[20 April SMM lead internal morning meeting record] spot supply shortage social bank has not increased for the time being

Summary of lead morning meeting:

Macro:

It is reported that the governors of the states hardest hit by the epidemic do not agree with the president that they have conducted enough tests to restart their economy as soon as possible; at the same time, more protests against the extension of home orders are brewing; the United States currently has the largest number of confirmed cases of the world's new epidemic, with more than 740000 confirmed cases and more than 40, 000 deaths.

A measure of future economic activity in the US fell a record in March, with (LEI), a leading economic indicator, falling 6.7 per cent last month, the biggest drop in the index's 60-year history, according to the World large Enterprise Research Association. it suggests that the US economy may struggle to emerge from the deep recession triggered by the new crown virus epidemic; The February data were revised downwards, showing the index down 0.2% instead of the 0.1% gain previously reported.

The United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) says a new crown pneumonia pandemic could kill at least 300000 Africans and plunge 29 million people into extreme poverty.

The political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on the 17th to analyze and study the current economic situation and deploy the current economic work. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to hedge the impact of the epidemic with greater macro policies; a proactive fiscal policy should be more active and promising, raise the deficit rate, issue special treasury bonds to combat epidemic diseases, increase special bonds for local governments, improve the efficiency of the use of funds, and really play a key role in stabilizing the economy. A prudent monetary policy should be more flexible and moderate, and use such means as precision reduction, interest rate reduction, and re-lending to maintain a reasonable and abundant liquidity, guide the interest rate in the loan market down, and use funds to support the real economy, especially small and medium-sized enterprises. Adhere to the position of "houses are for living, not for speculation" to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market;

The 17th meeting of the standing Committee of the 13th National people's Congress of China will be held in Beijing from April 26 to 29. It will consider the revised draft of the Law on the Prevention and Control of Environmental pollution by solid waste and the report on the Reform of the Rural Collective property right system.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's GDP fell 6.8% in the first quarter compared with the same period last year. Among them, the information transmission, software and information technology service industry increased by 13.2%, the financial industry increased by 6%, and the accommodation and catering industry decreased by 35.3% compared with the same period last year. The added value of industries above scale decreased by 1.1% in March compared with the same period last year. Retail sales of consumer goods fell 15.8% in March from a year earlier, down 4.7 percentage points from January to February.

China's investment in real estate development fell 7.7% in the first quarter compared with the same period last year, down 8.6 percentage points from January to February, the area of commercial housing sales decreased by 26.3%, commercial housing sales dropped by 24.7%, and the funds of real estate development enterprises dropped by 13.8%. In March, the prosperity index of real estate development was 98.18, an increase of 0.78 points over the previous month.

China's surplus in settlement and sale of foreign exchange reached US $18.6 billion in March, up more than 30 percent from the previous month, and the largest in nearly two years. Safe officials and analysts believe that although the epidemic of Xinguan pneumonia has had a serious impact on the international financial market, the cross-border investment and financing activities and the settlement and sale of foreign exchange by market participants have basically maintained a rational and orderly manner, China's cross-border capital flows are generally stable, and the supply and demand of the foreign exchange market is basically balanced.

The narrow passenger car retail market was 3.01 million in the first quarter of 2020, down 41 per cent from a year earlier, a record low in recent years, and sales are expected to be 1.39 million in April, down about 8 per cent from a year earlier, according to the federation. [bearish]

Fundamentals:

Last week lead price range shock, primary lead refinery inventory is still low, mainly long single trading, individual refineries bulk single quotation to maintain high water quotation, as of Friday bulk single market to SMM1# lead average price rose 50-150 yuan / ton, the trade market, due to the limited supply of goods in circulation, the holder followed the offer of high water, but the tension has been relaxed compared with last week, as of last Friday, reported to the 2005 contract water up 350-450 yuan / ton; Recycled lead in the market circulation has increased this week, the mainstream of SMM1# lead average price discount 100 yuan / ton to flat water quoted factory, consumer end, last week battery enterprises mostly bargain on demand procurement, but the market began to weaken;

In addition, as of last Friday, SMM five lead ingot inventory to 10, 000 tons, compared with the previous changes in the number of units, basically in a flat state.

Lead price:

Lun lead technology on the 20-day moving average is still partially supported, but the overall trend is likely to break the position, short-term vigilance to explore the risk; according to the previous notice, there will be no night trading from February 3;

SMM1# lead prices are expected to fall by 75-125 yuan per tonne today.