[2020.4.20 Summary of Xichen Association] long and empty factors coexist with tin price or show high concussion trend

SMM4, 20 March:

Macro: OPEC says demand for the group's crude oil is expected to fall to a 30-year low as a result of the coronavirus outbreak that freezes the global economy. OPEC and its allies have agreed to cut production by 10 per cent next month. But even if the production reduction target is fully met, OPEC production in the second quarter will still exceed market demand. The United States has passed the peak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, and as long as circumstances permit, healthy Americans will return to work, and the states should work together in the phase of economic reopening. Life will eventually return to normal. The goal is to quickly detect and eliminate future outbreaks, and if the epidemic makes a comeback in the autumn, these guidelines will ensure the proper functioning of the United States [Leedo]. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 17th, the gross domestic product (GDP) fell 6.8 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier. In March, the decline of industrial value added and other indicators above scale was significantly narrower than that of the previous two months. Mao Shengyong, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, said: on the whole, in the first quarter, under the impact of the new pneumonia epidemic, China's overall economic and social situation remained stable; at the same time, it should also be noted that the current international epidemic continues to spread, the downside risks of the world economy have intensified, and uncertain factors of instability have increased significantly. Resumption of work and resumption of production and economic and social development are facing new difficulties and challenges [negative]. The 17th meeting of the standing Committee of the 13th National people's Congress of China will be held in Beijing from April 26 to 29.

Supply and demand:

In terms of the outer disk, the Lunxi electronic disk remained high and volatile last week, and the overall state of the macro level has not changed in the near future. The market has weak expectations for crude oil and the data to be released this week, but the United States is about to reopen. The auto industry is also slowly returning to production. And the 17th meeting of the standing Committee of the 13th National people's Congress of China, which is about to be carried out in China, or a certain favorable factor for the domestic Shanghai tin market trend village, thus there is the possibility of driving the trend of Lunxi electronic disk. Therefore, it is expected that the short-term Lunxi electronic disk may continue to be in a high concussion situation, Lunxi below the test integer level of $15000 / tonne support, if the next support is around $14700 / tonne, the upper resistance is near the 60-day moving average of $15700 / tonne.

On the domestic side, last week, the tin market in Shanghai was also in the vicinity of 124500-129000 yuan / ton. After the opening of trading this morning, affected by the announcement of the 17th meeting of the 13th National people's Congress standing Committee and the sharp rise in nickel prices in Shanghai in the morning, the price of tin in Shanghai rose, but the trend of weak supply and demand in the tin market remained unchanged, and the weak demand of downstream enterprises after the rise in tin prices could not be ignored. Overall, it is expected that the short-term Shanghai tin disk may continue to be in a high concussion situation, it is expected that the lower support of Shanghai tin is located near the lower rail of the horizontal plate interval, if it falls below, the next support is near the upper rail of the previous horizontal plate interval of 122000 yuan / ton, and the upper resistance is near the integer barrier of 130000 yuan / ton. In the spot aspect, at present, the spot rising range of some tin ingots in tin market is relatively stable, and it is expected that the short-term Shanghai-tin spot price may continue to maintain a relatively close state of linkage with the Shanghai tin plate, and it is expected that the Shanghai-tin spot price will be mainly fluctuated in the short term.

Price: Monday morning spot market mainstream transaction price 132000-133500 yuan / ton. In terms of discount, the Shanghai tin 2006 contract set Yunxi rising water 5000-5500 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word rising water 4500 yuan / ton, small brand rising water 4000 yuan / ton.

Inventory: LME tin stocks were 6590 tons on Friday, down 655 tons from the same period of the period, and 3828 tons on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on Friday, down 259 tons from the same period of the period.