SMM, January 15, 2010
Throughout 2019, the new energy industry experienced the stimulus of "rush" in the first half of the year, as well as the rapid cooling of demand heat after subsidies retreated. With the acceleration of Tesla's localization at the end of the year and the renewed confidence of the industry in China's new energy market, the SMM New Energy Analysis team has integrated China's core battery material production data, combined with the price trend to summarize the trend characteristics, make an annual review and summary of the new energy battery material market in 2019, and judge and predict the price trend in 2020.
This is the second part of a series of analysis reports, which describes the conclusions and forecasts of the core data of the lithium industry:
China's lithium carbonate production was 159000 tons in 2019, an increase of 31.8 percent over the same period last year. SMM expects lithium carbonate production to be 170000 tons in 2020, up 7 per cent from a year earlier.
China's lithium hydroxide production was 76000 tons in 2019, an increase of 29.7 percent over the same period last year. SMM expects China to produce 100000 tons of lithium hydroxide in 2020, up 31 per cent from a year earlier.
In 2019, the average price of lithium carbonate in SMM battery grade was 68900 yuan / ton, down 40.9% from the same period last year, and the average price of lithium hydroxide in battery grade was 82400 yuan / ton, down 40.1% from the same period last year. SMM estimates that in 2020, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate will be 52000 yuan / ton, and that of battery-grade lithium hydroxide will be 67500 yuan / ton.
Lithium Carbonate production in China from January 2018 to December 2019
Source: SMM
In 2019, the increment of lithium carbonate production in China mainly comes from Ganfeng lithium industry, Lanke lithium industry, Nanshi lithium power, energy investment and other enterprises. Tianqi lithium industry, Zhiyuan lithium industry, Lanke lithium industry, Tangshan Xinfeng, Dongpeng new material and other enterprises have production expansion plans in the next three years.
China's lithium carbonate production was 159000 tons in 2019, an increase of 31.8 percent over the same period last year. Among them, lithium carbonate from salt lake accounts for 21.4%, and lithium carbonate from ore accounts for 78.6%. The output increment mainly comes from Ganfeng Lithium Industry, Yichun Silver Lithium, Nanshi Lithium Power, Minmetals Salt Lake, Feiyu New Energy and other enterprises.
In the first half of the year, China's lithium carbonate production showed year-on-year growth, but the growth rate was lower than we expected. There are two main reasons: first, for lithium carbonate production enterprises using spodumene as raw material, the raw material conversion capacity is limited. Market research understands that for some enterprises with new production capacity, lithium mining and production line adaptation as well as debugging to the production of stable quality products twists and turns. Second, for lithium carbonate production enterprises with salt lakes as raw materials, the production cycle of the new project is longer. From raw bittern to old bittern drying, to the production of stable batches of products that can be verified, it will take longer for new manufacturers. Moreover, affected by the season in the first half of the year, it is often not as good as the summer in the second half of the year.
In the second half of the year, although the decline in demand is obvious, but on the supply side: on the one hand, part of the production capacity is in the climbing stage, in which the amount of lithium carbonate in Jiangxi is obvious. Qinghai according to salt lake enterprises to SMM, with the improvement of process and plant design, the impact of seasonal factors on production has been negligible, at the same time, with the release of part of the production line, H2 production has also increased significantly. On the other hand, the contradiction between supply and demand of lithium salt began to break out in the second half of the year. With the continuous decline of prices, smelting enterprises have to maintain a certain price advantage in order to stabilize their existing market share or strive for more market share, and once they choose to cut production, it is also equivalent to indirectly announcing their withdrawal from the battlefield.
SMM believes that in the future, the growth point of demand in the lithium industry mainly comes from the lithium battery industry. With the recovery of the downstream market in 2020, the demand for lithium carbonate in the lithium battery industry has increased, but subject to the fundamentals of oversupply, the industry will still be dominated by de-inventory. China's lithium carbonate production in 2020 may increase slightly with the release of the production capacity of some enterprises. SMM expects lithium carbonate production to be 170000 tons in 2020, up 7 per cent from a year earlier.
Output ranking of Lithium Carbonate production Enterprises in China in 2019
Source: SMM
According to SMM statistics, the market share of lithium carbonate Top 5 production enterprises in China has reached 60%. Compared with 2018, competition in China's lithium carbonate market has intensified as a result of the commissioning of a number of smelters in 2019. In 2019, Tianqi lithium industry still ranks first in lithium carbonate production, while Yichun silver lithium ranks in the top five because of its high operating rate throughout the year.
Lithium hydroxide production in China from January 2018 to December 2019
Source: SMM
In 2019, the increment of lithium hydroxide production capacity in China mainly comes from Jiangxi River Lithium, Huihui General purpose, elegant Lithium Industry, can invest in the heyday and other enterprises. In the next three years, domestic new production capacity concerns: Ganfeng lithium industry, Guangxi Tianyuan, Zhiyuan lithium industry, Tianyi lithium industry and so on.
China's lithium hydroxide production was 76000 tons in 2019, an increase of 29.7 percent over the same period last year. Output increment comes from Jiangxi lithium, Ganfeng lithium industry, general exchange, can invest in the heyday and other enterprises. Considering that it will still take some time for new production capacity to climb the slope, the supply of lithium hydroxide is expected to be limited in 2019. In the next two years, with the entry of foreign car companies, global demand for high nickel has increased rapidly, and the growth rate of production has increased significantly.
Due to the technical bottleneck and the slow matching of models and other reasons, the development of domestic high nickel in 2019 is much lower than expected, and the growth rate of lithium hydroxide production in the upper reaches is slightly weak. the key reason for the slow growth of lithium hydroxide in 2019 is that the downstream demand is not enough to drive the upstream production growth.
At present, the global high quality lithium hydroxide production capacity is concentrated in China. With the acceleration of Tesla localization and the development of high nickel models such as BMW and Weilai, the demand and output of battery lithium hydroxide in China will increase significantly in 2020. However, due to the domestic high nickel technology is still in the process of development, and according to SMM, domestic car companies are still to reduce costs in 2020 as the main goal, and many leading enterprises to lithium iron phosphate battery, 2021 may have a mass production model into the market, 2022 or the year of the outbreak of high nickel demand. SMM expects China to produce 100000 tons of lithium hydroxide in 2020, up 31 per cent from a year earlier.
Output ranking of Lithium hydroxide production Enterprises in China in 2019
Source: SMM
At present, the raw material source of lithium hydroxide in China is more single than that of lithium carbonate. Spodumene concentrate is mainly used as raw material, and the concentration of manufacturers is higher. According to SMM statistics, the market share of lithium hydroxide Top 5 production enterprises in China has reached 84.6%. With the smooth commissioning of its lithium hydroxide production line and high quality product quality, Ronghui General Motors has successfully entered the list of TOP5 enterprises in 2019.
Based on the fundamentals of lithium oversupply in 2020, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated after bottoming out in the first quarter or at low levels throughout the year. Taking into account the current domestic smelters finished products and ore inventory levels are high, enterprises in order to ship, there is still room for the last drop in prices before and after the Spring Festival. As the price of lithium carbonate falls to the cost line of some spodumene lithium extraction enterprises, some enterprises may choose to stop production, and the price of lithium carbonate is expected to stabilize. Lithium hydroxide may boost demand for high nickel as foreign carmakers such as Tesla, BMW and Volkswagen enter China next year. According to SMM statistics, domestic battery grade lithium hydroxide high-quality production capacity is relatively limited in 2019, if the smelter put into production capacity in 2020 or less than expected (Ganfeng lithium project, Tianqi lithium project, elegant 20, 000 tons project, foreign exchange 16000 tons project, etc.), lithium hydroxide prices or in the second and third quarter of 2020 appeared in a state of tight balance between supply and demand, prices or now rebound, lithium carbonate prices may be slightly pulled up. SMM estimates that in 2020, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate will be 52000 yuan / ton, and that of battery-grade lithium hydroxide will be 67500 yuan / ton.
Carding of key News in Lithium Mine in 2019
Lithium Cauchari-Olaroz Lithium Project in Argentina to be put into production in 2020
The US lithium company said on February 26th that its cauchario-olaroz lithium project in Argentina was expected to go into production by 2020 despite unusually heavy rainfall in recent weeks. Cauchari is wholly owned by MineraExar and MineraExar is a joint venture with 62.5 per cent and 37.5 per cent shares held by Lithium Company of the United States and Jiangxi Ganfeng Company, respectively.
In AVZ: 's Manono project, RocheDure has the largest hard rock lithium ore resource in the world.
May 13, AVZ announced that RocheDure pegmatite, its Manono project in the Democratic Republic of Congo, has the world's largest hard rock type lithium ore resources, with a proven and presumed ore content of 269 million tons, lithium oxide taste 1.65%, tin 220000 tons and tantalum 9600 tons. The mining and separation project of Rongjie methyl caryophyllite mine was officially put into production on June 10.
June 6, Rongjie shares announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary Ganzi Zhou Runda Lithium Co., Ltd. has been notified by the Kangding Municipal Government of Sichuan Province on the 6th, agreeing that the company's wholly owned subsidiary Ganzi State Rongda Lithium Co., Ltd. Kangding Methyl Carboniferous Mine will start construction on May 16. Accordingly, Rongjie shares finally decided that its methyl caryophyllite mining and separation project was officially put into production on June 10, and a grand production ceremony was held in Tagong Township, Kangding City, Ganzi Prefecture.
Cunninghamia lanceolata shares 120 million yuan acquisition of some shares in Altura Mining continues to increase new energy business
On June 24, Cunninghamia lanceolata AG, through its wholly-owned subsidiary Yongshan International, recently signed a "share Sale and purchase Agreement" with Frey Holdings Limited. Yongshan International intends to offer A $0.10 per share for a total price of about A $25.1361 million, equivalent to about 120 million yuan. The total AlturaMiningLimited, held by Fry Holdings accounts for 11.83% of its issued shares. A few days ago, this share transfer has completed the registration formalities of share transfer.
Ganfeng Lithium takes a stake in Bacanora and its lithium clay project company Sonora through its subsidiary
July 1-Ganfeng Lithium Industry announced that at its 35th meeting of the fourth session of the Board of Directors held on June 28, 2019, it examined and passed the "motion on subscribing for part of the equity interest in Bacanora and its lithium clay project company Sonora related to mining rights investment", agreeing to Ganfeng International Trading (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, to subscribe for new shares in Bacanora with its own capital of 14.4 million pounds. Invest in Sonora at the company level with its own capital of £7.5636 million and authorize the management of the company to handle the transaction at its sole discretion.
Great Wall signs additional agreement with Australian lithium miners to continue supplying spodumene concentrate
PilbaraMinerals, an Australian lithium miner, said on July 9 that it had signed an additional agreement with Chinese carmaker Great Wall Automotive Co., Ltd., to supply spodumene concentrate, a key mineral in the manufacture of electric vehicle batteries. Under the agreement, Pilbara will start shipping in August, shipping 20, 000 metric tons of dry concentrate a year for six consecutive years.
Altura Mining Industry signs underwriting Agreement with Shandong Ruifu Lithium Industry
July 12, Altura and Chinese lithium material manufacturer Shandong Ruifu signed a binding underwriting agreement, starting from July 2019, the annual output of lithium concentrate in the underwriting agreement is 35000 tons for a period of five years, and Shaanxi JJJJR optimized energy (JRO) reached an agreement to terminate the existing underwriting agreement.
Albemarle cuts $300m in acquisition of Wodgina due to weak lithium demand
AlbemarleCorp, the world's largest lithium producer, announced on its website that it had revised its agreement to buy MineralResourcesLimited's Wodgina lithium mine in order to cut transaction expenses. At present, Albemarle has agreed to acquire a 60 per cent stake in Wodgina Lithium Mine for $820 million in cash and to form a joint venture with MineralResourcesLimited to operate the mine and to produce battery-grade lithium hydroxide.
Australian lithium miner Argosy signs lithium carbonate supply agreement with Mitsubishi
August 29, Australian lithium miner Argosy confirmed with the Japanese Mitsubishi Group (MitsubishiCorp.) subsidiary signed a preliminary agreement on the supply of lithium carbonate, the agreement for a period of three years, and can be extended for another two years. Under the agreement, Argosy supplies Mitsubishi with 2000 tons of lithium carbonate a year, which will come from Argosy's Rincon project in Argentina. As the commercial terms are finalized, the two companies will continue negotiations to reach a detailed final supply contract.
Ningde era: invest 260 million yuan in Pilbara to ensure the supply of upstream lithium resources
September 4-Ningde Times announced that its wholly owned subsidiary Hong Kong Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. and PilbaraMineralsLimited have signed a subscription agreement on September 3, 2019. in order to ensure the supply of lithium resources upstream of the company, the company intends to make a strategic investment in Pilbara by subscribing for additional shares at A $0.3 per share at a total price of A $55 million (converted at the intermediate exchange rate of the people's Bank of China on September 3, 2019). (equivalent to about RMB 263.318 million) subscribes to its newly issued 183333334 common shares, accounting for 8.5 per cent of its total share capital after the completion of the share issue, whichever is the final completion of Pilbara financing.
MaliLithium is looking for a partner for Goulamina Lithium Mine with an annual output of 362000 tons of lithium concentrate
MaliLithium is looking for a partner for its $200m Goulamina lithium mine. The company will make a final decision by the end of 2020, and the construction of the project is expected to take 18-24 months. The latest feasibility study of the Goulamina project estimates that if a concentrator with an annual capacity of 2 million tons is built, the average annual output of lithium concentrate could reach 362000 tons, totaling 5.7 million tons, within the initial mining life of 16 years. MaliLithium is optimistic about future demand for lithium mines. The company said in February that demand for lithium mines would be nine times higher over the next decade, and that its China would play a crucial role, with 65 per cent of battery capacity by 2028.
Tesla plans to reach supply agreement with lithium miner Sigma miners remain bullish on lithium market prospects
Sept. 16-Tesla seeks to reach an agreement with Brazil's SigmaLithiumResourcesGroup in the hope that the latter will provide lithium mines for Tesla. If a final agreement is reached, both companies will benefit directly, but only if Tesla opens an electric car battery plant in the US.
Wesfarmers's 50% interest in MtHolland Lithium Mine is expected to become an important producer of Battery Grade Lithium hydroxide
Sept. 25-Wesfarmers announced that it has completed its acquisition of KidmanResources for $776 million. The acquisition gives Wesfarmers a 50 per cent stake in the MtHolland lithium joint venture in Western Australia, with SQM holding the rest. The MtHolland lithium project, which covers a mine, concentrator and refiner, is expected to become an important producer of battery-grade lithium hydroxide.
Australian Lithium reshuffle Lithium Merchant Alita bankrupt
September 28-after talks with lenders and key stakeholders, AlitaResources, an Australian lithium mining company, announced that it had appointed an bankruptcy administrator to restructure the company.
Annual output of EarlGrey Lithium Mine approved in Western Australia to reach 300-5 million tons
Oct. 15-the Western Australian Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has approved an environmental license for the EarlGrey lithium mining project. The project is open pit mining, the annual output of lithium mine is expected to reach 300-5 million tons, and the project will be developed in several stages over a 40-year mining cycle, with a total mining capacity of 100 million tons.
SMM Battery Materials Research team
Hu Yan 021-51666809
Qin Jingjing 021-51666828
Mei Wangqin 021-51666759
Huo Yuan 021-51666898
Wuyang 021-51666818
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