SMM4, January 1:
Copper: today, the Asian plate opened at US $4898 / ton in the morning. At present, the overseas epidemic is in a period of rapid development, and there are still strong worries in the market. Last night, the three major stock indexes of the United States stocks fell, superimposed on the official launch of the current crude oil price war. In early trading, copper prices rose 4912.5 US dollars / ton and quickly fell below the US $4900 mark. After finishing in the first line of US $4870 / ton at noon, it once fell below the US $4800 mark after entering the European market. As of 17: 30, the price of copper was $4804 a tonne, down $120, or 2.5 per cent. In the evening, we focused on the number of US ADP employment in March and the EIA crude oil inventory data from March 27 to March 27 in the United States. It is expected that the risk of weakness in the evening market is strong, mainly due to the impact of the current epidemic, and overseas employment expectations are more pessimistic. In addition, weak crude oil demand is difficult to support bulk prices. At present, Lun copper hovers at the $4800 level, with a 10-day moving average below, focusing on the profit turning point of the MACD index. Waiting for the guidance of the US dollar in the evening to test whether Lun Copper can stand and repair the position of US $4800 / ton today, the main contract of Shanghai Copper opened at 39540 yuan / ton in the morning, and then rose slightly to a daily high of 39570 yuan / ton. then the center of gravity fell back slightly and fluctuated narrowly around 39400 yuan / tonne. In the afternoon, copper prices were affected by the decline in crude oil, and quickly fell below the 39000 yuan / ton mark in the morning, changing the trend of maintaining stability in the morning. And down to a daily low of 38860 yuan / ton, the tail rebounded slightly and the center of gravity stood at the 39000 yuan / ton level. Shanghai copper main daily position reduction of 205 hands, to 111000 hands, mainly for the long reduction; trading volume increased by 2794 hands, to 78000 hands. At present, the overall position of the Shanghai copper contract has moved backward. The daily position of the Shanghai copper 2006 contract has increased by 5087 hands to 99000 hands, mainly by short positions, and the trading volume has increased by 16000 hands to 61000 hands. The Shanghai copper index increased its daily position by 3228 hands to 341000 hands, mainly by short positions, and trading volume increased by 34000 hands to 196000 hands. During the day, Shanghai copper continued to decline as a whole, especially in the afternoon. The main reason was that API crude oil stocks rose sharply to 10.5 million barrels early this morning, saying that crude oil may face a huge demand crisis. Oil fields in many places have stopped production one after another. At the same time, there is still no sign of easing in the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. As a result, oil prices continue to fall, and copper prices continue to decline under the influence of linkage. At the same time, the global epidemic in Asia is currently in good control, but the continued surge in the epidemic in the United States has aroused market concern, and nearly 190000 of the confirmed cases have been confirmed, triggering market concern about the US economy, and it is difficult to boost copper prices macroscopically. At present, Shanghai copper is still under pressure at the top, and the MACD red column is still short, indicating that the kinetic energy of the multi-head is still insufficient. Before the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States has not improved significantly, it is expected that Shanghai copper will not be able to fill the immediate gap position in the short term. Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot contract rose 120 yuan / ton to 140 yuan / ton, Pingshui copper transaction price 39540 yuan / ton ~ 39610 yuan / ton, Shengshui copper transaction price 39550 yuan / ton ~ 39620 yuan / ton. The center of gravity of copper in Shanghai period moved up to 39500 yuan / ton. Enter the first day of April, morning market holders continue to lift water delivery, good copper water 150 yuan / ton almost difficult to stay, that is, falling in the water 130 ~ 140 yuan / ton, the market favors flat water copper supply, can still hold firm in the vicinity of 120 yuan / ton, downstream volume reduction, wet copper to maintain yesterday's quotation in the rising water 70 ~ 90 yuan / ton. In the early stage, the absolute value of copper prices was still positive, and at present, copper prices rose and rose underwater to show hesitation; in the continuous high rise underwater, the pace of buying by traders also dropped, and there was some initiative and space to press prices. Traders and downstream performance cautious wait and see, the market initially showed risk aversion waiting mood. In the afternoon, the disk fell and fell below the 39000 yuan / ton mark, the spot quotation continued to be stable, the supply and demand sides continued the zipper state of morning trading, Pingshui copper rose water 120-130 yuan / ton, good copper rose water 130-140 yuan / ton, the transaction price fell back to 39120-39240 yuan / ton with the plate.
Aluminum: Lun aluminum opens at $1527 per ton in the morning. During the Asian period, Lun Aluminium maintained a narrow shock, reaching a high of $1529.5 / tonne at one point in the afternoon at the 5-day moving average. Lun aluminum weakened in the afternoon, trading at $1518 a tonne as of 15: 00. In Europe, Lun aluminum accelerated its decline, continuing to weaken as low as $1496 a tonne, hitting its lowest level since March 2016. As of 17: 23, aluminum was quoted at US $1500.5 / ton. At present, overseas is affected by the intensification of the epidemic, consumption has been greatly weakened. Today's release of European countries PMI data are below 50, also confirmed the current weak consumption, today's LME library briefly stopped growth yesterday, today's recovery increment reached 15450 tons, and the current Shanghai-aluminum ratio has rebounded to about 7.5, considering the overseas epidemic has not yet been brought under control, it is expected that the Shanghai-aluminum ratio will continue to rise, short-term Lun aluminum will continue to bear pressure.
Today, the main force of Shanghai Aluminum was replaced by the 2006 contract. In the morning, the main force of Shanghai aluminum is opened at 11570 yuan / ton. After the opening of the long position, Shanghai aluminum up over the 5-day moving average high touch 11655 yuan / ton 10-day moving average, after the high led to short positions, Shanghai aluminum quickly fell back, and in the afternoon to maintain the 5-day moving average near the interval shock. Shanghai aluminum dived in the afternoon, and maintained a relatively low shock, Shanghai aluminum continued to weaken at the end of the day, the low once hit 11425 yuan / ton, closed at 11445 yuan / ton. The position increased by 12191 to 133318, and the Shanghai Aluminum Index increased by 3482 to 463444. According to SMM statistics, unwrought aluminum and aluminum, aluminum products, other aluminum terminal exports account for about 24% of the total domestic consumption, the current overseas epidemic continues, aluminum price workers downstream generally expressed concern about export orders from April to May. At present, only cables, building materials and other sectors account for a relatively low proportion of exports, and there are expectations for domestic infrastructure investment, and are relatively optimistic about orders from April to May. Overall, the top of Shanghai Aluminum is still under pressure, still need to wait for the overseas epidemic to be brought under control or the landing of domestic consumption stimulus policies.
In the spot market, aluminum prices remained volatile in the early afternoon. Shanghai Wuxi area holder quotation is between 11510-11530 yuan / ton, 30 yuan / ton higher than yesterday's price, 50-30 yuan / ton on the surface of the plate, and 11540-11560 yuan / ton in Hangzhou. The recent market spot easing situation is less than last week, some upstream electrolytic aluminum factory shipment is less, the performance cherishes the sale, the trader in the hands of the supply is a little tight, receiving the goods today is very positive, the holder offers the price situation obviously, in addition, a big customer starts this month purchase plan today, overall, the transaction between traders today is still OK. Downstream today is still normal procurement, the willingness to receive goods is general. In the afternoon, aluminum fell back, a small number of holders quoted in the vicinity of 11460 yuan / ton, the disk sticking around 30 yuan / ton, almost no deal.
Lead: within the day, Lun lead opened low at 1742 US dollars / ton. In the Asian period, Lun lead fluctuated around the daily average, and then dragged down by the weak trend of the inner disk, the shock center of gravity moved down to 1726 US dollars / ton. In the afternoon, the US index pulled up, suppressing the outer plate non-ferrous metals, Lun lead slowly descended again, entering the European period, Lun lead was once as low as US $1704.5 / ton, but the 5-day moving average was supported, and Lun lead was slightly repaired as of 17: 10. Lun lead closed at $1715 a tonne, down $32, or 1.83 per cent. Lun lead temporary bald small negative line, the pace of uplink is suspended, if the night index continues to strengthen, Lun lead or difficult to maintain the 5-day moving average.
Within the day, the Shanghai lead main force 2005 contract opened at 13930 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day, around the daily moving average for a short period of time, after the short funds continued to enter the market, the center of gravity of lead price continued to decline, and finally closed at 13680 yuan / ton, down 210 yuan / ton, down 1.5%, the position was reduced by 1086 hands to 24201. Shanghai lead closed barefoot in the negative line, the upper 24th integer position has strong suppression, and the 5-day moving average trend slowed down, the upward force is obviously insufficient, Shanghai lead this wave uplink market or near the end, the other 4-5 contract monthly difference narrowed to 270 yuan / ton.
Shanghai market Jinsha lead 1427014300 yuan / ton, Shanghai lead 2004 contract water 130-160 yuan / ton quotation, Jiangsu and Zhejiang market south, copper crown, Shuikoushan lead 14290-14300 yuan / ton, Shanghai lead 2004 contract 150-160 yuan / ton quotation. Lead rising momentum is limited, the holder price, and maintain a high price, while the downstream willingness to receive goods is not high, bargaining more, bulk market transaction activity decreased.
Guangdong market South China lead 14150 yuan 14180 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead rose 50 yuan 80 yuan per ton. Henan Yuguang, Wanyang and other smelters to long single, Jinli 14180 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead rose 80 yuan / ton; other areas, such as: Hunan Shuikoushan 14150 yuan 14200 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM1# lead rose 50% 100 yuan / ton (traders); Jiang copper 14200 yuan / ton, the average price of SMM net rose 100 yuan / ton; today's lead price rushed higher and fell back, the market today as a whole trading light, downstream more wait and see, smelter bulk single cargo pressure raised
Zinc: zinc in Geneva opened at US $1900 / ton, Zinc jumped low at the beginning of the day, and fell all the way to the 5-day moving average to find support near the 5-day moving average, then rose back to around US $1880 / tonne. Near the European trading session, Nonferrous Zinc fell in Shanghai and fell twice in a row, probing down 1847 US dollars / ton and then rebounding slightly, followed by a narrow swing around the 5-day moving average. As of 17: 26, Lun Zinc closed down $1858 / tonne, down $48.50 / tonne, or 2.54 per cent. Geneva zinc received bald shaded line, the upper 20-day moving average suppression is stronger. At present, the fermentation situation of the overseas epidemic situation has not yet seen an inflection point, while the suspension of production at the overseas mining end and smelting end is relatively limited, and a large number of factories at the consumer end are shut down. On the whole, overseas is in a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the subsequent macro economic support bill may become the momentum of the return of zinc, but from a fundamental point of view, it is expected that zinc will still run weakly at night.
Within days, the Shanghai zinc main force 2005 contract opened at 15275 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the day, the bulls pulled up Shanghai zinc and quickly touched 15350 yuan / ton, and the bears immediately entered the market to suppress Shanghai zinc. Then, the Shanghai zinc returned to the daily average line of 15270 yuan / ton. Near noon, empty duoping dragged down Shanghai zinc. However, the support of the 10-day moving average line appeared, Shanghai zinc rose back to record V-character reversal, and then the daily average line suppression appeared, and the Shanghai zinc bearing pressure fell back to 15080 yuan / ton. The tail rose to a narrow range of 15150 yuan / ton near the 5-day moving average, closing down at 15140 yuan / ton, up 45 yuan / ton, down 0.3%, trading volume increased by 16996 hands to 69478 hands, position reduced by 1070 hands to 72028 hands. Within the day, Shanghai zinc received a small negative line, the whole in the 10, 20 moving average channel operation, the upper 20 days moving average pressure is greater. The market is still expected to reduce taxes, long and short intertwined violently, but due to the impact of overseas outbreaks on downstream consumption of domestic zinc, as well as domestic demand is still relatively weak, on the whole, the fundamentals give Shanghai zinc return kinetic energy is relatively limited.
Shanghai Zinc mainstream transaction at 1531515385 yuan / ton, Shuangyan transaction at 1532515405 yuan / ton, Shuangyan ordinary price of 70 yuan / ton for April, Shuangyan for 90yuan / ton for April, and 1524515315 yuan / ton for Shuangyan. In the first period of the morning, the market is dominated by long single trading, but the expectation of gambling and tax reduction still exists, traders have a strong willingness to accept goods at low prices, and the mainstream transactions in the market are concentrated in the average price of SMM net or discount of 5 yuan / ton. Some of the monthly ticket holders reported a rise of 80 yuan / ton to the 2004 contract, but the transaction pressure was greater. In the second period, spot prices rose slightly, market trading gradually weakened, and some holders reported a rise of 70 yuan / ton to the 2004 contract. After the zinc price rose to a low level, downstream procurement obviously weakened, low price reserve or hoarding behavior decreased, market trading was mainly concentrated among traders, East China today downstream consumption is general.
The mainstream transaction in Ningbo was 15340-15420 yuan / ton, the ordinary brand rose 100-120 yuan / ton to the 2004 contract, and the price difference between Ningbo and Shanghai ordinary brand remained near 40 yuan / ton yesterday. Today, the Ningbo market supply circulation is more abundant, the holder is active to ship the goods, the morning attempt quotation is not unified. In the morning, West Mine, Tiefeng, Hualian and other brands reported an increase of about 120 yuan / ton in the April contract. Huize continued its quotation yesterday near 120 yuan / ton in April, and a small amount of spot Kirin reported 140 yuan / ton in the April contract. The main reason is that the supply of goods is on the high side, and the overall transaction situation is poor. In addition, the Baohui newspaper was near the 100 yuan / ton increase in the April contract. Today, the spot market rose again, the superimposed disk returned to rise, the downstream transaction situation is very weak, it is reported that the current Ningbo market downstream orders situation is poor, the overall transaction is worse than yesterday.
The mainstream transaction of Guangdong Zinc was 15180-15280 yuan / ton, and the quotation was concentrated in the discount of 10 yuan / ton to Pingshui for Shanghai Zinc 2005 contract. The discount of 120 yuan / ton in Guangdong stock market was 10 yuan larger than that of the previous trading day. The first trading period, the market tax reduction expectations plus futures in the month and the next month price difference widened, the holder quotation is relatively strong, but the market trading is general, individual cardholders discount shipment, the market is mainly a small number of transactions, Kirin, Mengzi, Huize, Tiefeng offer Shanghai zinc May contract discount 10 yuan / ton to flat water. In the second trading period, the monthly spread of futures widened again by 10 yuan, and the quotations quoted by the holders were mostly concentrated in the flat water or rising 10 yuan / ton in the same month, the downstream just needed to be purchased, the traders mainly purchased long orders, and most of them were near the flat price in the market. Kirin, Mengzi, Huize, Tiefeng quoted for the May contract flat to 10 yuan / ton. Kylin, Mengzi, Huize, Tiefeng mainstream transaction in 15180-15280 yuan / ton.
The mainstream transaction of zinc ingots in Tianjin market was 15250-16860 yuan / ton, and that of ordinary brands was 15250-15360 yuan / ton. The contract for 2004 rose from 10 yuan / ton to 80 yuan / ton. Compared with Shanghai stock market, Tianjin market maintained a discount of 50 yuan / ton to 30 yuan / ton. Today, Shanghai zinc fell after the shock, the spot market to raise the discount quotation, the quotation is more unified, the ordinary brand red Ye lark and so on in the 04 contract quotation 50 yuan / ton near, Chi Hong reports in the 04 contract quotation 10 yuan / ton near, the high price brand Zijin to the April contract bid 80 yuan / ton near. Traders continued to raise their discount quotations today as some traders hoarded large quantities of goods in anticipation of tax and fee cuts in the future, while downstream zinc prices and discounts remained high and just needed to be procured. Overall, today's transactions are still mostly between traders, and downstream trading situation is slightly better than yesterday. The transaction of zinc ingot is near 15200-15310 yuan / ton.
Tin: after the opening of US $14535 / ton today, the sub-session generally remained in the vicinity of the opening price. After the opening of the European market, Lunxi came under pressure and rose slightly to $14300 / ton and fluctuated slightly near $14350 / tonne. As of 17: 00, the latest price of Lunxi was $14330 / tonne, showing a negative line. The lower part of the entity is supported by the 5-day moving average, which is expected to be located near the 10-day moving average to the integer level of $13900-14000 / tonne. This evening, we can pay attention to the US March ADP employment (10,000), the US March Markit manufacturing PMI final value, the US March ISM manufacturing PMI and the US EIA crude oil inventory changes for the week ended March 27 (10,000 barrels).
Shanghai tin main force 2006 contract opened today morning 120730 yuan / ton, the beginning of the short position reduction affected by the concussion upward trend, the highest up to the day high 122780 yuan / ton, then the bulls left Shanghai tin pressure fell back, erased most of the previous decline, and finally closed at 121290 yuan / ton, up 640 yuan / ton, up 0.53%, trading volume 44713 hands, position 38120 hands, reduced 1570 hands. Today, Shanghai tin by short and long forces have reduced the impact of the overall state, to a small positive line close, located between the 5 and 20 moving average, short-term attention to Shanghai tin above can effectively break 123000 yuan / ton near the resistance barrier, the lower support is expected to be located in the 5-day moving average and integer level 118000-120000 yuan / ton.
Spot market, today's mainstream transaction price 124700-128700 yuan / ton. Today, the center of gravity of tin disk in Shanghai has moved up on the whole, the buying and prosperity of downstream enterprises has not improved, and a small number of traders are buying bargains. The overall transaction atmosphere of Shanghai tin spot market is generally weak. Shanghai tin 2006 contract set Yunxi rising water 6000 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word rising water 4500-5000 yuan / ton, small brand rising water 40004500 yuan / ton.
Nickel: Lunni opened at $11435 per tonne today. Before noon, Lunni as a whole fluctuated narrowly around the center of gravity of $11400 per tonne. In the afternoon, the dollar index rose sharply, Lunni was affected all the way down, falling below the 5 / 10 moving average resistance of $11250 / ton, European period, pressure away from the daily moving average is difficult to return, as of 17: 30, Lunni was at $11280 / tonne, down $190 / tonne, down 1.66% from the settlement price of the previous trading day, trading volume decreased by 3204 hands to 2435 hands, position reduced by 1645 hands to 227179 hands. Lunni temporarily closed in the small negative column today, MACD green column turned red, the center of gravity of K column today is slightly lower than the previous trading day, the current 5 and 10 moving average adhesion, or will become the agglomeration pressure level, pay attention to the performance of $11300 / ton above Lonel at night.
Shanghai Nickel 2006 contract opened today at 92600 yuan / ton, opened short position reduction, Shanghai nickel pulled up to a daytime high of 93300 yuan / ton line after the pressure fell back, and then Shanghai nickel around the center of gravity 92800 yuan / ton position wide shock, shock range for the 5 / 10 moving average range. In the afternoon, Shanghai nickel fell below the 92600 yuan / ton resistance of the 5-day moving average to 92400 yuan / ton, revised slightly at the end of the session, and finally closed at 92680 yuan / ton, down 140yuan / ton, down 0.15% from the settlement price of the previous trading day. Trading volume increased by 41000 hands to 442000 hands, position decreased by 9121 hands to 83435 hands. Shanghai nickel today in the small positive column, K column station in the 5 / 10 moving average range, from the daily K line can be seen, Shanghai nickel in the past two weeks are basically running in the 91000-94000 yuan / ton range, if there is no big change in the fundamentals in the short term, Shanghai nickel may temporarily maintain a wide range of oscillatory operation.
Today SMM1# electrolytic nickel quotation 92700-94700 yuan / ton, today nickel price wide shock, downstream a small amount of buying, the market trading has not significantly improved, the trading situation of each trader is also good or bad. Today, Russian nickel to Shanghai nickel 2005 contract to apply for 100 yuan / ton to flat water, flat water supply transaction is general, the market has the new version of Russian nickel spot report 100 yuan / ton transaction is still OK, taking into account the expectation of tax reduction, there is a flow between traders to fill the warehouse, downstream demand is still just needed for small purchase. Jinchuan Nickel to Shanghai Nickel 05 contract rose 1600-1800 yuan / ton, the transaction did not warm up due to the correction of rising water. Today, Jinchuan company ex-factory price held steady at 94500 yuan / ton for the third day in a row, Shanghai area is still relatively small, Jinchuan No. 1 nickel rising water is expected to continue to maintain. It is reported that today's manufacturers to Jinchuan No. 2 nickel, No. 3 nickel price adjustment, an increase of about 500 yuan / ton, compared with the Russian nickel price difference has narrowed, will have a certain impact on the enthusiasm of traders to receive goods, other domestic brands of nickel board may have more shipping opportunities.
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