4.14 Summary of Bronze Morning meeting
[4. 14 SMM Bronze Morning Association Summary] Macro aspect: 1) there are more than 2 million new crown infections in the world, doubling since April 3. A small part of the briefing on the new crown pneumonia outbreak held by US President Donald Trump at the White House said that the White House will announce tomorrow the establishment of an economic working group, including a committee or committees. Focus on guiding how to reopen the United States in the coming weeks. [Lido] 3) the outbreak has led to a sharp decline in the US economy and massive government bailout spending, which will nearly quadruple the US deficit in fiscal 2020 and hit a record high of $3.8 trillion, equivalent to 18.7 per cent of US gross domestic product (GDP), according to the US conscientious Federal Budget Committee (CRFB). Fundamentals: 1) Copper concentrate from Antamina Copper Mine, Peru's largest copper mine operated by BHP Billiton and Glencore, has announced a "strategic shutdown" of production for at least two weeks to mitigate the impact of the new crown pneumonia. [Lido] 2) the price difference between scrap copper and scrap copper yesterday was 111 yuan / ton, with a vote point of 6.6%. Malaysia, one of China's main sources of copper imports, has renewed its control order until April 28, with factory construction still restricted and the resumption of scrap exports expected to be delayed. With the recent strong rise in copper prices, traders should make a profit on shipments, and some of the supplies will flow to the market, but will not have much impact on the situation that the market is in short supply. [Lido] 3) the market for imported copper was still deserted yesterday, mainly due to the closure of LME on Monday, the lack of price guidance in the market, and strong wait-and-see sentiment, and traders mostly maintained their quotations on Friday. The continuous disturbance of the overseas supply side of copper leads to the uncertainty of the arrival of the goods, superimposed tax reform expectations, the buyer is still optimistic about the spot price in the short term, and the willingness to bid is not reduced. Last week, the sharp decline in spot sales in the domestic trade market had no significant impact on foreign trade. On the other hand, the buyer's demand is limited, dominated by bills of lading at the end of April and early May. Both supply and demand are weak, and the market is in a stalemate as a whole. [Lido] 4) inventories were closed at LME yesterday; copper warehouse receipt inventories fell 4065 tonnes to 173357 tonnes. [neutral] 5) spot East China: in the spot aspect, the current strong characteristics are obvious, the holder's heart of offering prices has been incessant, the downstream continues to maintain a strong need, traders lead the market to close transactions, and the source of low-cost goods is favored by speculators. Spot water is expected to rise by 60-90 yuan / ton today. South China: Guangdong electrolytic copper spot contract rose by 100% to 120% yesterday. In the spot market, despite yesterday's high copper prices, holders, affected by the continued sharp decline in inventories, insisted on high water shipments yesterday, with limited shippers, slightly higher than on Friday, and downstream demand can still be procured in moderation. Overall, yesterday's supply was less than demand, rising water rose slightly. Copper price and forecast: the price of copper in and out of the market was suspended last night. Recent copper prices continue to be supported by the supply side, this morning news from the Peruvian Antamina copper mine stopped operation for more than 2 weeks, copper prices are expected to remain volatile on the strong side. Today's copper is expected to be 5150-5200 US dollars / ton, Shanghai copper 41500-42000 yuan / ton.