Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on April 14

SMM4, 14 March:

Copper:

Apron copper opened at $5140 a tonne today. Global copper supply problems continued to ferment during the Easter shutdown, with copper rising sharply in Shanghai, while the Antamina copper mine announced a two-week shutdown this morning, prompting copper to open higher after the market opened today. Opening copper prices continued to rush higher, based on $5150 / ton, blocked $5195 / ton, sub-session, strong narrow volatility above the daily moving average, and in front of the European market, as high as $5200 / ton position. After entering the European session, crude oil fell, the dollar rebounded, and copper prices gave up gains in the Asian session, slightly falling back to the front line of $5150, stabilizing around $5160 / ton, and still maintaining a strong trend. At 17: 00, Lun Copper closed up 2.51% at $5158.5 a tonne, with the dollar index at 99.304 and US crude oil at $21.82 a barrel. Macroeconomic data were light at night. At present, Lun copper receives yang, MACD red column magnifies, the technical surface exists on the impulse energy. Waiting for the guidance of the dollar and crude oil at night, test whether Lun Copper can gain a foothold of $5150 per tonne of energy storage and test the strength of a further $5200 breakthrough.

Today, the main contract of Shanghai Copper opened at 41920 yuan / ton in the morning, which was slightly pushed up by the bulls after the opening of the session. At this time, short positions increased with the long departure to suppress copper prices, all the way down to the day's lowest point of 41570 yuan / ton. Empty more into led to rebound in copper prices, the center of gravity rose to 41800 yuan / ton position, and around its narrow shock, closed at 41800 yuan / ton at noon. In the afternoon, the long position operation pushed up the copper price again, to a daily high of 41970 yuan / ton, but the rising momentum was insufficient. The center of gravity of the copper price fell back to 41830 yuan / ton, and the late long position pulled down the copper price. Finally, it closed at 41750 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton, or 0.10%. The daily position of the main contract of Shanghai Copper increased by 3482 hands to 112000, mainly by short positions, while spot contracts and contracts in recent months reduced their positions by more than 6600 hands, mainly by long positions. Today, the main force of Shanghai copper horizontal plate shock. In the afternoon, Lun Copper took the lead in hitting the US $5200 / ton mark, and the price hit a four-week high, driving the Shanghai copper price up to 42000 yuan / ton mark. Fundamentally, due to the prevention and control of the epidemic caused by the reduction of copper production and even disruption of production news has increased one after another, aggravating the market concern about the supply of copper. It is expected that there is limited room for copper prices to fall in the short term. Within the day Shanghai copper closing Yang, around 41800 yuan / ton shock, two shocks 42000 yuan / ton barrier failed to break through. Bulls are afraid of heights. Next, we need to pay attention to the filling of the gap in the early jump.

Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot contract rose 80 yuan / ton to 100 yuan / ton, Pingshui copper transaction price 41900 yuan / ton ~ 42030 yuan / ton, Shengshui copper transaction price 41910 yuan / ton ~ 42040 yuan / ton. Finishing under the gate of 42000 yuan / ton copper pressure in Shanghai period. The morning trading inquiry is active, the spot market stalemate does not change, the market continues yesterday's quotation, rises the water 80 ~ rises 100 yuan / ton, the flat water copper small quantity may press the price to rise the water 70 yuan / ton, the good copper quotation is as low as the rise water 90 yuan / ton may receive the goods, the transaction atmosphere is slightly better than yesterday. The second section trading stage, low-price flat water copper supply has been difficult to find, flat copper price in the rising water 90 yuan / ton, good copper Wei steady rising water 100 yuan / ton, but the transaction heat is not as good as the morning market, the downstream to maintain a just need, wet copper slightly up to 50 yuan / ton. The price of the holder is also unchanged, some traders have low prices, but the pressure space is limited, most of the transactions are mainly received by traders, holding value holders are blocked under the continuous rebound, and the rising water is forced to maintain a firm attitude. In the afternoon, the market tried to break through 42000 yuan / ton and then fell back to the first line of 41950 yuan / ton, quoted more than 10 yuan / ton in the morning, Pingshui copper quoted 90 yuan / ton, good copper rose 100 yuan / ton, there is almost no price difference between brands, only the quotation, transaction sporadic, most of the market is afraid of high caution, the afternoon transaction price has all stood on 42000 yuan / ton in 4201042050 yuan / ton.

Aluminum:

Aluminum opened slightly higher at $1490.5 a tonne on Tuesday. After the opening of the aluminum shock upward, touch the day's highest level of $1510 / ton after the performance of vomiting, sub-session, two times up the $1510 line, have been suppressed to fall back, the end of the sub-session, fell daily moving average, fell back to the opening price of around $1490. As of 17:42 Beijing time, Lun Aluminium closed at US $1495.5 / ton, while the daily K line temporarily closed at a hammering Xiaoyang line, up US $11.50 / ton, or 0.74%. The trading volume was reduced by 6985 hands to 6548 hands, and the position volume was reduced by 2197 hands to 775000 hands. The decline of crude oil is a drag on the high level of aluminum, and the fact that the fundamentals are weak is an established fact that it is difficult to change. It is expected to run at US $14801500 / ton at night.

On Tuesday, the 2006 contract of the Shanghai Aluminum Company opened at 11760 yuan per ton in the morning. Before noon, the market performance first raised and then suppressed, rushed to 11815 yuan / ton after the long high position reduction, the disk slightly fell back; in the afternoon narrow fluctuations, closed at 11770 yuan / ton, slightly up 15 yuan / ton, up 0.13%. The rise in crude oil continued to boost nonferrous oil during the day, but the rise in Shanghai aluminum must be weak, difficult to break away from the 5 / 10 moving average. Trading volume decreased by 204699 hands to 53035 hands, long unilateral position increased by 308 hands to 142000 hands, mainly long positions. Near delivery, the contract structure hovered in recent months, and the long short show hesitation. We need to keep an eye on the macro news to boost the aluminum disk and the changes in supply and demand of the fundamentals. The operating range of the main aluminum company in Shanghai is expected to be 11600-11800 yuan / ton tomorrow.

The price of aluminum rose and fell back by noon. Before noon, Shanghai Wuxi area holder quotation in 11790-11810 yuan / ton, compared with yesterday's price is basically the same, to the plate surface sticker 10-liter water 10 yuan / ton, Hangzhou area holder quotation in 11820-11840 yuan / ton. Before noon, the shipper is very active, the middleman is slightly less willing to receive the goods, the two sides can trade, but the actual activity is not as good as last week. Downstream today is still on demand to go mainly, there is no obvious indication of stock. The overall transaction in East China was normal today. Aluminum in the afternoon to maintain fluctuations in the range, the holder quoted around 11790 yuan / ton, near the flat water, only a small number of transactions between traders, few downstream.

Lead:

Within the day, Lun lead opened low at 1727 US dollars / ton. In the Asian period, Lun lead briefly fluctuated around the daily moving average, and then, driven by the strength of the inner market, Lun lead once climbed to 1750 US dollars / ton. However, the 40-day moving average was suppressed strongly, and the pressure on Lun lead weakened. Entering the European period, crude oil fell, dragging down the overall weakness of non-ferrous metals. Lun lead fell to 1709.5 US dollars / ton, and as of 17: 54, Lun lead temporarily closed at 1711.5 US dollars / ton. Down $13.5 per tonne, or 0.78 per cent. Lun lead temporarily closed long shadow small negative line, has not yet fallen below the horizontal operating range, if the night crude oil continues to weaken, Lun lead or test below the $1700 / ton integer level.

Within the day, the Shanghai lead main force 2005 contract opened at 13985 yuan / ton, high open high walk, once touched the day high 14235 yuan / ton, and then profit market, Shanghai lead fell below the daily average line, finally closed at 14060 yuan / ton, up 205 yuan / ton, up 1.48%, position reduced 1729 hands to 19023 hands. Another main contract transferred to the 2006 contract, within the day, the Shanghai lead main force 2006 contract short opened in 13770 yuan / ton, long funds to promote the Shanghai lead center of gravity up, after the daily average to support the bottom shock, in the afternoon, the short force increased, Shanghai lead pressure fell back, finally closed at 13765 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton, up 0.73%, the position increased by 1176 hands to 19557 hands. Shanghai lead newspaper long upper shadow small negative line, up weak, but the lower moving average bonding to form a strong support, in the fundamental supply side is not obviously rich, Shanghai lead may continue the concussion market.

Shanghai market Shuikoushan, southern lead 14550-14600 yuan / ton, Shanghai lead 2005 contract up 400-450 yuan / ton, Wuxi market Shuikoushan lead 14550 yuan / ton, Shanghai lead 2005 contract 400 yuan / ton quotation. Lead strong upward, and downstream fear of high careful mining, inquiry enthusiasm declined, the holder quotation has been reduced one after another, but the actual transaction is still very few.

South China lead in Guangdong market is 14280 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead is 80 yuan / ton. Henan Yuguang, Wanyang, Jinli and other smelters mainly produce long orders, and the supply is basically sold in advance this week: Hunan Shuikoushan 14300 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead up 100 yuan / ton (traders), Jiang copper 14300 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM net 100 yuan / ton, Anhui bronze crown 14400 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM net up 200 yuan / ton; Today, the supply of smelters is still relatively small, only some refineries single high water quotation, downstream procurement to recycled lead, the primary market trading is weaker than the previous month.

Zinc:

Geneva Zinc opened at US $1921 / tonne. At the beginning of the day, the market responded to the news that the supply side had been affected by the epidemic. Coupled with the loose flow of funds in the market, Lun Zinc quickly rose to around US $1940 / ton, then fell back after touching US $1955 / ton, and the dollar strengthened crude oil. At the same time, there were concerns about whether LME would continue to trade positions, and Lun Zinc gave up most of its gains downward. Slightly struggling to turn down again after the daily moving average was blocked, lun zinc closed up $1925.5, or $16.50, or 0.86 per cent, at 16: 49. Lun zinc received a long shadow line, the upper 40-day moving average suppression slightly strong, although the supply side news has been boosted, but consumption continues to lie at the bottom of the valley Ling Lun zinc performance is weaker than the domestic, it is expected that Lun zinc short-term difficult to break through the 40-day moving average suppression.

Intraday Shanghai zinc main force 2006 contract opened at 15675 yuan / ton, zinc optimism continued to heat up at the initial stage of the market, the upward position once touched higher 15980 yuan / ton, then part of the capital closed at 15900 yuan / ton, up 165 yuan / ton, up 1.05%, trading volume increased 34206 hands to 106000 hands, position volume increased 5025 hands to 93833 hands. Shanghai zinc upward broke through the 40-day moving average to explore the intensity of suppression at the Wanliu pass, the impact of the epidemic on the supply side stimulated the market from time to time, coupled with the fact that the domestic continuous going to the warehouse did not exceed the expected deterioration of consumption, and the overall performance of fundamentals tended to be more favorable. Short-term zinc may be expected to break through the suppression of the Wanliu pass.

Shanghai Zinc mainstream transaction in 15850-15950 yuan / ton, Shuangyan transaction in 15860-15960 yuan / ton; Shuangyan ordinary price of 90 yuan / ton in May; Shuangyan in May 100 yuan / ton; zinc mainstream transaction in 15780-15880 yuan / ton. Shanghai zinc 2005 contract shock upward, the first trading session in the morning closed at 15810 yuan / ton, the first time in the morning, the trade market to exchange long orders, spot rising water is relatively strong, the market mainstream transactions concentrated in the SMM net average price level, follow-up quotation mainstream to the 2005 contract quoted 90 yuan / ton; Enter the second period, the spot rise is relatively stable, the mainstream of the holder reported to the 2005 contract up to 90 yuan / ton, but the high water transaction is less; zinc price trend to form a unilateral market, the holder high price active shipment, downstream on-demand procurement, the market as a whole trading is still good.

The mainstream transaction in Ningbo was 1588015990 yuan / ton, the ordinary brand rose 120-140 yuan / ton to the 2005 contract, and the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai ordinary brand remained near 30 yuan / ton yesterday. Today, market holders are more active in reporting goods and have a strong willingness to ship goods. In the first period of the morning, the market quotation focused on the ordinary mainstream brands such as Tiefeng and Xikuang, which reported a 120 yuan / ton increase in the May contract, Kirin reported a 130 yuan / ton increase in the May contract, and the Hualian brand raised 130 yuan / ton in the May contract due to less supply. The warehouse raised 130 yuan / ton on the May contract, and the transaction was better. In the vicinity of 140-150 yuan / ton for the May contract, most of the transactions were 140 yuan / ton. Generally speaking, the trading market is better today, some traders have a strong willingness to receive and deliver orders, and the actual willingness to receive goods downstream is lower. On the whole, the transaction situation in the downstream market has taken a turn for the worse.

The mainstream transaction of Guangdong zinc was 15750-15860 yuan / ton, and the quotation focused on the discount of 10-20 yuan / ton to the Shanghai zinc 2005 contract. The discount of 100 yuan / ton in Guangdong stock market was 10 yuan less than that of the previous trading day. The first trading period, the initial holder relatively high price, quotation on the net price rise less, but the price rise, downstream demand is more weak, the late price is loose, but the transaction is still dominated by traders, Kirin, Mengzi, Huize, Tiefeng offer to Shanghai zinc May contract discount 10-20 yuan / ton. In the second trading period, the supply of goods in the market increased, and traders entered the market to find a large source of discount goods, but the willingness of the holder to give up the price was limited, and the overall price did not change much. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize and Tiefeng offer 10-20 yuan per ton for the May contract. Qilin, Mengzi, Huize, Tiefeng mainstream transaction in 15750-15860 yuan / ton.

The mainstream transaction of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 16020-17440 yuan / ton, and that of ordinary brands was 16020-16100 yuan / ton. The contract for 2005 rose by 200 yuan / ton to 260 yuan / ton. Compared with Shanghai stock market, Tianjin market decreased from 190 yuan / ton to 140 yuan / ton. Today, Shanghai zinc shock higher, the spot market slightly lower discount quotation, the quotation is more unified, the ordinary brand red Ye lark and so on in the 05 contract rising water 220-240 yuan / ton, the fourth ring newspaper in the 05 contract rising water 200 yuan / ton, Chihong spot market almost no quotation, the high price brand Zijin to the May contract to rise the water 260 yuan / ton, today has a small amount of Shuangyan newspaper to the 05 contract to rise 220 yuan / ton. Today, due to higher futures prices, traders lower discount quotation, still maintain a high position, the main reason is still smelter shipment is not good, Chihong spot market almost no shipment, and Zijin and lark goods are not much, but today there are a small number of Shuangyan to Tianjin shipment; downstream, due to today's Tianjin market spot price rose to Wanliu above, downstream enterprises are weaker than yesterday. Overall, today's deal is weaker than yesterday's. The transaction of zinc ingot is near 1597016050 yuan / ton.

Tin:

After the opening of the electronic plate of 15145 US dollars / ton today, it quickly rushed up to 15650 US dollars / ton due to the sharp rise in tin in Shanghai at the beginning of the day. Then, under the pressure of crude oil leading the decline in the US dollar after the opening of the European market, Lunxi fell back under pressure. As of 17: 30, the latest price of 15240 US dollars / ton, showing a small positive line, the upper shadow line is long near the 40-day moving average. Resistance above Lunxi is expected to be near the 40-day moving average of $15400 per tonne. In the near future, we can take a look at the monthly rate of US import price index for March (%) released this evening and the change in US API crude oil stocks (10,000 barrels) for the week ended April 10, 2008, which was announced in the early hours of the next morning.

After the Shanghai tin main force 2006 contract opened 128000 yuan / ton early today, it quickly rushed up to a daily high of 128880 yuan / ton at the beginning of the day, and then gradually reduced its position. Shanghai tin bearing pressure fell back, and finally closed at 126370 yuan / ton, down 620 yuan / ton, down 0.49%, trading volume 41967 hands, position volume 35293 hands, an increase of 92 hands. Today, Shanghai tin closed in a negative line, the physical part is located near the 40-day moving average, the support below Shanghai tin is expected to be near the 5-day moving average of 124700 yuan / ton.

In the spot market, the mainstream transaction price today is 131000-132500 yuan / ton. Today, the tin market in Shanghai first rose and then suppressed, and the rise and fall of spot prices followed more obviously. Some traders in Shanghai happen to receive goods when the market is higher, the overall buying of downstream enterprises is generally weak, and the overall transaction atmosphere of Shanghai-tin spot market is general. Shanghai tin 2006 contract set Yunxi rising water 5000-5500 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word rising water 4500 yuan / ton, small brand rising water 4000 yuan / ton.

Nickel:

Lunni resumed the market during the suspension period, driven by the Shanghai nickel rush, and the fundamentals improved, Lunni opened today at 11720 US dollars / ton, the overall day showed a concussive upward trend. At the beginning of the day, Lunni rose to around $11820 / ton and failed to explore the position many times before noon. At noon, Lunni was arranged horizontally at the position of US $11800 / ton. In the afternoon, Lunni broke through the afternoon high, rising $11865 / ton, but the center of gravity quickly moved down to $11820 / ton, and fluctuated narrowly around this position. The position of $11865 / ton above was under strong pressure. As of 17: 45, it was reported at $11850 / ton, up 1.28% from the settlement price of the previous trading day. The trading volume decreased by 2046 hands to 3522 hands, and the position held by 1637 hands to 217060 hands. Lunni temporarily closed in the small balcony today, Lunni closed for five consecutive trading days, the rising trend is strong, the K column as a whole stands above the Boll line track level, the upper $11900 / ton position under pressure, pay attention to whether Lunni can stand at the position of $11800 / ton at night.

Shanghai Nickel 2006 contract opened at 96600 yuan / ton today, the long position at the beginning of the day, Shanghai nickel down 96060 yuan / ton, the 5-day moving average was supported and rebounded, rebounding at 96800 yuan / ton, slightly down 400 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, the bulls increased their positions significantly, Shanghai nickel rose and broke 97000 yuan / ton pressure level to probe 97420 yuan / ton, pressure on this position fell back again, Shanghai nickel rose at the end of the day, and finally closed at 97160 yuan / ton, up 280 yuan / ton from the settlement price of the previous trading day. Up 0.29 per cent, trading volume increased by 43000 hands to 389000 hands, position increased by 3472 hands to 104470 hands. Shanghai nickel closed in the small balcony today, the shadow line down 5-day moving average, the lower boll line rail level is supported, the top is still under pressure 98000 yuan / ton pass, the recent demand for stainless steel warmed up, the price rose, the nickel demand end has improved, nickel price support is stronger than in the previous period. Follow-up pay attention to the support of Shanghai nickel in the middle rail of Boll line and the breakthrough force of 98000 yuan / ton integer pass.

Today, SMM1 Electrolytic Nickel quoted 96250-98150 yuan / ton, the average price is down 550 yuan / ton compared with yesterday. Russia Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 05 contract flat to 50 yuan / ton, Jinchuan Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 2005 contract in the rising water 1400-1500 yuan / ton. Today, Shanghai nickel wide shock adjustment, early market prices lower and near delivery, mainstream traders have few discount quotes for Russian nickel, traders have some circulation between bargains, downstream take a small amount of goods on demand, the market nickel prices fluctuate greatly in the afternoon, the transaction situation of Russian nickel is weaker, the overall transaction situation today is slightly better than yesterday. Jinchuan nickel, early market water 1400 yuan / ton, or water 1500 yuan / ton have a small number of transactions, the degree of demand recovery is limited; Jinchuan company Shanghai continues to have goods for sale, ex-factory price 98000 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, the market nickel price rose back to 97000 yuan / ton, stimulating Jinchuan long Association customers to actively pick up the goods, manufacturers are expected to ship at least 200-300 tons today, it is expected that tomorrow there may be a low price source quotation, Jinchuan rising water is expected to fall back. Nickel beans, the Shanghai Nickel 2005 contract reported 600 yuan / ton, the same as yesterday.

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