Summary of lead morning meeting:
Macro:
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC) and allies such as Russia (OPEC+) on Sunday agreed to record production cuts to support oil prices, saying they had reached an unprecedented agreement with other oil producers, including the United States, to reduce global oil supply by 20 percent. According to the draft statement, OPEC+ expects global production cuts to exceed 20 million barrels per day, equivalent to 20 per cent of global supply, effective May 1; [Lido]
British Prime Minister Johnson was discharged from hospital on Sunday and thanked medical workers for saving his life. There have been more than 10,000 deaths from new crown virus infections in the UK.
The US consumer price index (CPI) fell by the biggest monthly rate in more than five years in March, and CPI is likely to fall further in the future as the new crown epidemic suppresses demand for some goods and services and offsets price increases caused by supply chain disruptions.
The people's Bank of China released financial data for the first quarter. At the end of March, the M2 balance of broad money increased by 10.1% compared with the same period last year. In March, RMB loans increased by 2.85 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.16 trillion yuan over the same period last year. The scale of social financing increased by 11.08 trillion yuan in the first quarter, of which RMB loans to the real economy increased by 7.25 trillion yuan. In March, new credit and social finance hit new highs in the same period and record highs respectively, speeding to hedge the negative impact of the epidemic; however, from the point of view of the data structure, the financing demand of the real economy has not really recovered, and central bank officials also said that macro leverage can be allowed to rise in a certain period, and the subsequent central bank is still expected to introduce further cuts in precision and policy interest rates to help the economy.
This week, the central bank has 200 billion yuan of MLF maturing on the open market, with no positive repurchase, reverse repurchase and central bank ticket maturity. The central bank cut the target rate of small and medium-sized banks by 1 percentage point in April and implemented twice on April 15 and May 15, each time by 0.5 percentage point. A total of about 400 billion yuan of long-term funds have been released. [Lido]
Fundamentals:
Last week lead price narrow range shock, the primary lead refinery inventory is low, the bulk quotation maintains the high water quotation, as of last Friday the bulk single mainstream market reports to the SMM1# lead average price rises 50-100 yuan / ton, the trade market, because the inventory is low, the trader hand supply is not many, as of last Friday, quoted to the 2005 contract rises 400-450 yuan / ton; Recycled lead has been increasing in the market this week, the mainstream of SMM1# lead average price discount 100 yuan / ton to 50 yuan / ton quoted factory, consumer end, this week battery enterprises mostly bargain on demand procurement, but the market began to have signs of weakening;
In addition, as of Friday (April 10), the total inventory of lead ingots in the five places of SMM reached 10, 000 tons, down more than 1300 tons from the previous period, and showed a downward trend for seven consecutive weeks since the end of February.
Lead price:
Overseas Easter holidays, the London Stock Exchange continued to close, according to the last notice, there will be no night trading from February 3;
SMM1# lead prices are expected to be flat today.
