4.10 minutes of SMM Aluminium Internal Morning meeting
Trading: yesterday's dollar index fell below 100. it closed at 99.543, down 0.597, or 0.6%. Lun Aluminium closed at $1484, up $15, or 1.02%. Yesterday, LME aluminum stocks rose 12250 tons to 1.2397 million tons, and Shanghai Aluminum closed at 11655 yuan / ton, up 35 yuan, or 0.3%.
Macro: 1) OPEC + was originally prepared to reach an agreement to cut production by 20 million barrels per day, crude oil rose 10 per cent at one point, but the final production reduction was 10 million barrels per day, below market expectations, oil prices fell back to high levels, down more than 10 per cent. (bearish loans) 2) the Federal Reserve announced new measures to provide up to $2.3 trillion in loans, including mass corporate loans and municipal liquidity facilities. (lido) 3) Euro zone finance ministers have agreed on a 540 billion euro epidemic relief package, which includes 200 billion euros of liquid funds for European small and medium-sized enterprises and the use of the European Stability Mechanism to provide a credit line equivalent to 2 per cent of the economic output of member States, worth 240 billion euros. According to Johns Hopkins University statistics, as of 3: 00 Beijing time on the 10th, the United States had a cumulative total of more than 450000 confirmed cases, the largest cumulative number of confirmed cases in the world, and the second largest number of deaths, second only to Italy. (bearish)
Fundamentals: 1) on April 9, SMM counted the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China (including SHFE warehouse receipts): 172000 tons in Shanghai, 65.7 tons in Wuxi and 389000 tons in the South China Sea, down 69000 tons from last Thursday. The South China Sea and Gongyi area decreased greatly. However, taking into account the existence of aluminum factory shipments and downstream hoarding pre-factors, it is expected that it is difficult to continue to reduce the stock. (lido) 2) the recent rise in processing fees for aluminum bars in various places is due to a certain selling sentiment among upstream producers, while the downstream profile factory orders are relatively abundant and the expected subsequent rise in aluminum prices leads to a relatively high enthusiasm for stock preparation, and the supply and demand side is tight in the short term. In view of the doubts in the peak season in the field of terminal consumption, it is expected that there is limited room for a sustained rise in aluminum bar processing fees. (bearish) 3) the operating rate of the leading plate and strip factory in Shandong and Henan in April is higher than that in March or flat, and it is expected that it will be difficult to improve from May to June, and the main influencing factors are the hindrance of export orders. Orders for aluminum cable enterprises in the second quarter are flat, and the consumption increment brought about by UHV is expected to be reflected in the second half of the year. (bearish)
Spot side: yesterday morning, Shanghai Wuxi area holder quotation was between 11600-11620 yuan / ton, 60 yuan / ton higher than the previous day's price. Although the early shipper was active in shipping but relatively high in price, the middleman made an active inquiry but did not actually receive the goods. The transactions between the two sides showed a slight stalemate, the aluminum went up at the end of 11:30, and the holder's quotation was also raised, but at this time the trading heat fell back to the market and there were few transactions. The spot price in Hangzhou is concentrated in the range of 11610-11630 yuan / ton. Downstream on-demand procurement yesterday, there was no bright spot. The overall transaction in East China was flat yesterday.
Summary: at present, the epidemic situation in foreign countries has not yet appeared a significant inflection point, and aluminum prices are operating under pressure under the global macro-air background. From a fundamental point of view, inventories are still relatively high, and the superposition market has doubts about the trend of long-term consumption. It is expected that the upward space of aluminum prices will be limited in the short term, mainly due to weak shocks. Pay attention to the impact of recently announced fiscal and monetary stimulus measures on market sentiment at home and abroad.
(SMM Xuman 021-51595898)