4.8 Summary of Bronze Morning meeting
[4.7 minutes of SMM Bronze Morning meeting] Macro aspect: 1) Russia confirmed its participation in the OPEC+ meeting on 9 April. However, Russia and Saudi Arabia have not yet reached a consensus on production cuts, and everything will be decided at the OPEC+ meeting on April 9, and the scale of production cuts will depend on proposals from the United States, Canada, Brazil and other countries. The United States has rejected OPEC+ 's request to participate in massive oil production cuts, saying U. S. production is already falling. The Trump administration has asked Congress for an additional $250 billion in emergency economic aid to help small American businesses hit by the new epidemic. [Lido]
Fundamentals: 1) the first Quantum Copper concentrate has received an order from the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Panama to suspend the operation of its Panamanian subsidiary, Cobre Panama Copper Mine, as a health control measure for the New Crown epidemic until it is convinced that quarantine conditions have been met. The Cobre Panama copper mine is expected to produce between 285000 and 310000 tons of copper in 2020. Cobre Panama is evaluating ways to reduce all operating costs at the site during epidemic prevention, including emergency labour regulatory concessions for termination of contracts. [Lido] 2) the price difference of scrap copper yesterday was 135 yuan / ton, and the voting point was 6.5%. Yesterday, copper prices soared market confidence rebounded, well-funded traders want to receive goods, but the supply of purple copper few circulation, and Ching Ming Festival holiday part of the recycling bin, the holder has not yet started, the overall demand is exuberant, but businesses have bullish psychology to continue to cherish the sale, trading activity is therefore limited. [Lido] 3) imported copper suffered an import loss of around 50 yuan / ton yesterday. Copper imports in the morning are now a small profit, superimposed pre-tax reduction expectations and the scarcity of goods in the market, today's foreign trade market prices ushered in the biggest increase after the Spring Festival. At present, there are few incoming bills of lading in April, and the source of warehouse receipts has also been centrally acquired by large customers in the past two weeks. The overall supply of goods in the market is tight. Under the market background of a better market, there is a concentrated mood of raising prices and even cherishing the sale of goods in the market. Because there are still good expectations for the short-term market, the market high price is still more active, and the market transaction price is also rising rapidly. [Lido] 4) stocks LME copper stocks fell by 975 tons to 216500 tons on April 7, while copper warehouse receipt stocks in the previous period decreased by 6186 tons to 197220 tons. [neutral] 5) spot East China: on the spot side, due to the continued rise of copper in Shanghai, the strong willingness to accept goods at lower prices downstream, and the firm quotation of holders, it is still difficult to maintain the situation of low prices, so spot quotations maintain a high level of water. It is estimated that today's copper 4970-5030 U. S. dollars / ton, Shanghai Copper 40200-40700 yuan / ton. Today, spot water rose 130-160 yuan / ton. South China: Guangdong electrolytic copper spot contract rose 90% to 110% yesterday. Spot market, back to Guangdong inventory continued to decline after the festival, holders ignore the sharp rise in futures prices, adhere to high water shipment, but the market acceptance is low, delayed transaction; coupled with a large number of warehouse receipts into the market, so that the spot market presents a situation of oversupply, holders have to lower the price of downstream procurement still do not actively close the general. Overall, futures prices rose sharply today, the market afraid of high trading atmosphere is quiet.
Copper prices and forecasts: copper prices rose and fell last night, fuelled by supply-side gains such as the shutdown of the Panamanian copper mine and increased global stimulus policies. Copper prices first continued their rally last night, rising to $5114 a tonne, but copper prices subsequently fell due to concerns about copper demand. Us stocks also opened high and walked low last night, indicating that the market is still in a risk aversion and there are certain fluctuations in risk assets; on the crude oil side, oil prices closed down nearly 7 per cent yesterday as a result of market doubts about the unanimous reduction in production by the world's major oil-producing countries and the announcement of a sharp increase of 11.9 million barrels in API crude oil inventories, dragging down copper prices in late trading. London Copper is expected to compete around the $5000 pass today.
