Spot price of nickel oxide on April 8, 2020

[7.8 Morning Meeting Minutes] US President Trump stated on the Ukraine issue that he was in consultations with Russian President Putin to see if the Russia-Ukraine conflict could be ended. Trump said they had a "very good call." The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) edged higher early before pulling back to close the morning session at 126,290 yuan/mt, down 0.03%. July is within the submission window for Indonesia's nickel ore RKAB, and the final approval outcome will determine the supply-demand pattern for H2, making it the most critical uncertain variable at present. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to remain in the doldrums within the 125,000-135,000 yuan/mt range.

The start-up of Indonesia's Excelsior Nickel Cobalt (ENC) HPAL project, which is expected to produce its first MHP in July and refined nickel in August, marks another major expansion of the country's downstream nickel industry. While the project strengthens Indonesia's position as the world's leading battery materials hub and attracts further foreign investment, the additional 72,000 tpa of Class-1 nickel capacity is likely to increase demand for domestic limonite ore in the long term while simultaneously adding to the global surplus of battery-grade nickel. In the near term, the new supply could exert further pressure on MHP and nickel prices, potentially reducing margins across the Indonesian nickel value chain and reinforcing market concerns over oversupply amid ongoing discussions on additional RKAB quotas.

[SMM Analysis] Indonesia's May Sulphur and Sulphuric Acid Import and Export Data