4.14 minutes of SMM Aluminium Internal Morning meeting
Session: yesterday the dollar index closed at 99.504, the center of gravity was basically flat from the previous day, up 0.009, up 0.01%. Lun aluminum was closed yesterday for Easter, Shanghai aluminum main force 2006 contract closed yesterday at 11755 yuan / ton, down 90 yuan / ton, down 0.76%, the upper 20 moving average resistance level is strong.
Macroscopically: 1) according to the epidemic statistics of New Crown pneumonia at Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of about 06:30 Beijing time on April 14, there were more than 1.91 million confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in the world, of which 577842 cases were confirmed in the United States and 23219 cases died. Compared with 06:30 the previous day, there were 27826 new confirmed cases and 1225 new deaths in the United States. (OPEC), Russia and other oil-producing countries agreed over the weekend to cut oil production by 9.7 million barrels a day in May and June, or about 10 per cent of global supply. In addition, several other countries will also cut production, with global production expected to be reduced by about 19.5 million barrels per day. Analysts believe that even a cut in production is expected to lead to months or even years of oversupply, which could limit the rise in oil prices. (bearish) 3) focus on the release of the latest World Economic Outlook report and the latest Global Financial Stability report by the IMF today. And China's trade accounts for March. (neutral)
Fundamentals: 1) on April 13, SMM counted the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China (including SHFE warehouse receipts): 171000 tons in Shanghai, 63.9 tons in Wuxi, 366000 tons in the South China Sea, and the total inventory of aluminum ingots in consumer areas totaled 1.548 million tons, down 59000 tons from last Thursday. At present, inventories have fallen by more than 100000 tons in two weeks, but given the high base, the effect on aluminum prices is expected to be limited. It was announced yesterday that the overhaul of the electrolytic cell of an electrolytic aluminum plant in Liaoning is expected to affect the monthly production capacity of 230000 tons / year. Up to now, the cumulative maintenance and reduction output of the domestic electrolytic aluminum plant has been around 885000 tons. For April, the aluminum profile and cable industries are expected to be relatively stable, while the aluminum sheet, strip and foil and recycled aluminum industries are expected to be less than March in April. Among them, export has a great influence. (bearish bauxite) 4) at present, the price of low-grade bauxite in Shanxi and Henan is between 350 and 370 yuan / tonne. Considering the poor demand of alumina plants and the subsequent ore supply or increase, it is estimated that the bauxite price will still have nearly 50 yuan / ton to fall back in the medium term, and feedback to alumina is close to 150 yuan / ton. (bearish)
Spot side: yesterday, Shanghai Wuxi area holders quoted between 1179011810 yuan / ton, 60 yuan / ton higher than Friday's price, 10-liter water 10 yuan / ton, Hangzhou area holder quotation in 11810-11830 yuan / ton. Due to the price rise before noon shippers are active, middlemen are more willing to receive goods, the two sides traded well. Downstream yesterday on-demand goods mainly.
Summary: the macro empty haze is difficult to dissipate in the short term, and will continue to pressure the internal and external aluminum prices, pay attention to the changes in domestic trade and export orders in April / May, and the pace of overhaul and reduction of production in electrolytic aluminum plants. In addition, in view of the possibility of falsification of the relevant news of tax reduction in the market, it is suggested to build a large number of databases with caution.
(SMM Xuman 021-51595898)
