SMM4 March 13 Zinc Morning meeting: OPEC+ reached an agreement to reduce the price of zinc down the lower reaches of the deal
Zinc Morning: macro: OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to cut production on a record scale to support oil prices, saying it had reached an unprecedented agreement with other oil producers, including the United States, to reduce global oil supply by 20 percent. According to the draft statement, OPEC+ expects global production cuts to exceed 20 million barrels a day, equivalent to 20 percent of global supply, effective May 1; British Prime Minister Johnson was released from hospital on Sunday and thanked health workers for saving his life. More than 10,000 deaths have been reported from new crown virus infections in the UK. [Lido] the US consumer price index (CPI) fell by the biggest monthly rate in more than five years in March, and CPI is likely to fall further in the future as the epidemic suppresses demand for some goods and services and offsets price increases caused by supply chain disruptions. The people's Bank of China released financial data for the first quarter. At the end of March, the M2 balance of broad money increased by 10.1% compared with the same period last year. In March, RMB loans increased by 2.85 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.16 trillion yuan over the same period last year. The scale of social financing increased by 11.08 trillion yuan in the first quarter, of which RMB loans to the real economy increased by 7.25 trillion yuan. In March, new credit and social finance hit new and historical highs respectively, speeding to hedge the negative impact of the epidemic. However, from the point of view of the data structure, the financing demand of the real economy has not really recovered. Central bank officials also said that the macro leverage ratio can be allowed to rise in a certain period, and the subsequent central bank is still expected to introduce further cuts in precision and policy interest rates to help the economy. The central bank's open market this week had a maturity of 200 billion yuan in MLF, with no positive repurchase, reverse repurchase and central bank ticket maturity. The central bank cut the target rate of small and medium-sized banks by 1 percentage point in April and twice on April 15 and May 15, with each reduction of 0.5 percentage point, releasing a total of about 400 billion yuan in long-term funds. [Lido]
Fundamentals: spot Review last Friday: traders actively shipping downstream transactions to improve
Shanghai: in the first period of the morning, the market is dominated by long single trading, and the mainstream transaction in the market is concentrated in the average price of SMM net or discount of 5 yuan / ton. Some of the holders reported a rise of 80 yuan / ton to the 2005 contract. In the second period, the spot rising water was relatively stable, and the mainstream of the holder reported 80 yuan / ton to the 2005 contract. Zinc prices rebounded, the market trading is active, downstream active inquiry, buy more, downstream in the low price purchase intention is strong.
Ningbo: today's market reported fewer goods as a whole, in the first period of the morning, some holders continued yesterday's quotation, Tiefeng, Xikuang and other brands quoted around 120 yuan / ton in May, while other brands such as Hualian quoted lower prices. The basic quotation is around 100-110 yuan / ton for the May contract, and Kirin quotes about 130-140 yuan / ton for the May contract. Overall, zinc prices fell slightly today, superimposed rising water slightly lower, today's market inquiry atmosphere is better, the overall transaction situation is basically flat compared with yesterday.
Guangdong: in the first trading period, the center of gravity of futures prices was lower than yesterday, and the sentiment of holders was relatively strong. Some traders pressed prices to receive goods, and the market as a whole was still dominated by discount transactions. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize and Tiefeng quoted 10-20 yuan / ton on the Shanghai zinc May contract. The second trading period, futures month spread of 30 yuan, the holder of the next month contract quotation is relatively strong, the willingness to let the price is not enough, the downstream bargain slightly procurement, the market trading is still general. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize and Tiefeng offer 10-20 yuan per ton for the May contract.
Tianjin: today, the Shanghai zinc low shock, the spot market sharply raised the discount quotation, the quotation is more unified, the ordinary brand red Ye lark reported in the 05 contract to rise the water 210 yuan / ton near, Chihong spot market almost no quotation, the high price brand Zijin to the April contract bid 240 yuan / ton near. Today, traders significantly raised the discount quotation, due to Chihong pre-maintenance led to the current spot file, superimposed purple gold to a longer single, while the rest of the smelter exists to cherish the sale phenomenon, resulting in the spot market circulation of goods significantly reduced than the previous period, traders have a strong willingness to raise prices, today's Tianjin spot price upward, did not see the weakening of transactions, downstream still maintain the need for procurement. On the whole, the transaction today is flat compared with yesterday.
Inventory: as of April 10, the total inventory of zinc ingots in SMM Seven places was 285800 tons, down 6800 tons from April 3. The arrival situation in Shanghai area is basically normal this week. The order situation of large galvanized pipe factories and some galvanized iron towers and rail enterprises is better, which obviously leads to the decline of inventory. The decline in inventory in Tianjin is mainly due to more orders from large galvanized enterprises and maintain a higher operating rate as a whole. in addition, superimposed some brands supply only downstream proportion to increase, as well as slightly cherish the sale of the situation, the overall volume of goods also decreased; From the point of view of Guangdong, due to the obvious decline in orders of downstream die-casting zinc alloy enterprises, external demand has been seriously frustrated, and the overall willingness to buy is relatively weak.
Bonded area inventory: as of April 10, Shanghai bonded area zinc ingot inventory 74600 tons, down 800 tons from April 3. It is understood that with the gradual narrowing of import losses this week, some imported zinc ingots flowed into the domestic market, and the inventory of imported zinc ingots in the bonded area as a whole fell slightly. With the operation of ports affected by the epidemic in other countries, follow-up attention is paid to the shipping risk of imported zinc ingots.
Zinc price: last Friday, lme was closed at Easter in the UK. On the supply side, in the early stage, due to the problem of low zinc prices and superimposed processing fees, some small mines reduced and stopped production, and some medium-sized mines only produced and did not sell. However, in April, the processing fee was reduced to an average price of 5600 yuan / ton, and the low price was 5300 yuan / ton. It is also expected that the willingness to ship the mine will be strengthened. in addition, the inventory of Lianyungang zinc concentrate rose to a high level of 200000 tons on Friday, and the shortage of raw materials in the smelter is expected to be alleviated. Refined zinc production will remain high and short-term zinc prices will be weak.
Today is expected: Shanghai zinc main force 2006 contract or run in 15200-15700 yuan / ton. Domestic zinc rose 80 yuan per ton.