4. 16 minutes of SMM aluminum internal morning meeting
Trading: yesterday the dollar index closed at 99.573, up 0.698, or 0.71%, Shanghai aluminum main 2006 contract closed at 11950 yuan / ton, up 180 yuan / ton, up 1.53%, Lun aluminum closed at $1512 / ton, down $3 / ton, down 0.2%. Yesterday, Lunan aluminum long reduced more than 10, 000 hands, LME aluminum metal inventory rose 13550 tons to 1.2616 million tons yesterday.
Macro: 1) according to the latest statistics on the new crown epidemic released by Johns Hopkins University on the 15th, as of 10:00 EDT on the 15th (22:00 Beijing time on the 15th), there were 2000984 new crown confirmed cases and 128071 deaths worldwide. The number of confirmed cases in the United States rose to 609696, which is currently the largest number of confirmed cases. 2) the monthly rate of retail sales in the United States in March (%), the previous value:-0.5, expected:-8, announced:-8.7. It was the biggest decline in history since data were recorded in 1992. Monthly rate of industrial output in the United States in March (%), previous value: 0.6, expected:-4, published:-5.4. The biggest drop since 1946. Starting from April 15, 2020, the people's Bank of China has targeted to reduce the deposit reserve ratio by 1 percentage point for rural financial institutions and city commercial banks operating only in provincial administrative areas, with a reduction of 0.5 percentage point each time. About 200 billion yuan of long-term funds were released yesterday to adjust the required reserve ratio for the first time for the implementation of the policy. At the same time, the people's Bank of China carried out medium-term lending to facilitate (MLF) operation 100 billion yuan. (Lido)
Fundamentals: 1) there are signs of recovery in foreign electrolytic aluminum plants. Spain's Alu Iberica Aluminium said on March 20 that it had shut down the La Coru ñ a aluminum plant to prevent the spread of the virus, according to overseas media sources. But the company recently said it planned to restart two aluminium plants, La Coru ñ a and Aviles, on Friday, involving a total capacity of 180000 tons. Although the cost of raw materials such as alumina and prebaked anodes has fallen, and the pace of production reduction in domestic electrolytic aluminum plants has slowed down, the actual production reduction and maintenance in the actual increase plan involves a production capacity of more than 1 million tons, and the aluminum plant is sold at a low price. There is some support for aluminum prices. (lido) 3) as far as the current terminal consumption field is concerned, the performance of the real estate sector is relatively stable, and the closely related construction profiles, curtain wall panels and other products perform well, and the orders of construction profile enterprises are relatively abundant. Guangdong profile enterprises have signs of hoarding in the near future (Lido)
Spot end: yesterday morning, Shanghai Wuxi area holder quoted between 11880-11900 yuan / ton, compared with the previous day price rose 90 yuan / ton near, to the surface of 20 yuan / ton to ping shui, Hangzhou area holder quotation in 11910-11920 yuan / ton. Before noon, the shipper was very active, and the middleman received the goods more actively. A large customer received nearly 10,000 tons of goods yesterday, and the transaction between the buyer and the seller was OK. Downstream yesterday is still on demand to go mainly, receiving goods mediocre. East China closed yesterday as a whole.
Summary: at present, the scope of plant maintenance and production reduction is gradually expanding, consumption can still be maintained in the short term, in the context of the improvement of domestic macro sentiment, aluminum prices have rebounded slightly in the short term. However, in the medium term, given that the global empty haze caused by the epidemic is difficult to dissipate in the short term, it will continue to put pressure on the internal and external aluminum prices, and it is expected that the upward space above will be limited, and the long-term fundamentals will focus on changes in domestic trade and export orders in April / May.
(SMM Xuman 021-51595898)