4.16 Summary of Bronze Morning Association
[4.16 SMM Bronze Morning meeting minutes] Macro side: 1) US retail sales fell a record in March, falling $46.2 billion in March from a month earlier, down 8.7% from the previous month, and US manufacturing output fell 6.3% in March, the biggest drop since February 1946. [bearish] 2) the (IEA) of the International Energy Agency (IEA) publishes its monthly market report, saying global oil demand will plunge 9 per cent this year, the biggest drop on record. Demand is expected to fall by as much as 29 million barrels a day in April to its lowest level since 1995, and May consumption will fall by 26 million barrels a day; there is no viable agreement for production cuts to offset this short-term loss of demand. According to the statement, the ECB supports macro-prudential policy measures taken by the euro zone in response to the epidemic crisis; these measures will release more than 20 billion euros of bank capital to absorb losses and support lending, these complement and strengthen the measures taken by the ECB. [Lido]
Fundamentals: 1) the price difference of scrap copper yesterday was 25 yuan / ton, and the vote point was 6.6%. According to SMM, many traders in Guangdong recently took advantage of the copper price recovery has cleared inventory, inventory is less, in the current copper price stagflation, businesses are worried about the risk of cautious unilateral hoarding, mainly fast-in and fast-out, scrap copper trade active recovery, but overall, the situation of few scrap copper supply has not changed, a year ago the high price of scrap copper inventory has not been profitable, waiting for copper prices to further pick up after the release. [Lido] 2) the overall trading situation of imported copper was deadlocked yesterday. Traders are still high prices, the recent market transactions are mostly concentrated in the end of April and early May to Hong Kong goods, in the face of high quotations, the buyer's psychological expectations still have room to press prices, the enthusiasm for inquiry is slightly weaker. The demand for wet bill of lading and warehouse bill of lading has been strengthened in recent months, mainly because the import price is good and the price of wet bill of lading is low in recent months. Trading is light in recent days, superimposed tax reduction is expected to cool down, some traders are willing to raise prices weakened, but the supply shortage problem still exists, Yangshan copper premium is expected to remain relatively stable in the short term. [Lido] 3) stocks LME copper stocks increased by 1450 tons to 261225 tons on April 15, while copper warehouse receipt stocks in the previous period decreased by 4831 tons to 167010 tons. 4) spot East China: on the spot side, yesterday was the last trading day of the April contract, the spread was still fluctuating more frequently, but the holder's attitude remained unchanged, traders were actively interested in receiving goods, and the market was actively trading at low prices. Short-term spot prices will still maintain a high level of rising water. It is estimated that 80-100 yuan per ton of water will be raised today. South China: yesterday Guangdong electrolytic copper spot on the current month contract rose 110% 120, the average price was the same yesterday. Spot market, delivery day market trading is relatively quiet, whether traders or downstream procurement desire is not high, market transaction prices maintain yesterday's level, some traders quote monthly prices. Overall, stocks in Guangdong have continued to decline recently, the market supply is relatively tight, and it is expected that the rising water will remain at a high level after the month of exchange.
Copper prices and forecasts: last night, Lun copper closed at $5111.5 / ton, down 1.48%, trading volume 11000 hands, short positions reduced 2324 hands to 260000 hands. The fall in copper prices last night was mainly fuelled by gloomy retail data in the US, where risk aversion revived and the dollar index rose more than 1 per cent near the 100 mark. On the other hand, with a record decline in US fuel demand and the biggest weekly increase in crude oil inventories in history, US oil fell to an 18-year low of $19.2 a barrel, also putting pressure on copper prices. It is estimated that today's copper 5080-5130 / ton, Shanghai copper 41200-41600 yuan / ton.