[April 14 SMM lead Internal Morning meeting record] Primary lead supply shortage waste limits on recycled lead production

Summary of lead morning meeting:

Macro:

It is reported that the latest data show that the total number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in the world has reached 1.9 million.

The Saudi energy minister said the OPEC+ retained all options at the June meeting and was willing to cut oil production further if necessary. Saudi Aramco cut the price of crude oil in Asia to increase the price of crude oil exports to the United States. Russia's energy minister said Russian oil executives agreed to take radical measures to balance the market, with global production cuts likely to reach 15 million-20 million barrels a day in May and June. [Lido]

As the market has stabilized, the Federal Reserve has reduced the frequency of repo operations. Starting from May 4, the Fed will resume an overnight repurchase operation every morning and cancel the overnight repurchase operation in the afternoon. The frequency of three-month repurchase operations will be reduced from once a week to once every two weeks. [Lido]

(CRFB), the responsible federal budget committee, said the outbreak had led to a sharp decline in the US economy and massive government bailout spending, which would nearly quadruple the US deficit in fiscal 2020, hitting a record high of $3.8 trillion, equivalent to 18.7 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP). CRFB also forecasts a deficit of $2.1 trillion in fiscal 2021, followed by an average deficit of $1.3 trillion per fiscal year, up to fiscal 2025, as the economy recovers from the damage caused by the shutdown.

China's March trade data will be released today, which is likely to show that after the first round of the domestic epidemic, the foreign trade industry has not yet stood firm and has encountered setbacks. [bearish]

Fundamentals:

Shanghai lead maintained a consolidation situation, while the source of goods in circulation in the market was still relatively limited. The holders generally offered goods at a high price, and the quotation continued to rise. Among them, the Shanghai market Shuikoushan and southern lead to Shanghai lead 2005 contract rose 500-550 yuan / ton quotation, silver to SMM1# electrolytic lead rose 250 yuan / ton quotation, Wuxi market south, Shuikoushan lead to Shanghai lead 2005 contract rose 420-450 yuan / ton quotation. The primary lead smelter is dominated by long single, and the supply of bulk single in the market is less. In the aspect of recycled lead, with the increase of the demand of recycled lead enterprises, the price of waste battery is easy to rise but not fall, the deflation of electrolytic lead is tight, the market of recycled lead is traded well, and the discount quotation of recycled lead with tax is increased. At the same time, the main force of receiving goods is still traders in the middle and large downstream, mainly by long single purchase, or turning to recycled lead plate.

Lead price:

Overseas Easter holidays, the London Stock Exchange closed today, resumed today, according to the last notice, there will be no night trading from February 3;

SMM1# lead prices are expected to rise 150-200 yuan / ton today.