SMM Evening Comments (Feb 25): Shanghai base metals mostly rebounded but upside capped by coronavirus fears

Published: Feb 25, 2020 18:11

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On the SHFE, nickel added 0.7% to lead the gains, lead rose 0.3%, aluminium and copper gained about 0.2%. Tin dipped 0.04%, and zinc dropped 1.3%.

SHANGHAI, Feb 25 (SMM) – Most of Shanghai base metals cruised higher on Tuesday, recouping losses from the previous session on fears surrounding a spike in new cases from the coronavirus (COVID-19) outside China.

The gains, however, were limited as the virus fears lingered. Stocks across the globe and oil prices tumbled on Monday, while gold prices spiked.

On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, nickel added 0.7% to lead the gains, lead rose 0.3%, aluminium and copper gained about 0.2%. Tin dipped 0.04%, and zinc dropped 1.3%. Base metals on the London Metal Exchange, meanwhile, turned higher across the board. .

The SHFE has suspended night trading session until further notice.

Copper: The most-traded SHFE 2004 contract slipped to a two-week low of 45,670 yuan/mt, before it clawed back those losses to close the day 0.15% firmer at 45,950 yuan/mt. SHFE copper remains under the pressure from the 10-day moving average, with KDJ indicators in a bearish bias. Whether it could remain above 45,900 yuan/mt will come under scrutiny tomorrow.

Aluminium: As shorts took profits, the most-active SHFE 2004 contract rallied from a new one-year low of 13,445 yuan/mt to settle the day 0.22% stronger at 13,535 yuan/mt. Upside room in SHFE aluminium is expected to be limited by the absence of a substantial consumption recovery in the short term.

Zinc: The most-liquid SHFE 2004 contract further weakened after a sharp decline on Monday. It slipped to a new more than three-year low of 16,440 yuan/mt, before it recovered some ground to end the day 1.25% lower at 16,560 yuan/mt. Without developments to spark bigger moves, SHFE zinc is expected to hover at lows as investors weigh nearby supply surplus against future inventory destocking.

Nickel: The most-traded SHFE 2004 contract reversed an earlier slip to an intraday high of 102,930 yuan/mt, as shorts trimmed their positions. The contract finished the day 0.7% higher at 102,670 yuan/mt. SHFE nickel now resides around the 102,000 yuan/mt level and faces pressure from the five-day moving average.

Lead: The most-liquid SHFE 2004 contract oscillated in a wide range to close the day 0.34% stronger at 14,560 yuan/mt. SHFE lead hovered at recent highs, with support sustained at the 10-day moving average. Positive fundamentals are likely to deter SHFE lead from giving back previous gains.

Tin: SHFE tin stemmed its rally, edging down 0.04% to end at 136,670 yuan/mt. Support is seen at 135,000 yuan/mt.

Evening comments Copper Aluminium Zinc Nickel Tin Lead

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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