[SMM Analysis] Futures soared in spot strong Guangdong Aluminum Base continued to strengthen

Published: Apr 19, 2020 22:33

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This week, Shanghai aluminum futures rose more than 500 yuan, the price center of gravity moved up from 11800 yuan / ton to 12400 yuan / ton. Guangdong aluminum ingots spot continued to be strong, trading prices rose from a low of 11800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to a high of 12240 yuan / ton on Friday. The same rise in the current period, Guangdong aluminum base did not fall but rose, from 20 yuan / ton to 60 yuan / ton.

Since the supply and demand side improved in early April, Guangdong spot has been in a state of rising water, futures also hit bottom rebound, this week is now a simultaneous sharp rise. At the futures end, aluminum fluctuated in the first line of 11800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. After delivery of the Shanghai aluminum 2004 contract expired on Wednesday (April 15), aluminum futures began to rise rapidly in the afternoon of the trading day, with a cumulative increase of nearly 600 yuan over the past three days. On Wednesday and Thursday, the position was reduced and the somersault on Friday afternoon surpassed that of the previous two days. On the spot side, Guangdong aluminum ingot inventory fell from a year high of 440000 tons on March 24 to 324000 tons on April 17, with a storage range of more than 26 percent. This week, Guangdong aluminum ingot inventory exceeded 70, 000 tons, an all-time high. At the beginning of the week, the spot of Guangdong aluminum ingots maintained a small rise of 2030 yuan / ton, but as futures continued to rise, bullish sentiment also pushed up the spot, and the spot spread of Guangdong aluminum moved up to 50-60 yuan / ton on Friday.

The current fundamentals have improved: the decline of alumina / cost line down, upstream electrolytic aluminum plant production reduction maintenance scale expanded, aluminum ingots to the warehouse, the market bullish atmosphere gradually thickened, the current rebound of aluminum prices will continue. In addition, in the short term, the spot strength of Guangdong aluminum ingots is difficult to change, and the base still has room to strengthen.

Price forecast

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