SMM Morning Comments (Apr 7): Base metals higher on China’s stimulus measures, hopes pandemic spread is slowing

SHANGHAI, Apr 7 (SMM) – Shanghai base metals cruised higher across the board in early morning trade on Tuesday, after returning from the holiday-extended weekend, as investor sentiment was improved by China’s RRR and IOER cuts and an overnight surge on Wall Street. Their counterparts in London also traded broadly higher.

On the SHFE, zinc was 3% higher to lead the gains, while copper was the biggest gainer on the LME with a more than 2% jump.

The People's Bank of China said late Friday it was cutting the amount of cash that small and mid-sized banks must hold as reserves by 100 basis points in two equal steps, the first effective as of April 15 and the second as of May 15, releasing around 400 billion yuan ($56.38 billion) in liquidity to shore up the virus-hit economy. In addition, the interest rates on financial institutions' excess reserves with the central bank would be reduced to 0.35% from 0.72%, effective April 7.

US stocks surged on Monday, and Treasury yields climbed as investors grew more hopeful that the peak in coronavirus cases could be reached soon.

Oil prices dropped on Monday as the OPEC+ alliance of oil producers announced it was delaying a meeting at which it could agree to a production cut.

Overnight on the LME, base metals, except for aluminium, closed higher. Tin jumped 1.6% on the day to lead the gains, copper rose 1.3%, lead climbed 1.2%, zinc advanced 0.9% and nickel gained 0.7%.

The SHFE kept its night trading session suspended.

Copper: Three-month LME copper strengthened to close at $4,904.5/mt on Monday. Stimulus measures, coupled with growing concerns about copper mine supply with major producing countries entering state of emergency, bolstered copper prices. LME copper is expected to trade between $4,970-5,030/mt today, with SHFE copper at 40,300-40,900 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are seen at 130-150 yuan/mt amid market turmoil.

Aluminium: Three-month LME aluminium fell to its lowest since January 2016 at $1,459.5/mt in late European trading session, before it recovered some ground to close the day lower at $1,475/mt. LME aluminium is expected to move at $1,450-1,500/mt today, with the SHFE 2006 contract at 11,400-11,750 yuan/mt. Spot prices are seen at a discount of up to 10 yuan/mt to a premium of up to 10 yuan/mt.  

Zinc: Three-month LME zinc rebounded in North American trading hours, reversing earlier losses to end the day higher at $1,898/mt. It was pressured by the middle Bollinger band but supported by the five- and 10-day moving averages. LME zinc is expected to move at $1,860-1,910/mt today, with the SHFE 2006 contract at 15,100-15,600 yuan/mt. Spot premiums for domestic 0# Shuangyan are seen slightly lower at 40-70 yuan/mt over the SHFE April contract.

Nickel: Three-month LME nickel fluctuated to close the day higher at $11,280/mt on Monday. Whether it could remain above $11,300/mt will come under scrutiny.

Lead: Three-month LME lead slipped to its lowest in more than a week at $1,639.5/mt in European trading hours, before it clawed back those losses to close the day higher at $1,680/mt.

Tin: Three-month LME tin climbed to end at an intraday high of $14,350/mt on Monday, snapping a three-day losing streak. Resistance is seen at the 20-day moving average at $14,600/mt.