[focus] Global epidemic tracking: new Crown confirmed cases in the United States more than 180000 * Italy New Crown epidemic is entering a plateau * New debt King says the US stock market will fall below the low hit in March

SMM4, January 1: who real-time statistics show that as of 18:00 CET on March 31 (00: 00 Beijing time on April 1), 754948 cases of new crown pneumonia have been confirmed and 36571 cases have died. At present, there have been more than 670000 cases of new crown pneumonia in 202 countries and regions around the world. The United States has become the country with the worst epidemic overseas. According to data, more than 180000 confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia have been reported in the United States, and between 100000 and 240000 people are expected to die from the new crown in the United States. Trump said the United States will be very painful in the next two weeks.

Focus of the day

[who: a total of 754948 confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia worldwide] WHO real-time statistics show that as of 18:00 CET on 31 March (0: 00 Beijing time on 1 April), 754948 cases of new crown pneumonia have been confirmed and 36571 deaths have been reported. At present, there are more than 670000 cases of new crown pneumonia in 202 countries and regions around the world and more than 670000 cases outside China.

[more than 180000 confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in the United States] according to the Global New Crown pneumonia epidemic Real-time Statistics system released by Johns Hopkins University, as of 6: 00 p.m. Est, a total of 184183 confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia were reported in the United States. 3810 cases died and 6910 cases were cured. In the past 24 hours, there have been 22816 new confirmed cases and 854 new deaths in the United States. Of these, 75976 were confirmed in New York State and 43139 in New York City.

[between 100000 and 240000 people in the United States are expected to die from the new crown, Trump said the next two weeks will be very painful. "even if US residents can adhere to the current" keep social distance "principle, 100000 to 240000 people in the United States will die of pneumonia in the future, according to several foreign media reports. Mr Trump told the meeting that the next two weeks would be "very, very painful". "I want every American to be prepared for these difficult times," he said.

[Secretary-General of the United Nations: the New Crown pneumonia epidemic is the biggest test of the United Nations since its inception] on 31 March local time, United Nations Secretary-General Guterres issued a report entitled "shared responsibility, global solidarity: addressing the socio-economic impact of the new crown virus", and called on everyone to act together to address the negative impact of the crisis and mitigate the blow to people. Guterres said the new crown virus is the biggest test we have faced together since the founding of the United Nations. This human crisis requires concerted, decisive, inclusive and innovative policy actions from the world's major economies, as well as maximum financial and technical support for the most vulnerable people and countries. He said the IMF had reassessed its growth prospects for 2020 and 2021 and declared that the world had entered a recession as bad or worse as in 2009. As a result, the report calls for a response to at least 10 per cent of global gross domestic product.

[Gundlach, the "new bond king", says US stocks will fall below the low they hit in March. Jeffrey Gundlach, a bond fund manager, believes the S & P 500 could fall below its March low in April as economic uncertainty makes investors more anxious. "I think there will be another sense of panic in April," Gundlach, DoubleLine Capital's chief investment officer, said on Tuesday in a webcast about the market and economic impact of the new crown virus pandemic. The S & P 500 fell 12.5% in March, its worst monthly performance since October 2008. The index's decline ended the longest bull market in history.

"New debt King" Gonrac:

It is unlikely to reverse the economic downturn in the second quarter in the third quarter.

The $10 trillion fiscal and monetary stimulus seems conservative.

If the Vasle: crisis continues, the ECB is likely to implement new measures.

Update on the global epidemic:

(source: Sina Finance and Economics)

China

[latest data] as of 09:50 on April 1, the total number of confirmed cases of Xinguan epidemic in China was 82613, the existing confirmed cases were 3059, the cumulative death toll was 3315, the cumulative number of cured cases was 76239, and the cumulative number of imported cases abroad was 771.

The United States

The Trump administration has issued 30 days of "social distance" guidelines in response to a new epidemic of crown pneumonia in the United States.

According to a report by the San Francisco Chronicle, on March 30, local time, more than 100 people on board the aircraft carrier Roosevelt were infected with new crown pneumonia. The captain of the US aircraft carrier urgently wrote a letter asking all the crew to disembark from the ship to detect and quarantine so as to prevent the situation from deteriorating. Earlier, the number of confirmed cases of the Roosevelt infection rose sharply after three people were infected at sea, although so far, the infected people have no serious symptoms, but senior military officials said last week that more than 4000 officers and soldiers on board the ship needed to be tested. At present, the ship is still moored in Guam.

[Trump called on Americans not to "rob masks" with hospitals: you can wear scarves, and it's good. Trump discussed the potential need for American people to wear masks at a news conference on March 31, local time, according to CNN (CNN). Americans "can wear scarves" instead of masks, he said. "you know, you can use a scarf. A lot of people have scarves. You can use scarves. The scarf is still good, and my feeling is that if people want to do this (wear a scarf), there must be no harm. "

[Trump said impeachment may have distracted attention from the epidemic.] at a news conference at the White House on the 31st, Trump said that if he had not been impeached, he would not have reacted differently to the early signs of the spread of the new crown virus. "I don't think my actions will be very different, otherwise I wouldn't have moved faster," Trump said. " Trump's response came after Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell accused Democrats of distracting the Trump administration through impeachment during the early spread of the new crown virus. "I think I handled it well, but I guess it's probably [a distraction]," Trump said. I mean, I was impeached. I think, you know, I did take a little time to think about it. "

Us President Donald Trump:

If there is a second wave of new epidemic in the United States, it will be "well prepared."

To stay healthy, spend most of your time in the White House.

A travel ban on certain countries is being considered.

The new crown virus is the worst thing the United States has ever witnessed.

[the death toll from the New Crown virus in New York City is more than 1000] as of 5pm local time on Tuesday, New York City had reported 1096 deaths from the new crown virus.

[new York State orders 17000 ventilators from China] according to CCTV News, New York Governor Cuomo said at a news conference on March 31 that New York has ordered 17000 ventilators from China at US $25000 each. But the state is expected to get only 2500 because California, Illinois and the federal government have ordered the same ventilators. Cuomo also accused the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) (Federal Emergency Management Agency) of pushing up prices by snapping up ventilators.

Us President Donald Trump has declared a disaster in Ohio because of the new crown epidemic.

U. S. President Donald Trump has approved a disaster in Montana due to the new crown pneumonia epidemic.

Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, expects the unemployment rate to rise to more than 10 per cent as the economy slows during the coronavirus pandemic, but disagrees with other forecasts of more than 30 per cent. "our estimate at the Cleveland Fed is not 30 per cent, but it is certainly more than 10 per cent, which is reasonable given that we have closed many sectors of the economy," Mester said in an interview. "I expect the economic figures for the first and second quarters to be very bad, and after that will depend entirely on the development of the epidemic."

Federal Reserve Meister:

It is expected to see very bad US economic data for some time. The Federal Reserve has taken very supportive monetary policy action to help the federal government deal with the new crown pneumonia epidemic. It will already determine the duration of the downturn in the U. S. economy. We are encouraging the banking sector to lend.

We encourage bank loans. The Fed is doing everything it can to support the market and ensure that the market remains functioning properly. There is no regret voting against cutting interest rates to zero and more measures are being studied to boost financial markets.

The duration of the slowdown will depend on the epidemic.

[the escalation of the US nuclear-powered aircraft carrier epidemic is likely to repeat the tragedy of the Diamond Princess] according to US media reports, a senior officer of the US nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt said on Monday that the number of new confirmed cases of crown pneumonia on the carrier had risen from 35 to nearly 200. The San Francisco Chronicle reported that Captain Crozel wrote in a handwritten letter submitted on March 30 that, given the closeness of the interior space of the battleship, the aircraft carrier Roosevelt was likely to repeat the tragedy of the Diamond Princess. He asked the naval department to allow most of the crew to get off the ship and quarantine in order to avoid the death of naval personnel.

Us Treasury officials:

If all the $350 billion in the small business loan program is used up, the Treasury will raise more money.

The highest interest rate for small business loans is 0.5%.

Small Business Administration officials say they will grant $350 billion in anti-epidemic loans on a first-come-first-served basis.

[us Media: according to Model estimates, the number of deaths in the United States may reach 82000] Deborah Burkes, White House New Crown virus response Coordinator, said at a recent news conference that, according to the model, even if the "social distance advice" measures last until May, as of August this year, the number of deaths from the new crown pneumonia epidemic in the United States may reach 82000. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, also said recently that according to some data models, more than 1 million or even 2 million of confirmed cases in the United States are possible. If this worst-case scenario does occur, then the number of deaths could reach 100000 to 200000. He also said the outbreak could break out twice in the fall. A previous analysis released by the University of Washington School of Medicine predicted that the peak of the epidemic in the United States will arrive in April and will continue until June, and does not rule out another attack in the autumn and winter season. The analysis estimates that the number of deaths in the United States may be between 38000 and 162000.

[California welfare food voucher program applicants surged during the outbreak] the outbreak of the new crown in the United States has forced many Californians to lose their incomes and jobs. While the new crown epidemic has caused huge losses to the California economy, the number of applications for the California food voucher program (CalFresh) has soared in a record-breaking manner. The California Food voucher Program provides benefits for low-income federally eligible people to receive free food vouchers to help more residents who are unable to meet their food needs because of unemployment or financial hardship.

Korea

South Korea's stock market will be closed on April 15 for parliamentary elections.

South Korean exports to China fell 5.8 per cent in March from a year earlier.

[South Korean Finance Minister: severe export shock has not yet emerged] according to a statement, South Korean Finance Minister Hong Nanji said exports in March were helped by semiconductors and a year-on-year increase in working days. Despite the deterioration in the global economic and trade situation, a severe "shock" to exports may not yet have emerged.

Japan

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe:

The fiscal stimulus will raise money by issuing bonds. Leave monetary policy to the Bank of Japan.

The aviation industry is part of the infrastructure and wants to support them.

It is hoped that greater economic measures will be introduced than during the shock of the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Kuroda: buy bonds to achieve price stability targets.

[confidence among Japanese manufacturers fell to its lowest level since 2013] confidence among large Japanese manufacturers plummeted in March, adding to fears of a deep recession and increasing pressure on Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to launch a stimulus package to boost the epidemic-hit Japanese economy. Confidence among big auto and electronics makers fell from 0 to-8, the lowest level in seven years, according to a quarterly short-view survey released by the Bank of Japan on Wednesday. Negative numbers mean pessimism outweighs optimism, which economists had expected to be minus 10.

Public schools in Tokyo, Japan will be closed until early May.

Italy

[Italian medical and health experts: the epidemic of New Crown pneumonia in Italy is entering a plateau.] on March 31, Brusafero, president of the Italian Institute of Advanced Health, said that the growth curve of the epidemic of New Crown pneumonia in Italy is leveling off, and the epidemic is entering a plateau period. but the public must not take it lightly.

Italian "Evening Post" website on the evening of March 31 local time quoted the country's Constitutional Court Information Office notice, Italian Constitutional Court President Marta Caldabia's new crown virus test positive.

Other areas

[a total of 647 new confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia have been confirmed in New Zealand] on 1 April, New Zealand health authorities confirmed that 61 new confirmed and suspected cases of new crown pneumonia had been reported in New Zealand in the past 24 hours. Of the 61 cases, 47 were confirmed and 14 were suspected. New Zealand has a total of 647 confirmed and 69 suspected cases of new crown pneumonia, of which 14 are being treated in hospitals.

Venezuela has 8 new confirmed cases of crown pneumonia, a total of 143 cases.

The cumulative number of confirmed cases of Xinguan pneumonia in Germany has exceeded 70 000, reaching 71690 cases, and the cumulative death rate has reached 774 cases.

[1138 new cases of new crown pneumonia in Brazil have been confirmed, a total of 5717 cases have been confirmed.] as of 16:00 local time, a total of 5717 cases of new crown pneumonia were confirmed in Brazil, 1138 more than the previous day. This is the largest increase in the number of infected people since the outbreak of new crown pneumonia in Brazil. Most of the new cases were in the state of Sao Paulo, where 822 new cases were confirmed in one day. There were 201 deaths nationwide, with a mortality rate of 3.5%.

[the number of new crown pneumonia cases in Canada has increased to more than 8591 deaths] British Columbia, Canada, released statistics on the new crown epidemic in the last province on 31 March local time. There were 43 new confirmed cases of crown pneumonia in the province, with a total of 1013 cases. There were 5 new deaths, a total of 24. Earlier in the day, Quebec announced a total of 4162 new cases. It was the largest number of new infections in the province so far. The number of deaths increased to 31. As of 18:20 local time, Canada had a total of 8591 new crown cases and 101 deaths.

[5358 new confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia were confirmed in Israel] late at night local time, the latest epidemic report released by the Israeli Ministry of Health showed that in the past 12 hours (10:00 on the 31st to 22:00 on the 31st), the number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in the country has increased by 527 cases, a total of 5358 cases, the largest increase in the number of confirmed cases since the outbreak of the epidemic, 3 new deaths and 20 cumulative deaths. 94 cases were in critical condition, of which 76 cases were intubated and 224 cases recovered.

National response measures and related impacts

[the Minister of Health for compulsory wearing of masks in Jena, Germany says there is no need for national promotion for the time being] in response to the current sustainable new crown epidemic, the eastern German city of Jena has announced that it will follow the example of Austria. In a week's time, all citizens will be required to wear masks or scarves to cover their mouths and noses when shopping and using public transport. This is the first German city to take such a measure. In response, German Federal Health Minister Span said on the 31st that there is no need to implement the above measures in all Germany at present.

[foreign media: Wimbledon tennis organizers will discuss whether to cancel the tournament on Wednesday] the Financial Times quoted unnamed sources as saying that the all England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club will hold an emergency board meeting on Wednesday and is likely to announce the cancellation of the tournament for the first time since World War II.

The Australian Federal Reserve:

Most countries are likely to experience a sharp contraction. There is the possibility of a substantial contraction in Australia.

Buying bonds would expand the balance sheet; the focus of the bond-buying programme would be on the level of yields, not on scale.

The unemployment rate is likely to rise significantly in the coming months.

[RBA: cash rates will remain at very low levels for a few years] minutes of the RBA meeting: the package of measures will build the necessary bridges for recovery; members pointed out that yields will take some time to reach the target level; cash interest rates will remain at very low levels for several years; it is appropriate to remove the yield target before raising cash rates.

[German economy Minister: the outbreak will have a greater impact on the German economy than the financial crisis, "German economy Minister Peter Altmaier said. The impact of the new crown virus epidemic on the economy is likely to be more severe than it was during the financial crisis in 2009. "most people now expect economic growth to fall faster than during the financial crisis," Altmaier told German media. "We now put more money into the economy than we did during the financial crisis." He said the German economy was likely to rebound in the second half of the year.

The New Zealand Treasury expects GDP to shrink by at least 10 per cent in the second quarter.

Central Bank of Chile: increase the size of the bank bond purchase program. Interest rates are likely to remain stable for a long time.

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