[SMM Analysis] weak Lithium hydroxide Market Price pressure on orders of High Nickel Ternary Materials

Zimbabwe's lithium producers have committed approximately $1.45 billion to local beneficiation infrastructure, Lithium Producers Association Chairman Innocent Rukweza said at the Mine Entra Beneficiation and Value Addition Symposium in Bulawayo. The industry is seeking government flexibility on the pending unbeneficiated spodumene export restriction, citing limited sulphate-plant readiness. Of seven major producers, only Prospect Lithium Zimbabwe's Huayou-linked Arcadia plant ($400 million) has commissioned sulphate conversion, exporting Africa's first locally produced lithium sulphate in April 2026. Sinomine's $500 million Bikita plant remains under construction; Kamativi Mining Company's $200 million-plus project is at investment stage; a fourth facility targets end-2027. Concentrate exports move CIF China via Beira and Durban, with grid instability and border/rail congestion at Machipanda, Beitbridge-Durban and Maputo adding risk to export timelines. The industry's effective tax burden is estimated at ~40% of sales revenue (10% export tax, 7% royalties, 3% community levy, 1% MMCZ fee, 15.5% VAT), which the association has called SMM View: Zimbabwe's beneficiation drive remains a one-plant story Arcadia commissioned, three others still at construction or investment stage. Grid reliability and corridor congestion, not capital alone, will determine how fast that gap closes.

Australian lithium developer Mandrake Resources has commenced swabbing activities at its Evelyn Chambers #1 well in Utah's Paradox Basin, targeting bulk brine production from the Mississippian Leadville Formation reservoir. Brine is being extracted from existing perforations within the Leadville Formation originally installed for oil and gas production, now depleted, and not optimised for the modelled high-grade lithium zones within the formation. Mandrake estimates a purpose-drilled lithium brine well, offering more selective zone targeting, would cost approximately $4-million. Production testing will include flow and pressure testing, staged chemical analysis of brine over defined pumping periods, and reservoir deliverability assessment, with results feeding directly into commercial modelling and scoping studies. The work is partly funded by a $1-million federal grant awarded by the US Department of Energy to the Paradox Basin Lithium Group. Bulk brine will be transferred into storage totes for initial supply to Electroflow Technologies and several other direct lithium extraction (DLE) providers. Electroflow's DLE demonstration plant is set to receive 10,000 litres of lithium brine, which will undergo technical and commercial appraisal covering purity, recovery, and processing cost data. Electroflow's stated end-use targets are battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium iron phosphate. Mandrake noted that improved sentiment in the global lithium market has renewed investor and corporate interest in the sector, with several opportunities currently under assessment for the Utah project's development. SMM Outlook: The 10,000-litre initial supply volume to Electroflow is a modest first tranche relative to what a purpose-drilled well could ultimately deliver, but it's sufficient to generate the purity/recovery benchmarks needed before capital is committed to the $4-million dedicated well option. Reservoir deliverability data from the current swabbing campaign rather than the DLE appraisal itself will likely be the binding constraint on how quickly Mandrake can scale supply to multiple DLE partners.

Corica Mali, a subsidiary of Corica Mining Services, has been awarded the open-pit mining services contract at the Goulamina spodumene project in Mali, valued at approximately $348 million. The contract follows a competitive tender process and covers six months of pre-production activity followed by a fixed five-year term. Corica has already mobilised to site under an early works arrangement and is currently carrying out pre-strip and direct shipped ore (DSO) mining and crushing. Scope covers grade control, drill and blast, load and haul, and plant ore-feed services, with a planned material movement target of 18-20 Mt/y over the contract term. This figure refers to total mined material (ore plus waste), distinct from finished spodumene concentrate output Goulamina's Stage 1 definitive feasibility study outlines nameplate production of roughly 506,000 tonnes per annum of 6% Li₂O spodumene concentrate (SC6), with test work validating high-quality, low mica concentrate. On logistics, Goulamina is landlocked, located roughly 50 km west of Bougouni in southern Mali, and spodumene concentrate produced at site is trucked overland to coastal ports for onward shipment to end markets, predominantly Chinese converters. Industry practice for landlocked West African spodumene projects is to sell concentrate on an FOB basis at the export port, with the buyer arranging and bearing ocean freight from that point; Mali-origin concentrate has historically moved primarily via Abidjan, with San Pedro and Dakar available as secondary corridors. Specific Incoterms and export routing for Goulamina's commercial shipments were not disclosed in the contract announcement and should be confirmed against offtake documentation rather than assumed. Goulamina holds all key approvals and permits required for production. Ownership has changed since the original mining contract was announced: Ganfeng Lithium, previously a 50% joint-venture partner, acquired the remaining 40% stake from Leo Lithium in a transaction completed through 2024-2025, and now holds the project alongside the Government of Mali's equity interest under the terms of the country's revised mining code. First commercial shipment from Goulamina occurred in August 2025, superseding the original H1 2024 production target set when the contract was first announced. Corica has operated in the West African mining services sector for over 20 years and reports a workforce of more than 2,000 employees. SMM View: The Corica contract underlines the scale of open-pit mining services demand accompanying Mali's ramp-up as a spodumene supply source, with an 18-20 Mt/y material movement target supporting Goulamina's roughly 506,000 tpa SC6 nameplate capacity. With Ganfeng now holding full private ownership following its 2024-2025 buyout of Leo Lithium's stake, offtake and logistics decisions at Goulamina sit entirely with Ganfeng and the Malian state, reinforcing China's direct control over a growing share of West African spodumene supply reaching Chinese conversion capacity.