SMM basic Metals spot Trading Weekly Review (2020.02.17-2020.02.21)

SMM, 21 Feb:

Copper: this week copper center of gravity slightly downward trend in the consolidation of weak. On the macro front, the eurozone economic sentiment index was significantly lower than expected, increasing international concerns about the economic situation in Europe. According to the attitude of officials in the minutes of the latest US Federal Reserve meeting, the current monetary policy in the United States is appropriate and the economic situation is stable. the dollar index rose strongly to 99.9, a new high in nearly three years, suppressing copper. Lun copper edged up to a weekly high near $5820 / tonne at the beginning of the week, then blocked, twisting around the 5-day moving average for many days, hovering around $5780 / tonne and falling slightly to $5720 a tonne near the weekend, down 1.72 per cent a week. Lun copper position decreased by more than 14000 hands to 315000 hands, mainly for the long reduction. At present, the copper is negative, the top pressure 10-day moving average, the week has always been under pressure in Brin rail pressure, the technical side of the high resistance is obviously weak.

This week, the low level of Shanghai lead continued to climb, technically re-standing on the 20-day moving average; at the beginning of the week, driven by the strong lead, Shanghai lead continued to rise, and then obtained some obstacles near the 20-day moving average, but after a short consolidation of two days, Shanghai lead on Friday launched an offensive uplift, the high once reached 14650 yuan / ton, and successfully stood on the 20-day moving average, as of Friday, Shanghai lead reported at 14640 yuan / ton. In terms of fundamentals, logistics in various regions will begin to recover one after another from this week. From the point of view of the release of national policies, the logistics situation in various regions is expected to improve further into the next week. From the point of view of the resumption of work by downstream enterprises, large lead battery enterprises have basically resumed work, the operating rate has increased month-on-month, and lead consumption has been driven, and the supply is due to problems such as sulfuric acid and the transportation of raw materials. Some of the primary lead refineries should reduce production, and the resumption of recycling has been further delayed, resulting in a change in the pattern of supply and demand, coupled with the recent frequent counter-cyclical adjustment in China, the mood and fundamentals have helped push prices higher, and next week we will focus on the situation of regeneration and recovery of logistics, waiting for the opportunity to short the inflection point of supply recovery. It is estimated that the running range of Shanghai lead is 14350-14850 yuan / ton.

The spot transaction price this week is 14300-14500 yuan / ton. Lead prices rebounded this week, downstream large and medium-sized lead battery enterprises returned to work month-on-month increase, lead ingot market trading relatively improved this week. As for primary lead refineries, although the recovery of logistics in various regions is improving this week, steam transportation in individual areas is still restricted, and the shortage of raw materials in some primary refineries has led to a reduction in production, alleviating the pressure of short-term supply. In addition, this week, the refineries have started to quote shipments one after another, and as of Friday, the refineries have quoted an average price of 50 yuan / ton to the SMM net. Trade market trading this week is relatively light, although terminal consumption has recovered, but lead battery procurement has not yet returned to the pre-festival level, as of Friday, domestic lead to Shanghai lead 2003 contract discount of 30 yuan / ton to flat water quotation; recycled lead enterprises resumed work this week delayed, in addition to some large enterprises in the market has not yet resumed work.

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