[SMM Analysis] delivery near Guangdong Aluminum Market forward Price regression

This week, the mainstream spot transaction price of Guangdong aluminum ingots is between 11580-11770 yuan / ton, the average month-on-month rise of about 150 yuan / ton, the upward momentum continues and the increase slightly expanded; aluminum ingot base difference maintained in the range of 10-20 yuan / ton, a small amount in 30 yuan / ton. There was no trading during the Qingming Festival holiday on Monday, and Shanghai aluminum fluctuated between 11500 yuan and 11700 yuan / ton from Tuesday to Thursday. On Friday, aluminum rose sharply from the outside plate, hitting a recent high, and the center of gravity of spot prices also moved up.

Since Shanghai Aluminum 2004 became a spot monthly contract on March 17, the base spread of Guangdong aluminum ingots has gradually strengthened from-100 yuan / ton to 20 yuan / ton, up 120 yuan / ton. Among them, the base increase of the third week (3.30-4.3) reached nearly 100 yuan / ton, mainly due to the strong demand downstream. Guangdong aluminum ingot reached a new high this week, the spot performance was strong, the futures was relatively weak, and the rapid strength of the base was also expected under the background of clear strength. It is worth noting that Guangdong aluminum warehouse receipts increased from 5000 tons on March 17 to 13000 tons on April 1, and more than 3, 000 tons of warehouse receipts entered the spot market on April 3 after the Guangdong aluminum ingot base difference became normal. But as of April 10, Guangdong still had more than 10, 000 tons of aluminum warehouse receipts.

Given that the Shanghai aluminum 2004 contract is due for delivery next Wednesday, there is little chance that the base spread of Guangdong aluminum ingots will continue to strengthen, and strong demand will support the base difference. In the current situation of relatively limited room for ups and downs, Guangdong aluminum ingots may maintain the state of small water delivery.