SMM Evening Comments (Mar 3): Shanghai base metals extended gains on demand recovery in China

SHANGHAI, Mar 3 (SMM) – Shanghai base metals moved mostly higher on Tuesday, extending gains from a rally in the previous session, on hopes that demand in China will receive a boost following the slowdown in new COVID-19 cases in China, re-openings of factories and support measures from Beijing.

Concerns about the virus outbreak beyond China, however, limited gains in base metals.  

On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, tin, copper and nickel advanced 1.4%, zinc rose 0.7%, aluminium gained 0.5%, while lead stayed flat. Their counterparts on the London Metal Exchange traded mixed.

The SHFE has suspended night trading session until further notice.

Copper: The most-traded SHFE 2004 contract erased some gains from a higher open, ending at 45,620 yuan/mt. It now faces a resistance confluence of the 10- and 20-day moving averages, and whether it could hold above 45,500 yuan/mt will come under scrutiny tomorrow.

Aluminium: The most-active SHFE 2004 contract weakened from a higher open and closed at 13,280 yuan/mt. Growing inventories weigh on SHFE aluminium, while a rally in LME aluminium will offer support. SHFE aluminium is expected to continue to oscillate around the five-day moving average tomorrow.

Zinc: The most-liquid SHFE 2005 contract hovered in a 30 yuan/mt range around the daily moving average at 16,240 yuan/mt during the day, and closed at 16,255 yuan/mt. The contract has yet to shrug off resistance at the five-day moving average, as investors remain cautious before inventories stage a turnaround. SHFE zinc is expected to remain under pressure from moving averages in the short term.

Nickel: The most-traded SHFE 2006 contract eased from a higher open and ended at 102,870 yuan/mt. The contract has stood above the five- and 10-day moving averages, and faces resistance from the middle Bollinger band.

Lead: The most-liquid SHFE 2004 contract eased on the day, relinquishing gains from a higher open, and ended flat at 14,580 yuan/mt. Recovering supply from secondary lead smelters grows risks of a pull-back.

Tin: The most-traded SHFE 2006 contract consolidated around the daily moving average at 135,800 yuan/mt after a higher open, and ended at 135,640 yuan/mt. The contract now resides around the 10-day moving average, under pressure from the 40-day one but supported by the five- and 20-day ones. Resistance is seen at 136,000 yuan/mt.