterday at $1510 / ton, down $10 / ton, down 0.66%, and LME aluminum metal stocks rose 9600 tons to 1.3077 million tons yesterday. Shanghai Aluminum main 2006 contract closed yesterday at 12245 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton, or 0.41%.
Macro: 1) according to real-time data from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of about 07:30 Beijing time on April 24, the total number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in the world has reached 2708590. The United States has the largest number of confirmed cases, with a total of 873137 confirmed cases. (bearish) 2) the four-week average of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States as of April 18 (10,000), previous value: 550.85, announced: 578.65. Agency reviews of initial jobless claims in the United States until April 18: initial jobless claims fell for the third consecutive week last week, but the cumulative number of jobless claims reached 26.5 million in the five weeks, the worst recession in the U. S. labor market since the Great Depression. (bearish margin) 3) the initial value of Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States in April, the previous value: 48.5, expected: 35, released: 36.9. The reported value fell to its lowest level in 11 years. Initial manufacturing PMI in the eurozone in April was 33.6, the lowest level since March 2009. Manufacturing PMI in the UK in April: 47.8, expected: 42, announced: 32.9, the UK manufacturing PMI, services PMI and composite PMI all recorded record lows in April. (bearish) 4) markets had expected more fiscal and monetary stimulus, the US House of Representatives was expected to approve a new stimulus package and a fourth bailout bill was brewing, while the EU was considering a $2.2 trillion recovery plan. (Lido)
Fundamentals: 1) on April 23, SMM counted the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China (including SHFE warehouse receipts): 167000 tons in Shanghai, 57.7 tons in Wuxi, 286000 tons in the South China Sea, 118000 tons in Gongyi area, and the total inventory of aluminum ingots in consumer areas totaled 1.359 million tons, down 136000 tons per week. Among them, the decline was the most obvious in Guangdong, East China and Gongyi. (lido) 2) demand in Guangdong and Shanghai is good, with aluminum bar stocks down 19300 tons to 145600 tons from last Thursday. (lido) 3) the sixth batch of waste aluminum approval document is only 1030 tons, according to SMM analysis, the main reason for the current shortage of domestic waste aluminum supply is still due to the impact of the epidemic situation, one is the reduction of aluminum consumption and the reduction of waste aluminum output, the second is the sharp drop in the center of gravity of aluminum prices in the early stage, the overall loss of waste aluminum inventory before the festival, and maintain the sale of waste aluminum, third, the bottom pickup workers start work is low, the new waste aluminum into the market efficiency is low. Imported waste aluminum will not ease the gap, and Q2 domestic waste aluminum supply is expected to remain tight. (lido) 4) at present, the market aluminum bar processing fees and waste aluminum prices remain strong, the market supply of waste aluminum and aluminum bars are tight, to a certain extent, reverse to promote the increase in demand for aluminum ingots. (a lot of money)
Spot side: yesterday morning, Shanghai Wuxi area holder quoted between 12470-12480 yuan / ton, the spot price rose more than 200 yuan / ton compared with yesterday, the surface rising water concentrated in 4050 yuan / ton, Hangzhou area price concentrated in 12480-12500 yuan / ton yesterday. In the morning, a large household actively carried out procurement plans in Shanghai and tin, traders traded actively, transactions were better, aluminum prices fell back after 10: 30, and most of the holders began to quote on the disk, the rising water remained unchanged, the price concentrated between 12440-12460 yuan / ton, due to the end of procurement, some traders turned to wait-and-see attitude, trading began to hesitate, the heat of transactions fell back significantly earlier. Downstream on-demand procurement yesterday, due to the sharp rise in aluminum prices, the enthusiasm for buying goods has been restrained to a certain extent. East China as a whole closed better yesterday.
Conclusion: the global economic concern caused by the medium-term epidemic is difficult to solve, and the macro-deflation effect always exists. At present, the terminal consumer plate, especially the real estate plate is gradually recovering, the fundamental consumer side is better than the previous period, it is expected that the aluminum price before May Day will maintain a strong shock, the upper 1280013000 yuan / ton resistance is still relatively large, pay attention to the domestic possible macro-control means in the past two weeks.
(SMM Xuman 021-51595898)
