High Aluminum Prices Suppress Stockpiling Demand for the Chinese New Year, Extended Holiday Periods for Alloys and Downstream Die-Casting [SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment]
[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: High Aluminum Prices Suppress Stockpiling Demand for Chinese New Year, Alloy and Downstream Die-Casting Plants Extend Holiday Periods] Spot market, A00 aluminum price dropped back slightly by 420 yuan/mt to 23,340 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while SMM ADC12 price was lowered by 200 yuan/mt to 23,600 yuan/mt. Futures turned weak again, and secondary aluminum market quotations generally followed the decline, with most enterprises cutting prices by about 200 yuan/mt; driven by the price pullback, downstream buyers mainly restocked on dips, and transactions improved slightly. Supply side, as the Chinese New Year approaches, secondary aluminum plants have successively clarified their production plans for the holiday, with most enterprises suspending production between February 5 and 13, and resuming operations concentrated after the eighth day of the first lunar month or after the Lantern Festival. The expected furnace shutdown period is 8–20 days, with the average suspension time extending by about 2 days YoY, mainly affected by factors such as recent intensified aluminum price fluctuations, widespread production cuts downstream, and tightening policies along with ongoing environmental protection-related controls. Overall, downstream demand continues to contract, and fundamental support for prices is marginally weakening. In the short term, secondary aluminum alloy prices are expected to hover at highs, with the price center dropping back slightly.