SMM, 15 April:
Lun aluminum opens at $1512 a tonne in the morning. In the Asian session, the plate rose first and then suppressed, with a high of $1529 / ton, and then fell back slightly, but still did not fall below $1500 / tonne. As of 18:20, Lun Aluminium closed at $1512.5 / tonne, up $0.50 / tonne compared with the opening session, and the daily K line temporarily closed at a small cross star. Geneva aluminum led by Shanghai aluminum performance rose slightly, but the fundamentals weak pattern is difficult to change. Tomorrow's range is expected to fluctuate in 14901530 US dollars / ton, the upper 20 moving average resistance is obvious. Continuous attention should be paid to overseas production cuts and the release of macro news.
Shanghai aluminum company 2006 contract opened in the morning at 11830 yuan / ton, after the opening of the long position to help the plate continued to rise, high piercing Wan2 after a small decline, closed at 11950 yuan / ton, for nearly four weeks high. Daily K line closed a small positive line, up 180 yuan / ton from the previous day, up 1.53%, short unilateral positions decreased by 2632 hands to 139000 hands, trading volume increased by 54313 hands to 107000 hands. Today is the last trading day before delivery in the current month, and the intra-day contract has changed to a significant back structure. The Shanghai aluminum 2004 contract closed at 11960 yuan / ton, up 180 yuan / ton, or 1.53%, from yesterday's close. The position was reduced by 5500 hands to 18030 hands. The short position was mainly reduced, the delivery volume was 90150 tons, and the settlement price was 11905 yuan / ton. The current rise in aluminum prices when the macro optimism and domestic fundamentals to repair the dual role. From a macro point of view, liquidity at home and abroad tends to be loose, boosting bulk, Shanghai aluminum has also been boosted. Fundamentals, 1) supply side, as of Wednesday, SMM statistics in 2020 domestic electrolytic aluminum production reduced annual operating capacity of 885000 tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production area has the potential to further expand. 2) on the demand side, since late March, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory began to go to the warehouse, the weekly output of aluminum ingots and bars also increased; the aluminum building materials plate obviously recovered, and the small peak season arrived as scheduled. On the whole, the repair of short-term fundamentals and optimistic macro performance, boost market sentiment, in the medium term still need to pay attention to the impact of supply cuts and the pace of demand changes on the balance. Short-term should not be overly bearish, it is expected to change the month tomorrow after the Shanghai aluminum main concussion run in 11800-12050 yuan / ton.