SMM Morning Comments (Mar 10): Shanghai base metals rebounded on Tuesday morning

Published: Mar 10, 2020 10:03 (GMT+8)

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LME base metals extended their declines for the most part on Monday, with copper leading the losses with a drop of 1.89%. Zinc fell 0.53%, nickel lost 1.83%, lead shed 1.85%, while aluminum gained 0.21% and tin added 0.21%.

SHANGHAI, Mar 10 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals opened higher across the board on Tuesday morning, recovering from the slumps on Monday which were triggered by coronavirus fears and an oil price crash.

US shares went into a steep slide Monday as a combination of COVID-19 concerns and a crash in oil prices spread alarm through the market, resulting in the first automatic halt in trading in over two decades.

Copper: Three-month LME copper declined to the lowest level in more than three years at $5433/mt before it pared some losses and closed down 1.89% lower on the day at $5,524/mt. Gold prices climbed above $1,700/oz as investors flocked to safety amid growing concerns about an oil price war and the deadly coronavirus. Today, LME copper is expected to trade between $5,480-5,540/mt with the most-active SHFE contract at 436,000-44,000 yuan/mt. Spot offers are expected to flip to premium as high as 10 yuan/mt as reduced futures prices attract spot purchases.

Aluminium: Three-month LME aluminium fell to the lowest level since October 2016 at $1,644/mt, before it regained the losses and closed up 0.21% on the day at $1,694/mt. Trading range is expected at $1650-1710/mt today, with the most-active SHFE contract hovering between 12,750-13,050 yuan/mt.

Zinc: Three-month LME zinc trimmed losses after slipped to a session low of $1,913/mt as short-covering lifted it to a high of $1,991.5/mt and settled it 0.53% lower on the day at $1,977.5/mt. LME zinc inventories shrank 100 mt, or 0.13% on Monday to 74,300 mt. Operating rates across zinc downstream processors in China are expected to climb further this week, and the support to new orders will be closely monitored. LME zinc is seen trading between $1,950-2,000/mt today with the most-traded SHFE contract at 15,400-15,900 yuan/mt.

Nickel: Three-month LME nickel lost support from the Bollinger middle band and dipped to an intraday low of $12,300/mt after a slump in crude oil prices dampened market sentiment. It regained some declines and finished the day 1.83% lower at $12,600/mt. SMM expects LME nickel to test the $12,600/mt level today.

Lead: Three-month LME lead extended its declines and ended down 1.85% on the day at $1,805/mt with an intraday low of $1,799/mt. Support from $1800/mt will be monitored today.

Tin: Three-month LME tin recovered early losses as it bounced back from a session low of $16,440/mt and closed at $16,795/mt, up $35/mt on the day. It received support from the 20-day moving average. Today, pressure above is seen from $16,900/mt.

Morning Comments Futures movement

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