SMM Evening Comments (Feb 12): Shanghai base metals edged lower on coronavirus uncertainty

SHANGHAI, Feb 12 (SMM) – Shanghai nonferrous metals, except for lead, closed marginally lower on Wednesday as uncertainty lingers over the economic impact of a coronavirus outbreak. Continued transportation curbs kept the resumption of downstream producers at a slow pace. 

SHFE copper eased 0.07%, aluminum fell 0.22%, zinc lost 0.32%, tin slipped 0.43%, nickel dropped 0.82%, while lead advanced 0.74%. 

The ferrous complex traded higher as iron ore ended up 3.16%, rebar gained 0.32%, hot-rolled coil added 0.53%, stainless steel increased 1.01%, and coke went up 2.5%. 

The SHFE night trading session has been suspended since last week until further notice.

Copper: The most-traded SHFE 2003 contract failed to extend a price rally from the previous two sessions as the slow resumption of copper processing and other downstream sectors grew concerns about the economic impact of coronavirus. The contract did not breach pressure from the five-day moving average as it stemmed increase at a session high of 45730 yuan/mt, ending 0.07% lower on the day at 45,580 yuan/mt. The upward momentum will still be capped before the virus is effectively contained. A lack of support from technical indicators may see the contract testing support from 45,500 yuan/mt. 

Aluminium: The most-traded SHFE contract relinquished gains from Tuesday as departing longs dragged it from an intraday high of 13,840 yuan/mt, ending it at 13,745 yuan/mt, 0.25% lower on the day. Greater arrivals in the spot market and delayed recovery of demand buoyed social inventories of primary aluminium. This may keep the contract under pressure from 14,000 yuan/mt. 

Zinc: The most-liquid SHFE 2004 contract trimmed some losses from the daytime as it recovered from an intraday low of 16,975 yuan/mt with loaded-up long positions. The contract lost 0.32% on the day and finished at 17,080 yuan/mt. Depressed consumption amid virus outbreak will keep zinc prices under pressure, but support is seen from 17,000 yuan/mt. 

Nickel: The most-traded SHFE 2004 contract rebounded after fell steeply to an intraday low of 103,660 yuan/mt, ending down 0.82% on the day at 105,130 yuan/mt. The junction of the five- and 10- day moving averages, or the 105,200 yuan/mt level, offered some support. 

Lead: The most-liquid contract switched to the SHFE 2004 contract, which rallied after slipped to a low of 14,120 yuan/mt, closing 0.74% higher on the day at 14,200 yuan/mt. Near-term prices may hover at low levels as a full recovery of downstream lead-acid battery producers is expected to delay till late March. 

Tin: The most-traded SHFE 2006 contract gave up gains from the previous session, ending down 0.43% on the day at 134,100 yuan/mt, with investors adding their short positions while covering longs. Support below is expected at 132,000 yuan/mt.