SMM2, March 28: crude oil futures continued to fall today, the U. S. crude oil futures fell to 3%, to $45.6 / barrel, the lowest since December 2018, Brent crude oil also fell nearly 3%. The previous crude oil 04 contract fell to a low of 353.5 yuan per barrel. In the near future, the main operation logic of crude oil is not the supply of OPEC and other issues, but is reduced to almost completely affected by the current situation of the epidemic situation of crude oil trend. The previous wave of downlink is mainly the impact of the domestic epidemic, coupled with the Spring Festival travel and local traffic restrictions, air tickets, train tickets refund tide swept, crude oil demand has been hit hard. However, with the improvement of the epidemic situation in our country, there has also been a wave of rebound on the disk. However, at the beginning of this week, the global epidemic has once again concentrated, the market has not yet responded in time and history is happening again.
At home, it has been reported that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, will cut crude oil supplies to China by at least 500000 barrels a day. It is understood that China generally imports 180-2 million barrels of Saudi crude oil per day. In China, PetroChina and Sinopec have reduced the processing rate of crude oil.
Main force of American oil (left) main force of oil distribution (right)
South Korea's Central Ministry of epidemic Prevention reported on the 28th that as of 9: 00 a.m. local time on the 28th, South Korea had 256 new confirmed cases compared with 4: 00 p.m. the previous day, with a total of 2022 confirmed cases. According to Italian television, so far, Italy has confirmed a total of 655 cases of new crown infection; so far, a total of 270 cases have been confirmed in Iran, of which 26 have died.
Technical analysts say US crude oil could fall further to $44.66 a barrel as prices have fallen below support of $46.54. On the daily chart, the triangular flag suggests a target of $39.63 and a realistic target of $43.43, which will be confirmed when oil prices fall below $45.78. Industry insiders say the oil market wants allies such as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC) and Russia to cut production more. The OPEC+ Technical Committee has recommended a production cut of 600000 barrels per day, and we now believe that a much bigger cut is needed to support oil prices.
OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said in a recent interview that countries are determined to reach a consensus on joint action to mitigate excessive volatility in the current market. OPEC intends to continue its meeting on March 5-6 as planned, when it will discuss the outbreak in depth. But Russia has not yet decided whether to cut production further. Standard Chartered analysts said in a report that Russia's procrastination risks causing oil prices to plummet.
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