[SMM Analysis] Futures soared in spot strong Guangdong Aluminum Base continued to strengthen

Published: Apr 19, 2020 22:33

Save

This week, Shanghai aluminum futures rose more than 500 yuan, the price center of gravity moved up from 11800 yuan / ton to 12400 yuan / ton. Guangdong aluminum ingots spot continued to be strong, trading prices rose from a low of 11800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to a high of 12240 yuan / ton on Friday. The same rise in the current period, Guangdong aluminum base did not fall but rose, from 20 yuan / ton to 60 yuan / ton.

Since the supply and demand side improved in early April, Guangdong spot has been in a state of rising water, futures also hit bottom rebound, this week is now a simultaneous sharp rise. At the futures end, aluminum fluctuated in the first line of 11800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. After delivery of the Shanghai aluminum 2004 contract expired on Wednesday (April 15), aluminum futures began to rise rapidly in the afternoon of the trading day, with a cumulative increase of nearly 600 yuan over the past three days. On Wednesday and Thursday, the position was reduced and the somersault on Friday afternoon surpassed that of the previous two days. On the spot side, Guangdong aluminum ingot inventory fell from a year high of 440000 tons on March 24 to 324000 tons on April 17, with a storage range of more than 26 percent. This week, Guangdong aluminum ingot inventory exceeded 70, 000 tons, an all-time high. At the beginning of the week, the spot of Guangdong aluminum ingots maintained a small rise of 2030 yuan / ton, but as futures continued to rise, bullish sentiment also pushed up the spot, and the spot spread of Guangdong aluminum moved up to 50-60 yuan / ton on Friday.

The current fundamentals have improved: the decline of alumina / cost line down, upstream electrolytic aluminum plant production reduction maintenance scale expanded, aluminum ingots to the warehouse, the market bullish atmosphere gradually thickened, the current rebound of aluminum prices will continue. In addition, in the short term, the spot strength of Guangdong aluminum ingots is difficult to change, and the base still has room to strengthen.

Price forecast

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

2 hours ago

Iranian Drones Strike US Military Targets in Kuwait and UAE, Hitting Aluminum Facilities Linked to F-35 Production

On April 5, the Iranian military issued a statement on April 4, saying that the Iranian military used drones to strike multiple US military targets in Kuwait and other Gulf countries on the same day. The report said that the targets also included aluminum industrial facilities in the United Arab Emirates. The United States and Israel have invested a lot of money in the aluminum industry in the United Arab Emirates, and use it to produce a variety of fighters, including the F-35 stealth fighter, as well as missiles, tanks, and armored vehicles.

2 hours ago

Eurasian Economic Commission Proposes Maintaining Anti-Dumping Duties on Chinese and Azerbaijani Aluminum Tape

On April 3, according to the China Trade Remedies Information Network, on April 2, 2026, the Internal Market Protection Department of the Eurasian Economic Commission issued the final disclosure of the first sunset review of the anti-dumping measures on aluminum tape originating in China and Azerbaijan. If the anti-dumping duties on the products involved in China and Azerbaijan are cancelled, the dumping of the products involved and the substantial damage caused by the dumping to the relevant industries of the Eurasian Economic Union will continue or recur. Therefore, it is recommended to maintain the anti-dumping tax determined in Announcement No. 115 of 2020 unchanged and continue to impose an anti-dumping tax on the products in question for a period of five years, of which the tax rate

2 hours ago

Shaanxi-Henan UHV DC Project, Final in "Three Exchanges Nine Direct," to Be Completed by 2028

On March 31, the National Grid announced that the Shaanxi-Henan ± 800 kV UHV DC project, the final project of the "three exchanges and nine direct" projects in the National "14th Five-Year" plan, with a total investment of 19 billion yuan.It starts in Yulin, Shaanxi, and ends in Kaifeng, Henan, passing through Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Henan provinces. The total length of the line is 728 kilometers, the transmission capacity is 8 million kilowatts, and it is planned to be completed and put into operation in 2028.

2 hours ago