SMM Morning Comments (Feb 4): Base metals rallied from Monday’s plunges

Published: Feb 4, 2020 09:57
LME base metals closed broadly lower overnight

SHANGHAI, Feb 4 (SMM) – Base metals in Shanghai and London rose in early morning trade on Tuesday, reversing some of the losses from plunges on the first trading day after the Lunar New Year holiday.

LME base metals closed broadly lower overnight, reversing earlier gains as coronavirus fears remained in the spotlight.

Night trading in China's futures market has been suspended since Monday February 3 until further notice.

Concerns about the potential impact of the coronavirus outbreak on demand further hammered crude prices on Monday. US oil dipped below $50 per barrel.

Copper: Three-month LME copper reversed earlier gains to a new low of $5,527/mt on Monday, before it closed the trading day a tad lower at $5,561/mt. Monday’s plunge sent the most active SHFE 2003 contract far below all near-term moving averages. Copper prices are unlikely to substantially recover unless there are signs of easing in the epidemic outbreak. LME copper is expected to move between $5,520-5,580/mt today, with SHFE copper at 44,700-45,000 yuan/mt. In the physical market, spot premiums are seen firm at 50-100 yuan/mt. Trades were thin on the first trading after the extended holidays. Logistics restrictions also led to muted trades.

Aluminium: Three-month LME aluminium fell for a ninth straight day on Monday, dropping below $1,700/mt to end at $1,696.5/mt. It shed 1.65% on the trading day. It is expected to trade between $1, 680-1,730/mt today. The most traded SHFE 2003 contract is likely to move at 13,400-13,800 yuan/mt.

Zinc: Three-month LME zinc came off from an intraday high of $2,249.5/mt to a new low of $2,142/mt on Monday. It lost 1.95% on the day to close at $2,165/mt. Zinc inventories across LME warehouses remained unchanged at a record low of 49,775 mt. LME zinc is expected to trade between $2,150-2,200/mt today. The most active SHFE 2003 contract is expected to trade at 17,000-17,500 yuan/mt today. Spot premiums for domestic 0# Shuangyan are seen at 50-80 yuan/mt over the SHFE 2003 contract.

Nickel: Three-month LME nickel erased earlier gains to close the trading day 0.55% weaker at $12,720/mt. Support is seen at the five-day moving average, while resistance lies at $13,000/mt. LME nickel is expected to remain rangebound.

Lead: Three-month LME lead retreated on Monday. It lost 2.48% on the trading day to end at $1,830.5/mt.

Tin: Three-month LME tin pulled back on Monday, shedding 1.55% to end at $16,180/mt. Support is seen at $16,000/mt.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn
For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn