Macro Roundup (Apr 15)

SHANGHAI, Apr 15 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected in the day ahead.

The US dollar declined on Tuesday as risk appetite returned to the market after the better-than-expected economic data from China dispelled some concerns about the coronavirus impact on the world second-largest economy. 

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies, eased 0.63% and ended at 98.875. 

LME base metals went higher for the most part after trading returned from the Easter Monday holiday. Tin led the increases with a rise of 3.4%. Copper advanced 3.1%, aluminium added 2.1%, nickel climbed 1.8%, zinc gained 1.1%, while lead slipped 1.3%. 

SHFE nonferrous metals also mostly increased on Tuesday as zinc jumped 1.2% on the day to be the biggest gainer. Lead advanced 0.7%, nickel rose 0.3% and copper inched up 0.1%, while aluminium edged down 0.1% and tin fell 0.8%. 

Oil prices dropped sharply on Tuesday, with US prices sliding back toward $20/barrel, as investors bet that the record global output cuts may unlikely to offset the impact of coronavirus crisis on demand. 

While the output cuts agreed to by major producers on Sunday are “substantial, they still fall short of bringing the market to balance over 2Q20,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING, in a note.

On the data front, China’s March exports fell 6.6% from a year earlier, compared with a forecast for a 14% drop, while imports fell by less than 1%, compared with a 9.5% drop predicted by economists.

In March, the foreign trade of goods totalled 2.45 trillion yuan ($348 billion), down 0.8% year on year, compared with a decline of 9.5% during the January-February period, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.

The China-US phase one trade agreement is gradually being implemented, said Li Kuiwen, spokesperson for the GAC. 

US import and export prices both fell in March, the US Department of Labour reported on Tuesday.

The price index for US imports sank 2.3% last month to mark the largest drop since early 2015 — the last time falling oil prices hurt the energy industry. 

Meanwhile, prices for US exports declined 1.6% in March, after falling 1.1% in February and rising 0.6% in January. The March decrease was the largest monthly drop in export prices since the index declined 1.7% in January 2015.

US crude inventories rose 13.1 million barrels in the week to April 10 to 486.9 million barrels, data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed on Tuesday. Analysts had expected a build of 11.7 million barrels, after stocks climbed by a record 15.2 million barrels the previous week.

Key data slated for release today include the US retail sales and industrial output for March, as well as its weekly crude oil change surveyed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).