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Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on April 22
Apr 22,2020 19:45CST
Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on April 22
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM, 22 April:

Copper: today's Yapanlun copper opened at $5070 / tonne, after the opening, Lunlun copper briefly rose to a daily high of $5080 / tonne line. Brent crude oil prices also tumbled today as the collapse in Monday's May WTI crude oil futures contract spread to forward contracts, causing June contracts to tumble on Tuesday. The historic low of oil prices stimulated the market risk aversion heightened, after the domestic opening, Lun copper plummeted below the $5000 / ton mark, as low as $4973.5 / supported in the 20-day moving average position, copper prices hit bottom, but still under pressure, consolidation near the $5000 mark, copper prices jumped in the afternoon, rushed over the daily moving average, the center of gravity moved up to 503550USD / ton range shock. Entering the European session, the United Kingdom released March CPI data, March CPI annual rate of 1.5%, down from the previous month, mainly caused by the epidemic blockade measures superimposed by falling oil prices. The data fell within expectations and had no negative impact on basic metals. Nonferrous rose again, climbing $5083 / tonne to $5068 as of 17: 30, up $41.50 / Dun or 0.85%. The dollar index was at 100.052 and US crude oil was up at $10.68 a barrel. In the evening, we looked at changes in crude oil inventories in the US EIA during the week and consumer confidence in the euro area in April. At present, U. S. crude oil is still low weak pressure, Lun copper closed negative, the top pressure 5 and 10 moving averages. Waiting for the guidance of the dollar and crude oil at night, test whether Lun copper can effectively hold the $5000 / tonne mark and then store more than $5100 / tonne.

Today, the Shanghai copper main contract short opened at 41200 yuan / ton, the opening short, copper prices were suppressed straight down pierced 41000 yuan / ton mark, briefly rebounded again fell to the day's lowest point of 40350 yuan / ton, down nearly 1,000 yuan. At this time short on the low to leave the market, copper prices rebounded and around 40700 yuan / ton position horizontal finishing, midday closed at 41200 yuan / ton. At the start of trading in the afternoon, the price of copper rose above the daily average line, followed by a fluctuating rise in copper prices, closing at 41090 yuan / ton, down 620 yuan / ton, or 1.49%. Today, the main force of copper in Shanghai increased its position by 6707 hands to 122000 hands, mainly by short positions, while trading volume increased by 22000 hands to 140000 hands. The daily position of the Shanghai Copper Index increased by 12000 hands to 337000 hands, mainly by short positions, and trading volume increased by 45000 hands to 305000 hands. Shanghai Copper 2005 contract day reduction of 7725 to 73000 hands, mainly for the long reduction. Within days, Shanghai copper jumped short again, mainly due to the oil market panic transmitted to the global capital markets. The collapse in oil prices has spread over the long term. WTI6's monthly contracts were also affected after falling into negative territory for the first time in WTI5's history, tumbling 70 per cent in intraday trading on Tuesday. Oil prices also fell sharply, falling more than 15 per cent at one point, refreshing a 21-year low. Markets are more pessimistic about the prospects for the global economy. Fundamentally, tight copper supply continues to support copper prices, with Antofagasta, a Chilean miner, announcing that it will cut its 2020 copper production target and cut its capital expenditure plan as a result of the outbreak. Shanghai copper closed down today, MACD Hongzhu continued to shrink, the top pressure 5, 10, 40 day moving average. After that, we will focus on whether the bulls can continue to work hard at the low level to support the rise in copper prices.

Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot price for the current month contract rose 170 yuan / ton ~ 190 yuan / ton, flat water copper transaction price 40970 yuan / ton ~ 41090 yuan / ton, Shengshui copper transaction price 40980 yuan / ton ~ 41100 yuan / ton. Increased concerns in the crude oil market, dragging down commodities, Shanghai copper fell below the EMA support, down more than 1,000 yuan, down 2.45%, fell to around 40800 yuan / ton, under the sharp drop in the market, the holder raised his offer to 170 ~ 190 yuan / ton, Pingshui copper maintained stability in 170 ~ 180 yuan / ton, good copper remained at 180 ~ 190 yuan / ton, and the source of low-priced goods still attracted some traders to buy. But today, there is little room to lower prices; Wet copper quotation at the same time up, the holder of high prices in the water 140 yuan / ton or so. Copper futures for two days continuous negative, downstream enterprises bargain replenishment, buying transactions improved; although traders have the willingness to receive goods, but the price is difficult to achieve the desired, the holder is more willing to raise water, the target rising water 200 yuan / ton, but the current stalemate state is difficult to support rising water smoothly again. In the afternoon, the center of gravity of the disk runs above the 41000-41200 yuan / ton range, the spot rising water stays firm, the flat water copper rises 180 yuan / ton, the good copper rises 190 yuan / ton, some individual holder already has raised the water 200 yuan / ton, quotes, but the transaction is still difficult to accept, the transaction price rises in 41230-41400 yuan / ton.

Aluminum: aluminum opened at $1490.5 a tonne on Wednesday morning. At the beginning of the Asian session, the short horizontal plate of Lunlun aluminum revolved around 1490 US dollars / ton, with a fluctuation of about 10 US dollars / ton, and the pressure of 1500 US dollars / ton above was obvious. In the afternoon Beijing time, the plate followed the rise of Shanghai Aluminum, rising from 1486.5 US dollars / ton to 1499 US dollars / ton, and 1500 US dollars was blocked again. Then a long upper film line fell back and continued to maintain the range of 14901495 US dollars, as of 17:33 Beijing time. Lun aluminum closed at 1492 US dollars / ton, the daily K line temporarily closed a small positive line, the upper 5-day moving average resistance position is obvious. Expected to run in the evening aluminum range of $14801500 / ton, $1500 breakthrough pressure is strong, need to continue to pay attention to the overseas macro situation change guidelines.

The 2006 contract of Shanghai Aluminum Company was opened at 12085 yuan / ton in the morning. At the beginning of the session, the short side increased its position in a small amount, and the disk reached the lowest level of 12045 yuan / ton in the day, close to the ten thousand two mark, and the long side increased its position continuously, pushing the market up to 12245 yuan / ton, and closing at 12195 yuan / ton, up 90 yuan / ton, or 0.74%, from the close of the previous day. Trading volume decreased by 21995 hands to 117000 hands, position increased by 868 hands to 128000 hands, mainly to increase positions, daily K line closed a small positive line. Strong spot within the day, East China in the month in the rising water 3050 yuan / ton, pushing up the Shanghai aluminum back structure in recent months further enlarged, as of today's close, Shanghai aluminum 2005-2006 contract price difference expanded to 85 yuan / ton. Near the long single end, the liquidity of the spot market is relatively tight, aluminum prices are expected to remain relatively strong in recent months, the lower position of 12000 yuan / ton can be supported. It is expected that tomorrow Shanghai aluminum company 2006 contract shock operation in 12000-12250 yuan / ton.

In the early afternoon, aluminum was suppressed first and then raised. Shanghai Wuxi area holder quotation between 12250-12270 yuan / ton, compared with yesterday's price is basically flat, disk rising water concentrated in 30-50 yuan / ton, before noon, a large customer received the goods more actively, the market sentiment is better, the holder delivers the goods actively, the middleman receives the goods also obviously active, the transaction between the two sides is good, the market transaction heat drops back after 11: 30. Downstream today on-demand procurement, buying enthusiasm is general. East China as a whole closed well today. In the afternoon, aluminum rose, the holder quoted in the vicinity of 12320 yuan / ton, the disk rose water about 40 yuan / ton, only a small number of transactions between traders, few downstream.

Lead: within the day, Lun lead opened at US $1663.5 / ton. In the Asian period, due to the weak trend of lead in Shanghai, the center of gravity of Lun lead moved down to around US $1650 / ton. In the afternoon, the US index weakened, and Lun lead took the opportunity to lift the center of gravity to US $1660 / ton. Entering the European period, Lun lead continued to concussion market, as of 17: 35, Lun lead temporarily closed at US $1660.5 / ton, down US $2 / ton, down 0.12 per cent. Lun lead temporarily closed a long shadow shade line, under pressure 5-day moving average, and down the channel down, if the U. S. crude oil plummeted again at night, Lun lead may be unable to protect the $1650 / ton support platform.

Within days, the Shanghai lead main force 2006 contract opened at 13550 yuan / ton, the original collapse dragged down the collective weakness of non-ferrous metals, Shanghai lead followed by the next line to 13425 yuan / ton, then undertake to enter the market, Shanghai lead slowly upward repair, afternoon, driven by Shanghai zinc strength, Shanghai lead once climbed to 13735 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton, up 0.29%, the position increased to 25113 hands. Shanghai lead closed at the Xiaoyang line, running along the 13500 yuan / ton platform, the trend of the medium-and short-term moving average line has leveled off. At present, the increment of the supply side is not obvious. Short-selling funds dare not wantonly enter the market for the time being. First, pay attention to the inventory changes this week. After May Day holiday, the inventory situation may usher in an inflection point.

In the south of Shanghai market, Shuikoushan lead 14215-14265 yuan / ton, Shanghai lead 2005 contract 430-480 yuan / ton, Wuxi Shuikoushan lead 14185-14235 yuan / ton, Shanghai lead 2005 contract 400-450 yuan / ton. Lead weak consolidation, holders due to less supply of goods in circulation, quotation to maintain a high water state, downstream is still long single procurement, some bulk orders to supplement on demand, the spot market transaction volume is not large. Lead ingot circulation supply is less spot rising water performance is strong.

South China lead in Guangdong market is 14005 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead is 80 yuan / ton. Henan Yuguang, Wanyang, Jinli and other smelters to cross long list: Hunan Shuikoushan 14025 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead up 100 yuan / ton (traders); Jiang copper 14025 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM net rose 100 yuan / ton; Henan basic pre-sale ended, this week to long single mainly, other areas refineries maintain high water quotation, the overall transaction is still good, and there is no continuous deterioration.

Zinc: Geneva zinc opened at US $1909 / ton, the collapse of crude oil at the beginning of the day still had a negative impact on market investment sentiment. Lun Zinc pressure daily average line was arranged in a narrow range near the US $1900 / ton mark. In the afternoon, along with the decline in the US dollar, Zinc revised upward, fluctuating upward but weakening, recording a daily high of US $1922 / ton and then turning down. By 17: 25, Lun Zinc closed up at US $1919 / ton, up 10 US dollars / ton, or 0.52%. Lun Zinc received a small pillar, the overall optimistic situation of zinc fundamentals has not changed, but macroscopically, the impact of epidemic situation and crude oil trend on investment sentiment can not be ignored, it is expected that Lun zinc will not have a strong performance in the short term, but 1900 US dollars / ton pass support is expected to be effective.

Intraday Shanghai zinc main force 2006 contract opened at 15625 yuan / ton, morning Shanghai zinc in 16650 yuan / ton near narrow fluctuations, the operation is more stable, afternoon with buying funds re-enter, Shanghai zinc up the center of gravity directly moved up to 15850 yuan / ton near temporary finishing, the final closing price rose 15860 yuan / ton, up 1.44%, trading volume decreased 29790 hands to 131000 hands, position increased by 494 hands to 89522 hands. Shanghai zinc turned red backfill most of yesterday's decline, the long buying strength appeared again, at the same time, more funds poured into the far month contract, the monthly difference between the contract has narrowed within days, the current basic oriented pattern has not been broken, Shanghai zinc may return to the Wanliu pass as the goal of operation.

Shanghai zinc mainstream transaction in 15880-15970 yuan / ton, Shuangyan transaction in 15910-16000 yuan / ton; zinc general price of 220-230 yuan / ton in May; Shuangyan reported 250-260 yuan / ton in May; zinc mainstream transaction in 15800-15900 yuan / ton. Shanghai zinc 2005 contract low rebounded, the morning market closed at 15720 yuan / ton. Smelter normal shipment, this week within the long order will expire, traders procurement and delivery more active, some holders homeopathic price, early market domestic quotation up to rising water 230-250 yuan / ton, the increase in market acceptance is not high, to SMM average price + 10 5 yuan / ton transaction is more active, at the same time, traders reported rising water 200 yuan / ton shipment, but the volume of goods less did not cause too much waves. Entering the second trading period, the market quotation held steady at 220-230 yuan / ton, Shuangyan Huize reported 250-260 yuan / ton, the market all had transactions, but the disk rose back up and the discount rose significantly, and the willingness to buy downstream decreased, only to do just-needed procurement, the main transaction within the day was contributed by traders.

The mainstream transaction in Ningbo was 15910-16010 yuan / ton, and the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai ordinary brands widened from 20 yuan / ton to 30 yuan / ton, the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai increased from 20 yuan / ton to 30 yuan / ton. Today, due to the large demand for long orders in the Shanghai market, traders actively buy and raise water, and the Ningbo market follows slightly. Because the circulation of goods in the market is very tight, in the first period of the morning, the market quotation is concentrated in Tiefeng and Huize near 270 yuan / ton for the May contract. Hualian and Kirin reported 300 yuan / ton for the May contract, which is converted according to the average freight rate of 40 yuan / ton in the city. Basically equivalent to the May contract rose by about 260 yuan / ton, imported zinc KZ reported on the May contract rose by 290 yuan / ton. Today, the market is slightly lower, the rising water is relatively strong, the market inquiry willingness is significantly less than yesterday, the market trading is very light.

Guangdong zinc mainstream transaction in 15650-15780 yuan / ton, the quotation focused on Shanghai zinc 2006 contract rose 50-70 yuan / ton, Guangdong stock market compared with Shanghai stock market discount 190 yuan / ton increased by 60 yuan compared with the previous trading day. In the first trading session, the quotation of individual cardholders was higher than yesterday, but the transaction was completed quickly, coupled with the higher quotation in the Shanghai market and the strong sentiment in the late market, the quotation was raised as a whole. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize, Tiefeng quoted price for Shanghai zinc June contract rose 5060 / ton. The second trading period, downstream bargains into the market procurement, as a result of the recent Guangdong supply has been sent to East China, Tianjin and other places, the holder is optimistic about the subsequent spot water performance, the overall price is high, the water price continues to rise. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize and Tiefeng quoted 60-80 yuan per ton for the June contract. Qilin, Mengzi, Huize, Tiefeng mainstream transaction in 15650-15780 yuan / ton.

The mainstream transaction of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 15970-17260 yuan / ton, that of ordinary brands was 15970-16090 yuan / ton, and that of the 2005 contract was 270yuan / ton to 350yuan / ton. Compared with Shanghai stock market, Tianjin market decreased from 140yuan / ton to 130yuan / ton. Low shock of zinc in Shanghai today. The spot market increases the discount quotation, the quotation is more unified, the ordinary brand lark newspaper in the 05 contract bid up 280 yuan / ton, the red gold newspaper in the 05 contract rose 350 yuan / ton, Chi Hong reported in the 05 contract rose 270 yuan / ton, the high price brand Zijin to the May contract rose 350 yuan / ton, before noon Zijin rose to 380 yuan / ton. The low price of zinc today fluctuated, driven by a larger increase in the discount rate in the Shanghai market, Tianjin traders raised the discount water delivery, in which Chihong has arrived one after another, the market liquidity has been restored; downstream, the spot price today is flat than yesterday, the willingness to receive goods downstream has not yet seen a significant improvement, still maintain the need to purchase, Zijin take the goods better. On the whole, the transaction today is flat compared with yesterday. The transaction of zinc ingot is near 15920-16040 yuan / ton.

Tin: after the opening of 14760 US dollars / ton today, the Asian plate quickly fell to 14600 US dollars / ton at the beginning of the Asian session, and continued this upward trend after the opening of the European market. As of 17: 00, the latest price of Lunxi is 14850 US dollars / ton, showing a small positive line, and the lower shadow line is supported by the 20-day moving average. It is expected that the resistance above Lunxi is near the integer level of 15000 US dollars / ton, and the lower support is near the 20-day moving average of 14500 US dollars / ton. This evening, you can pay attention to the changes in EIA crude oil stocks in the week of April 17 (10,000 barrels).

Shanghai tin main force 2006 contract opened today 124840 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day affected by the impact of short positions quickly fell to a daily low of 122200 yuan / ton. Subsequently, the long and short forces all reduced their positions, and the tin center of gravity in Shanghai rose slightly, maintaining a horizontal arrangement of 123400 yuan / ton above the daily average. finally, it closed at 123250 yuan / ton, down 2280 yuan / ton, down 1.82%, trading volume 31711 hands, position 32628 hands, an increase of 268 hands. Today, Shanghai tin closed with a negative line, and the lower shadow line is located near the 20-day moving average. Shanghai tin under the test of the early horizontal plate interval on the track 122000 yuan / ton near the support level.

Spot market, today quoted 128500-130000 yuan / ton, Shanghai tin disk first suppressed and then raised the center of gravity overall downward, Shanghai tin spot market quotation is numerous and complicated. On the demand side, enterprises in the lower reaches of the day have a wait-and-see mood to maintain the need for procurement, and traders receive a small number of goods. Shanghai tin spot market overall transaction atmosphere is general. Shanghai tin 2006 contract set Yunxi rising water 6000-6500 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word rising water 5000-5500 yuan / ton, small brand rising water 4500-5000 yuan / ton.

Nickel: Lunni opened at $12200 / ton today. After entering the sub-session, Lunni was dragged down by the Shanghai nickel diving. The two declines pierced the 40-day moving average and the 10-day moving average, the lowest diving to $11795 / ton, and then recorded a V reversal. After returning to the vicinity of 11850 US dollars / ton, the cross plate concussion between the 40-day / 10-day moving average. In the afternoon, although I followed Shanghai Nickel to break through the daily moving average to US $12020 / ton, until I entered the European market, it gradually stabilized and fluctuated around the daily averaging line, but the pressure at the upper Waner pass was heavier. As of 17: 45, Nickel closed at $11960 a tonne, down $200, or 1.64 per cent. Daily turnover decreased by 3627 hands to 3738 hands, while position increased by 2049 hands to 221000 hands. Lunni fell for two consecutive days, temporarily recording a long shadow line in the negative column today, but the center of gravity is still between the 40-day / 60-day moving average. Lunni's own technical side still shows that it will continue to perform in a volatile range and pay attention to the performance of crude oil tonight. whether it will continue to dominate the trend of commodities.

Shanghai nickel 2006 contract opened at 100580 today, a large number of departure above the 100000, nickel prices fell through the 40-day moving average, bottomed 97500 yuan / ton line, although the rapid return to 98500 yuan / ton, but still blocked by the daily average pressure, short selling pressure again, bottomed 96800 yuan / ton after repair to 97500 yuan / ton line, but continue to suffer from the daily average pressure narrow cross plate shock. In the afternoon, more into the air, Shanghai nickel center of gravity gradually broke through the daily average pressure stabilized in 98000 yuan / ton line, the highest up to 98480 yuan / ton. Before the close, the bulls fled the market one after another, with Shanghai nickel closing at 98050 yuan / ton, down 2990 yuan / ton, or 2.96 per cent, from yesterday's settlement price. The trading volume was reduced by 42304 hands to 247000 hands, and the position was reduced by 9964 hands to 89370 hands. Within the day, Shanghai nickel opened high and walked low, mainly because the international crude oil price fell again, panic heated up again, Shanghai nickel plunged back to the previous increase today, but 10 / 40 day moving averages cross to form a strong support. At the same time, at the 100000 level above the 60-day moving average, it turned to upward pressure on nickel prices. At present, this interval multiple moving averages winding, short-term multi-empty two sides will compete in this interval. Pay attention to the direction of crude oil and the dollar in the evening.

Today, SMM1# electrolytic nickel quotation 97200-99300 yuan / ton, due to the re-heating of pessimism, Shanghai nickel led down the basic metal, shortly after the opening of the dive, after the stability of the day, the nickel price is between 97000-98000 yuan / ton. In the spot market, Russian nickel to Shanghai nickel 2006 contract reported 50 yuan / ton to Pingshui, 100 yuan / ton narrower than yesterday's discount range, the lower reaches of the morning market can receive goods, but traders are difficult to make up for the supply of goods at low prices. Jinchuan Nickel Shanghai Nickel 2006 contract rose 1200-1300 yuan / ton, today's market inquiry is active, superimposed today Jinchuan Company Shanghai out of stock, so traders are more willing to rise. And Jinchuan nickel prices fell 100000 again also stimulated the downstream replenishment, the market transaction has also been significantly improved. Afternoon prices stabilized, rising water almost unchanged, there are still spot transactions one after another. Today, nickel beans reported 700 yuan / ton to the Shanghai Nickel 2006 contract, resulting in a slight drop in discount compared with yesterday as a result of poor terminal demand.


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