[SMM Analysis] looking at the rise and fall of Copper Price in April from the Perspective of Historical probability

SMM4, March 8: affected by the spread of the epidemic in the world, copper prices fell sharply in March, and at one point approached a new low in January of 16 years. Whether copper prices can rebound sharply in April will be analyzed from the historical probability.

From historical data, the probability of Shanghai copper rising in April is 50%; the probability of Lun copper rising in April is slightly lower at 47%. Well, in 20 years, the probability of rising in April is higher or the probability of falling is higher. We think that the probability of rising is higher. There are the following reasons:

Overall, supply fell in April from the previous month, demand rose slightly from the previous month, and the supply and demand side improved from March, but far less than in the same period last year. However, the current global epidemic growth has loomed an inflection point, if it can be fully controlled at the end of April, then copper prices are expected to rebound to a certain extent, the height of the rebound depends on the recovery of consumption.