SMM1 6: January 6, A shares of non-ferrous cobalt plate strengthened, Tianqi shares rose by the limit, China Baoan, Hengli Industry before the seal, cold sharp cobalt industry rose more than 5%, when rising science and technology, Huayu cobalt industry, Greenmei, Dow technology and so on. Non-ferrous cobalt concept continued to rise in the afternoon, a number of stocks rose by the limit.
Spot market, according to SMM, last week foreign media electrolytic cobalt quotation rose, speculative market bullish sentiment is strong. Large domestic factories received a large number of goods in the market in the early stage, resulting in a reduction in the supply of low-priced goods in the market, a firm attitude of suppliers, and a small number of transaction prices that just needed to be replenished were slightly pulled up. The price of cobalt salt approaches the cost line, the seller intends to raise the quotation, the cost of four cobalt rises, some four cobalt manufacturers worry that the price of four cobalt will keep floating in the future, a small amount of purchase, and the price of four cobalt will rise slightly. According to the feedback from the cathode material factory, the three-yuan order was still weak in the first quarter, and the momentum of the buyer in the future was limited.
According to Tesla on January 3, the price of the domestic Model 3 standard life upgrade model is reduced by 32000 yuan, and the final price is only 299050 yuan. According to SMM analysis, its price reduction will have a great impact on new energy vehicles with low mileage and high performance-to-price ratio, such as BYD Tang series, SAIC Roewe MARVEL.X, and new power car companies Weimar Automobile, Xiaopeng P7 and so on. In addition, the brand effect of Tesla cars, which will stimulate the purchasing power of consumers, will also hit the fuel vehicle market of traditional domestic car companies. Tesla's move will benefit its own development in the Chinese market and, in turn, stimulate demand for new energy power batteries, and the news will also stimulate the rise in nonferrous cobalt.
The agency believes that Glencore's shutdown, which began at the end of 2019, is expected to significantly improve the balance between supply and demand in the industry, with overall cobalt sales expected to fall 10000 to 15000 tons in 2020 from a year earlier. At present, the inventory of cobalt smelting enterprises is on the low side in the past two years, the effect of price suppression is weak, and there may be replenishment demand in the future. On the demand side, European carbon emission standards have become more stringent, forcing the early implementation of the electric strategy of traditional car companies, superimposed on Tesla's global capacity expansion, and overseas new energy vehicle sales are expected to accelerate growth. Even if the NCM811 battery becomes the mainstream, the cobalt demand in the power battery field will still reach 15000, 20000 and 28000 tons in 2019, 2020 and 2021. In addition, thanks to the promotion of 5G devices and the improvement of mobile phone battery capacity, the demand for cobalt in 3C will also maintain an annual growth rate of about 2000 tons.
On November 25, 2019, Glencore had planned to close the mine in December, but chose to close the mine ahead of schedule in November. The news that Glencore closed the mine a month in advance was circulated and confirmed in the cobalt middleware market at the end of September. The spot market completed trading before October 15 and gave feedback on trading volume prices. The impact on the stock market will be sustained.
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