SMM Evening Comments (Jan 13): Copper flat ahead of US-China trade deal signing

SHANGHAI, Jan 13 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals closed mixed on Monday, ahead of this week’s scheduled signing of an initial US-China trade deal. 

A phased trade agreement between the world's two largest economies is due to be signed in Washington on Wednesday.

Nickel was the best performer today with a rise of 1.33%. Copper went flat, lead added 0.1%, tin increased 0.39%, while aluminium fell 0.78%, and zinc lost 0.3%. 

The ferrous complex traded lower as iron ore shed 0.38%, rebar declined 1.07%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.94%, stainless steel dropped 0.14%, and coke eased 1.83%. 

Copper: Shanghai copper went flat on Monday with investors shifting their focus to a signing of an US-China Phase One trade deal later this week, which could boost economic growth and demand. The most-traded SHFE 2003 contract hovered around 48,900 yuan/mt and trimmed increase from last Friday night to finish at 48,940 yuan/mt. The US non-farm payroll rose slower than expected, which grew concerns about the strength of the global economy and depressed upward momentum in copper. As pressure from US-Iran tensions looks set to continue, the contract is likely to trade below the five- and 10- day moving averages tonight. 

Aluminium: The most-traded 2003 contract gave up the increase from last Friday as a buildup of 14,000 mt in social inventories of primary aluminium over the weekend dampened confidence in longs. The contract slipped to a session low of 13,930 yuan/mt, before ended at 13,960 yuan/mt, 0.78% lower on the day. Worries about weaker consumption may see the contract testing support from the 40-day moving average tonight. 

Zinc: The most-traded SHFE 2003 contract fell for the third consecutive day with pressure from loaded-up short positions. It lost support from the five-day moving average, and hit an intraday low of 18,215 yuan/mt, ending down 0.3% on the day at 18,260 yuan/mt. Elevated social inventories of refined zinc, as tracked by SMM, together with limited support from the 10-day moving average, may expand the downside room in the contract tonight. 

Nickel: The most-liquid SHFE 2003 contract extended its increase for the sixth consecutive session as longs aggressively loaded up their position. It ended the day 1.33% higher at 113,210 yuan/mt, after hit an intraday high of 113,390 yuan/mt. Open interest added 12,000 lots to 182,000 lots. Pressure above from 114,000 yuan/mt will be monitored tonight. 

Lead: The most-traded SHFE 2003 contract struggled around 15,000 yuan/mt and failed to breach pressure from the 40-day moving average, ending up 0.1% on the day at 14,990 yuan/mt. Demand and supply will both fall in the short term as downstream lead-acid battery producers in China began to shut down this week for the holiday and secondary lead smelters also planned to halt production this week. A weakened LME lead during the European trading hours may put the SHFE contract under downward pressure tonight. 

Tin: The most-traded SHFE 2006 contract pared some gains after climbed to an intraday high of 138,100 yuan/mt, closing 0.39% higher on the day at 138,090 yuan/mt. Rising longs accounted for the increase as open interest rose 873 lots to 36,550 lots. The contract is expected to trade with support from 136,500 yuan/mt and pressure from 138,500 yuan/mt tonight.