A production reduction agreement has been reached! But the market is pessimistic. Oil prices rise first and then fall.

SMM4, March 13: the crude oil production reduction meeting, which lasted for several days, was finally finalized. Although production cuts were cut again during the standoff in Mexico, the first round cut crude oil production by 9.7 million barrels a day in May and June, the biggest cut since OPEC+ was founded. But once again, crude oil production fell short of market expectations, and oil prices fell after a brief rally.

The specific implementation of the production reduction agreement is the first round of production reduction for a period of two months from May 1, 2020, with a production reduction quota of 9.7 million barrels per day.

Production will be reduced by 8 million barrels per day from July to December 2020.

Production was reduced by 6 million barrels per day from January 2021 to April 2022.

However, it is widely believed that the cut in production will not do a good job of boosting oil prices. Goldman Sachs is pessimistic about the outlook for production cuts. The OPEC + production cut agreement is historic, but the scale of the cut is insufficient. OPEC + crude oil supply is expected to be 4.3 million barrels per day lower than production in the first quarter. Oil prices will fall further in the coming weeks; Morgan Stanley on Sunday raised its second-quarter forecast for Brent crude to $25 a barrel, while US crude oil was $22.50 a barrel, but the bank said a cut of 9.7 million barrels a day would not stop a sharp increase in oil inventories in the coming months, putting pressure on oil prices.

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