4.24 Summary of Bronze Morning Association
[4.24 SMM Bronze Morning meeting minutes] Macro aspect: 1) A new round of small business bailout bill in the United States has been passed by enough votes in the House of Representatives, which will be submitted to Trump for signature into law. The bill would provide $484 billion in aid. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States reached 4.427 million in the week to April 18, the third consecutive week of decline, but the cumulative number of jobless claims reached 26.5 million in the five weeks, the worst recession in the U. S. labor market since the Great Depression. 3) the initial value of Markit manufacturing PMI in the United Kingdom in April was 32.9, much lower than expected, 42, and 47.8 in the earlier period. The initial value of Markit manufacturing PMI in the euro area in April was 33.6, expected to be 38, up from 44.5. Fundamentals: 1) Copper production fell 20 per cent in the first quarter from a year earlier after Australia-based MMG declared force majeure at its Peruvian Las Bambas mine under restrictions related to the outbreak. The mine's copper concentrate production fell 28 per cent from a year earlier to 73319 tonnes. Shipments have also been adversely affected and are now suspended, MMG said. The Peruvian port of Matarani has run out of stocks. The company has declared force majeure to the Las Bambas copper and molybdenum concentrate sales agreement. [Lido] 2) the price difference of scrap copper yesterday was 86 yuan / ton, calculated at 6.3%. The supply of goods in the market is still relatively small, a considerable number of downstream manufacturers in the case of difficult to purchase scrap copper, continue the early conversion to electrolytic copper production. In addition, the solid waste Center announced the sixth batch of import restriction approval documents for 2020 on April 23. A total of six copper-related enterprises were approved this time, with an approved import volume of 2150 tons, a relatively small quantity, and more than 90% of them fell in Jiangxi. The total number of scrap copper import approvals for the first six batches this year is 529800 tons, accounting for about 94 percent of last year. The approval volume is relatively loose. The policy on renewable copper resources will soon be implemented in July this year. At this point in time, the market expects that the volume of subsequent approvals should not be too large. [Lido] 3) the import price window of imported copper continued to open yesterday, and market enquiries remained positive. Warehouse receipts and bills of lading were raised respectively, boosted by market demand for purchases. Due to the good price comparison in recent months, the warehouse receipt and the recent arrival bill of lading are favored by the buyer. There are still deals under the high offer. In recent months, the supply of bills of lading to Hong Kong is tight, and the transaction price remains high. At present, there are differences in the quotation of bills of lading arriving in Hong Kong in the middle and late May, and the transaction performance is relatively light. 4) stocks of LME copper stocks decreased by 1100 tons to 263425 tons on April 23, while copper warehouse receipt stocks in the previous period decreased by 11769 tons to 132128 tons. (5) spot East China: in the spot aspect, copper futures rebounded to a large extent, holders maintained high prices, downstream buying fell significantly, traders had limited speculative space, and the characteristics of saws on both sides of the supply and demand sides were obvious. It is estimated that the water will rise by 170 yuan to 190 yuan per ton today. South China: Guangdong electrolytic copper spot contract rose 270-280 yesterday to the current month. In the spot market, a large number of purchases downstream the day before yesterday, coupled with the reduction in arrivals, significantly reduced inventories by more than 4,000 tons. Stimulated by this, holders did not pay attention to the sharp rise in copper prices to continue to increase water shipments. However, due to the sharp rise in copper prices and discounted water, yesterday's market trading was significantly lower than the day before yesterday, downstream procurement volume decreased. Overall, although market trading activity has declined today, the rising water is still rising, and we expect the rising water to continue to fluctuate higher before May Day. Copper price and forecast: last night, Lun copper closed at 5139.5 US dollars / ton, up 0.6%, trading volume 13000 hands, short positions reduced 957 hands to 260000 hands. Last night, copper prices rose and fell, stimulated by the sharp rise in US crude oil, Lun copper rose to $5208 / ton in the evening, but the market is still uncertain about the future demand prospects, the dollar index refreshed to 100.69 since April 7, oil prices and copper prices subsequently fell back at the same time. On the macro front, the EU summit failed to reach an agreement on the economic stimulus package, and the prospects for economic recovery in the euro area have been affected. Yesterday, copper closed Yang, currently entangled in a number of moving average positions, is expected to be a narrow shock in the short term. Today's copper is expected to be 5100-5150 US dollars / ton, Shanghai copper 41800-42200 yuan / ton.