SMM4, March 15: the recent macro environment has not deteriorated further, is still in the repair phase. But the non-ferrous metals market is not following the upward trend, the market operation logic returns to the fundamentals again. Shanghai zinc fell 0.32%. In April, LME zinc began to exchange positions frequently. Zinc ingot inventory has increased by 26600 tons compared with the end of March, and the inventory is close to 100000. Referring to the post-festival inventory changes on domestic futures exchanges, in the case of an increase in supply and an obvious decline in demand, LME delivery is in line with expectations. "[SMM analysis] the prelude to the continued increase of LME zinc inventory has been on the aluminum side, and the aluminum inventory trend of the two major exchanges has been divided into Shanghai aluminum stocks falling continuously for three weeks. LME data showed that since mid-March, Lun aluminum stocks stopped falling and rebounded, all the way up to 1248000 tons, refreshing a two-month high. Data released last week showed that as of April 10, Shanghai aluminum stocks fell for three weeks to 511252 tons, refreshing a new low for more than a month, forming a strong support for aluminum prices.
The black series continued to rise and fall, with iron ore up 0.25% and thread heat down nearly 0.6%. Thread supply and demand is strong, the demand side exceeds the expected growth. Due to the recent steel mills continue to reduce the purchase price of scrap steel, traders mainly to shipment safe haven operation. With the gradual increase in the starting rate of housing construction projects throughout the country, demand remains to be opened. But the supply of steel mills is also increasing rapidly, restricting the room to rise. With the increase in the volume of iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil, there has also been a marked rebound in domestic arrivals to Hong Kong.
Crude oil fell 3.24% in the previous period. Today's IEA monthly report expects oil demand to fall by 9.3 million barrels a day in 2020 from a year earlier. Oil demand is expected to fall by 29 million barrels a day in April from a year earlier to its level since 1995. Oil production is expected to fall by 12 million barrels a day in May after OPEC + reached an agreement to cut production. Oil production in non-OPEC countries is likely to fall by 5.2 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter and 2.3 million barrels a day for the whole year. Production in other oil-producing countries, mainly the United States and Canada, is likely to fall by 3.5 million barrels a day in the coming months as a result of falling oil prices.
As of today's daytime close:
As of 16:10, the new US dollar denominated small metals contracts on the HKEx are as follows:
Today's capital flow
Some varieties fluctuated sharply, and the capital inflow of commodity index was close to 1 billion. Shanghai crude oil continued to fall, but still favored, with nearly 400 million capital blessings. Grain plate was born to absorb money Shuangjie, corn, soybeans both won nearly 200 million funds, of which corn daily position as high as 66500 hands. Precious metals are no longer popular, and Shanghai Gold has lost more than $200 million. The heat of PP and methanol subsided, methanol reduced its position by 66400 hands a day, and the chemical industry was abandoned by more than 200 million funds.
Brief comment of SMM analyst on April 15
Lead: within the day, the Shanghai lead main force 2006 contract opened at 13765 yuan / ton, low open low walk, the whole day basically around the daily average shock, finally closed at 13630 yuan / ton, down 215 yuan / ton, down 1.55%, position reduced by 1729 hands to 19023 hands. Shanghai lead reporting entity small negative line, continue the concussion market, below 13500 yuan / ton first-line support still exists, pay close attention to the supply of waste battery supply changes.
In addition, the intra-day 2004 contract completed delivery, opened at 14320 yuan / ton, probed down to 14100 yuan / ton, rebounded, and finally closed at 14300 yuan / ton, settlement price 14200 yuan / ton, delivery volume of 1000 tons, trading volume increased by 90 hands to 135 hands, position reduced by 30 hands to 200 hands.
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Registration contact: Lu Qingping, SMM Iron and Steel Division
Tel: 021-51595781 / 187-1777-4590