Comment on the spot Exchange Day of SMM basic Metals on January 23

Copper: today's Asian plate morning copper opened at $6106 / ton, early in the morning is still trapped by the market panic about the global epidemic, copper prices from the morning high of $6116 / ton all the way down, quickly fell below the $6100 mark, down to a low of $6075 / ton. As of 14: 30, Lun Copper closed down 0.48% at $6079 a tonne, with the dollar index at 97.562 and US crude oil at $54.86 a barrel. The evening focused on the euro zone's deposit facility interest rates in January and unemployment data in the United States, and the dollar is putting much pressure on copper prices because of a rebound in risk aversion. At present, Lun copper performance of 6 Lianyin, the technical surface has completely fallen to Brin under the track, and under the performance of expansion, the technical side is more worrying. There is a lot of data during the holiday season, waiting for guidance from the dollar and crude oil to test whether Lun copper can hold the $6000 / tonne level.

Today, the Shanghai copper main contract 2003 opened in the morning at 48220 yuan / ton, after the opening of the center of gravity is convenient 48110-48210 yuan / ton shock hovering, close to the midday closing center of gravity continues to move down to 48000 yuan / ton, in the afternoon the two sides of the 48000 yuan / ton clearance entangled, the overall hovering around 48010 yuan / ton, the overall fluctuation range is small, the lowest during the period to 47990 yuan / ton, closed at 48020 yuan / ton, down 460 yuan / ton, down 0.95%. Shanghai copper main contract day reduction of 6824 hands, to 115000 hands, mainly for the long reduction. Shanghai copper index daily position reduction of 6101 hands, to 271000 hands, mainly for the long reduction; trading volume increased by 6025 hands to 115000 hands. Today's session continued to continue the flagging trend, the low has fallen below the 48000 yuan / ton mark, mainly due to the current market concerns about the Wuhan epidemic, commodities continue to be hit, while Trump increased international pressure on Europe, reiterated the threat of car tariffs, led to the spread of risk aversion in the market, causing the market to worry about the economic recovery in 2020. Shanghai copper is difficult to move higher under the influence of multiple risk factors. At present, Shanghai copper collection entity big yang column, and has fallen below the 60-day moving average support level, MACD green column significantly elongated, the technical side of the short copper market is obvious. In the evening, due to the Spring Festival factor Shanghai copper closed, waiting for the further performance of Shanghai copper after the Spring Festival, test whether the main force of Shanghai copper can continue to hold the 47900 yuan / ton barrier.

Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot to the current month contract discount 30 ~ 10, Pingshui copper transaction price 47980 yuan / ton ~ 48040 yuan / ton, Shengshui copper transaction price 48000 yuan / ton ~ 48060 yuan / ton. On the last day of the Spring Festival, a large number of commodities left the market mainly to avoid danger, Shanghai copper fell 48000 yuan / ton pass. The market completely enters the Spring Festival atmosphere, the transaction is cold, the supply and demand two weak pattern is prominent, only the individual trader is in the quotation, the good copper in the discount 10 yuan / ton ~ the water 10 yuan / ton, the flat water copper holds steady in the discount water 20 yuan / ton, the wet method copper narrows correspondingly to the discount water 100 yuan. In the afternoon, the market officially entered the Spring Festival holiday state, after the festival return almost will enter the February transaction, the delivery will follow. At the same time, at present, the development of the new coronavirus epidemic is still continuing, pay attention to the guidelines brought about by the development of the domestic situation after the festival.

Aluminum: Lun aluminum opens at $1810 per ton in the morning. In the Asian session, Lun aluminum opened higher by $1811.5 / ton and quickly dived below the 10-day moving average, falling to $1802 / ton by the end of 15: 00. In Europe, the long-short game intensified, Lun aluminum tried to stop at $1800 / ton, maintain a narrow range of volatility, low hit $1799 / ton, as of 15: 31 aluminum at $1800.5 / ton. It is expected that Lunal will be entangled at the $1800 / tonne level in the evening.

Shanghai aluminum main force 2003 contract opened in the morning at 14145 yuan / ton. After the opening of the day, Shanghai aluminum tried to repair the week's decline, but only 14180 yuan / ton was touched within the day. Before touching the high of the day before, it dived again and continued to fall to an afternoon low of 14070 yuan / ton, touching the 20-day moving average. The center of gravity obviously moved down. At the end of the day, it closed at 14100 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton, down 0.21%. The main position decreased by 4106 to 118000, and the Shanghai aluminum index decreased by 6424 to 311000. This week, in the last week before the Lunar New year, due to a sharp drop in holiday demand downstream, weekly inventory rose 60,000 tons as of Thursday, coupled with a clear willingness to leave the market before the festival, Shanghai Aluminum closed again, completely giving up last week's gains.

Spot market, aluminum in the afternoon to maintain range fluctuations, Shanghai and Wuxi area holder quotation in 14090,14110 yuan / ton, to the surface sticker 100-90 yuan / ton, Hangzhou area spot transaction price in 14100-14120 yuan / ton. Today, market transactions are extremely light, holders and middlemen are in a holiday state, supply and demand are weak, there are few transactions.

Lead: within the day, Lun lead opened at 1983.5 US dollars / ton. In Asia, Lun lead basically hovered around the daily average line and entered the European period. By 16: 00, Lun lead closed at US $1979 / ton, up 18.50 US dollars / ton, or 0.94%. Lun lead temporarily closed in the small negative line, the upward trend is suspended, but the LME lead 0-3 contract into a small back structure, or boost the market to do more emotion, it is expected that the downlink space at night is limited.

Within days, the Shanghai lead 2003 contract opened at 15095 yuan / ton, the Spring Festival is approaching, the market capital exchange is weak, Shanghai lead basically around the daily average narrow range shock, and the amplitude does not exceed 60 yuan / ton, afternoon, the long concentrated departure, Shanghai lead straight line leakage, break the position of 2003 yuan / ton, probe less than 14820 yuan / ton, finally closed at 14850 yuan / ton, down 315 yuan / ton, 2.08%, position reduced by 1122 hands to 23044 hands. Shanghai lead fell below all moving averages, and the technical index KDJ showed an overall downward expansion of empty. The further fermentation of the new coronavirus epidemic has filled the market with concern, dominated by risk aversion or flight before the festival.

Today is the last trading day before the Spring Festival, the market festive atmosphere is strong, upstream and downstream enterprises are on holiday, traders are also stopped quoting. The domestic logistics is basically suspended, there are few quotations in various regions, the smelter produces normally, the market enters the Spring Festival rest stage, there is little transaction in the spot market, and the spot market has become priceless and unmarketable.

Zinc: zinc in Geneva is opened at US $2394 / ton, and Zinc in Asia runs around a narrow range of daily averages. Then the suppression of the daily averages above appears, and the center of gravity of Zinc runs slightly down to around US $2380 / ton. Zinc attempts to rise back but fails to rise, and falls under pressure. It falls by US $2367 / ton, and finds support near the 20 line. However, the intensity of suppression of the 40-day EMA appears, and Zinc vomits up. As of 17: 33, Lun Zinc closed down $27.5, or 1.15%, at $2369 a tonne. Geneva zinc jump recorded a small negative line, the MACD index wants to become a dead fork, showing that the action under the zinc line is strong, the lower 20 moving average support is temporarily weak, superimposed back structure expansion, still does not attract the transfer position, reflects the overseas market supply and demand is weak, the zinc runs independently at night, pays attention to the Brin road middle rail support strength. Intraday Shanghai zinc main force 2003 contract opened at 18130 yuan / ton, Shanghai zinc opened low at the beginning of the day, falling 18085 yuan / ton, followed by 40 days of line support appeared, Shanghai zinc Xu Li rose back to 18130 yuan / ton first-line narrow shock operation, the operating range does not exceed 50 yuan / ton, the end of the session pulled up slightly, closed down 18160 yuan / ton, down 125 yuan / ton, down 0.68%, trading volume to 95825 hands, position volume reduced 14704 hands to 71913 hands. Within the day Shanghai zinc received a long shadow line negative line, the top 5, 10 days moving average double suppression, superimposed MACD index to become a dead fork, Shanghai zinc downward trend is also more obvious. During the day, social inventory recorded a higher-than-expected increase, superimposed epidemic events made funds escape from the market, follow up to observe the strength of the 40-day moving average support below. From tonight, the country will be closed for the Spring Festival.

Today, the Shanghai trade market is on holiday, and there is no discount quotation in the market.

Tin: after the opening of US $17450 / ton today, the overall arrangement of the Asian plate remained in the vicinity of the opening price during the morning to noon trading. In the afternoon of Asia, Lunxi came down under pressure. After the opening of the European market, Lunxi fell again, as of 16: 00, Lunxi's latest price of $17210 / ton, a negative line, located near the 20-day moving average, is expected to support below the integer level of $17000 / ton. This evening, we can take a look at the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ended January 18 (10,000 barrels) and the changes in EIA crude oil stocks for the week ended January 17 in the United States (10,000 barrels).

Shanghai tin main force 2006 contract last night after the opening of 140500 yuan / ton, affected by the long departure of the impact of a significant downward pressure. After the opening of 138660 yuan / ton in early trading today, the bulls continued to reduce their positions, Shanghai tin came under pressure again, the lowest fell to a daily low of 137050 yuan / ton, and finally closed at 137340 yuan / ton, down 2710 yuan / ton, down 1.94%, trading volume 33047 hands, position 28393 hands, down 8210 hands. Shanghai tin 2006 contract center of gravity fell sharply today, to a long negative close, the physical part is located near the 5-20 moving average, it is expected that the support below the Shanghai tin is near the integer level of 137000 yuan / ton.

Spot market, this morning quoted 139500-142500 yuan / ton, the last trading day before the Spring Festival holiday, Shanghai and tin market almost no trading, the overall performance is cold.

Nickel: Lunni opened at US $13660 / ton today. After the opening, the pressurized daily moving average fluctuated all the way down, continuously falling below the integer level and the low level of the front platform, down US $13420 / ton as of 15: 50. At US $13345 / ton, it was down US $315 / ton, or 2.31%, from the settlement price of the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 1772 hands and a position of 262000 hands. Lunni temporarily closed in the central column today, continuing yesterday's downward state continued to shock downward, at this time, there is no sign of stabilizing, today's LME inventory report showed that Lunni increased another 4998 tons, the total inventory is close to 200000 tons, pay attention to the first-line support of 13300 US dollars / ton below Lunni tonight.

Shanghai Nickel 2004 contract opened today at 106660 yuan / ton, daytime continuation of yesterday's night downward trend, after the opening all the way weak down, before noon, Shanghai nickel center of gravity as a whole in 106000 yuan / ton above the narrow shock; In the afternoon, Shanghai nickel continued to weaken, down 105510 yuan / ton, the center of gravity moved down to 105800 yuan / ton near a small fluctuation, and finally closed at 105690 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day settlement price fell 2130 yuan / ton, down 1.98%, trading volume 424477 hands, position increased 6544 hands to 94440 hands. Shanghai Nickel 2004 contract position today, trading volume increased significantly, become the main trading contract. Shanghai nickel closed in the middle of the column today, or due to the impact of the new domestic coronavirus, the domestic stock market has fallen sharply, Shanghai nickel and other non-ferrous metals have fallen in varying degrees. Shanghai nickel has fallen below the previous platform status, down 105000 yuan / ton front line. China will start to enter the Spring Festival holiday tomorrow, Shanghai nickel into a state of suspension.

Today, SMM1# electrolytic nickel quoted 105900-110900 yuan / ton, Russian nickel to Shanghai nickel 2002 contract to rise to 100 yuan / ton, Jinchuan nickel to Shanghai 2002 quoted 4000-4800 yuan / ton. The ex-factory price of Jinchuan Company was quoted at 110000 yuan / ton, 1000 yuan / ton lower than yesterday. The spot market basically stopped, although nickel prices fell, there are still no enquiries downstream, traders have also left the market one after another.