Macro Roundup (Mar 12)

SHANGHAI, Mar 12 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected in the day ahead.

 Last night

The US dollar declined before recovered some losses on Wednesday, as fears over the coronavirus pushed investors into safe havens, while sterling rebounded after the Bank of England unexpectedly cut interest rates. 
Investors were also disappointed after US President Donald Trump made no major announcements on stimulus measures. Mr. Trump said on Tuesday he would ask Congress for a payroll tax cut and other "very major" stimulus moves, but the details remain unclear. 
The Standard & Poor's 500 index plunged again Wednesday, narrowly avoiding its first bear market since the financial crisis after the World Health Organization declared a global pandemic as the coronavirus rapidly spreads across the world.
LME base metals closed lower across the board with nickel leading the losses with a drop of 2.24%. Zinc fell 0.5%, tin lost 0.18%, aluminum shed 1.76%, lead slipped 1.86%, and copper declined 1.38%.
On the data front, growth of outstanding total social financing (TSF) in China, a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy, was 10.7% in February, unchanged from 10.7% in January.
TSF includes off-balance sheet forms of financing that exist outside the conventional bank lending system, such as initial public offerings, loans from trust companies and bond sales.
In February, TSF tumbled to 855.4 billion yuan from 5.07 trillion yuan in January, compared with expectations of 1.6 trillion yuan for February. 
China's broad M2 money supply in February grew 8.8% from a year earlier, central bank data showed on Wednesday, above estimates of 8.5%. It rose 8.4% in January.
US consumer prices increased slightly last month, driven by more expensive food.
The Labor Department said Wednesday that the consumer price index (CPI) ticked up 0.1% last month, matching its January increase. Prices rose 2.3% compared with a year earlier. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, prices increased 0.2% in February and 2.4% compared with a year earlier.
"If you still care about it, US inflation looked a touch firmer than expected in February, but clearly doesn't stand in the way of further Fed rate cuts," said Avery Shenfeld, senior economist at CIBC.
Data Wednesday from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed that US crude supplies rose by 7.7 million barrels for the week ended March 6. The government agency had reported increases in each of the previous six weeks.
The EIA data also showed supply declines of 5 million barrels for gasoline and 6.4 million barrels for distillates. 
In a monthly report released Wednesday, the EIA cut its oil-price and US crude production estimates. The EIA pegged its 2020 WTI oil price forecast at $38.19 a barrel, down 31% from its previous view. It also reduced its Brent crude price forecast by 29% to $43.30 for 2020. The agency expects US crude production of 12.99 million barrels a day this year, down 1.6% from the previous view.

Day ahead

The US will publish data on its weekly unemployment claims and its producer price index (PPI) for February. The eurozone will release data on the European Central Bank’s main refinancing rate.