COVID-19 global disruption: Production update on overseas mining companies

SHFE nickel performed well last week.

According to a report from the Financial Times, a senior government official in Indonesia stated that the country will continue to push forward with its plan to expand nickel production, despite oversupply forcing competitors to close nickel mines. The country's goal is to keep nickel prices low and safeguard the long-term demand for this crucial metal in electric vehicle batteries.

SMM March 18th: On March 18th, the opening price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 142,030 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 139,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,920 yuan/ton from the closing price of the previous trading day. Intraday trading strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with an increase of 50,346 lots in volume and an increase in open interest of 2,737 lots...

It is estimated that China’s NPI output in March 2024 will be 25,900 in nickel content, down 0.92% MoM. According to SMM research, most domestic producers suffered losses, and some cut productions in February, and may suspend production in March.

Nickel prices continued to rise last week because the approval of nickel ore mining quotas in Indonesia under RKAB was slower than anticipated.

SMM News on March 4th: During the trading session on March 4th, the opening price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 135,500 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 136,620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price. Trading during the session was stronger compared to the previous trading day, with an increase in trading volume of 54,103 lots and a decrease in open interest of 1,575 lots.

Metals market: As of midday close, base metals in the domestic market rose almost across the board. Shanghai nickel rose 4.1%, and Shanghai aluminum rose slightly. Shanghai tin fell 1.17%. Shanghai copper, Shanghai zinc and Shanghai lead all rose within 0.3%. The main alumina futures rose 2.08%. The main industrial silicon contract rose 0.6%. The main lithium carbonate futures contract rose 2.72%. The black series is mostly red, and the iron ore rose 0.89%. Thread and hot coil rose slightly, and stainless steel rose 1.34%. In terms of double coke, coking coal fell 0.31% and coke fell 0.21%. In terms of external metals, as of 11:42, LME metals were mixed. London zinc and London nickel rose slightly, London aluminum rose 0.45%, London lead, London tin, and London copper all fell slightly, and the decline was within 0.3%. In terms of precious metals, as of 11:42, COMEX gold rose 0.19%, and COMEX silver fell 0.04%. In terms of domestic precious metals, as of noon close, Shanghai gold fell 0.02%, and Shanghai silver fell 0.42%. Gold prices are set to post weekly gains, supported by a weaker dollar and safe-haven buying this week. Conflict in the Middle East has also boosted gold's safe-haven appeal. In addition, as of noon closing, the main futures of European line container shipping were reported at 2048 points, up 0.5%

[SMM analysis: The high abroad and low domestic aluminium prices drove the export volume of domestic unwrought aluminium and aluminium semis increasing significantly YoY in March] Since August 2021, China's unwrought aluminium and aluminium semis exports have increased significantly YoY, and reached a record high in the first quarter of this year. According to the short-term forecast, aluminium prices at home and abroad will fell in April, but the pattern of high abroad aluminium prices and low domestic aluminium prices will remain, and the domestic aluminium exports will remain high. However, since March, the domestic pandemic interfered with the operation and transportation of domestic aluminium processing enterprises, and ports in Shanghai and other regions were severely blocked.

Prices of cobalt metal and cobalt salt started to move downwards this week.

Global economy is recovering, and the US liquidity contraction is expected to strengthen. When the US dollar, measured by the constant value, appreciates, the absolute price of copper fell (relative concept); the depreciation of the non-US currency suppressed purchase demand and also suppressed demand. The appreciation of the US dollar improves the production enthusiasm of non-US copper-producing regions. As copper is priced in US dollar, the appreciation of the US dollar will lower the production costs. Most of the copper-producing areas are in South America and Southeast Asia.