SMM aluminum internal morning meeting minutes: overnight Shanghai aluminum main opening price of 14100 yuan / ton, long plus position high hit 14210 yuan / ton, the final close of 14180 yuan / ton, up 80 yuan / ton, up 0.57%; yesterday Lun aluminum March contract opening price of $1766.5 / ton, short off the market shock closed higher at $1782 / ton, up 18 dollars / ton, up 1.02%. Macro: domestic: 1) the central bank launched a reverse repurchase operation of 50 billion yuan for 7 days and 150 billion yuan for 14 days on Wednesday. Among them, the 7-day reverse repurchase winning interest rate was 2.50%, the same as the last time, and the 14-day reverse repurchase winning interest rate was 2.65%, the last time it was 2.70%. 2) Ministry of Housing and Construction: 2.89 million new sets of shed reform plans have been started in 2019; 3.15 million sets have been built from January to November, accounting for 109% of the annual target tasks, with an investment of 1.16 trillion yuan. Overseas: 1) the Japanese government expects real GDP growth to be 0.9% in fiscal year 2019, the same as previous expectations; 2) Germany's IFO business sentiment index for December was 96.3, expected to be 95.5. 3) the Baltic dry bulk Index fell 4.68% to 1221 points for 11 days in a row.
Fundamentals: 1) yesterday, Shandong Weiqiao Entrepreneurship Group held the launch ceremony of Yunnan Green Aluminum Innovation Industrial Park and 2 million tons Green Hydropower Aluminum Project in Yanshan County, Wenshan Prefecture, Yunnan Province; 2) Yunnan Shenhuo plans to turn on electricity at the end of December and is expected to be released from February to March 2020. 3) Yunyun Aluminum Heqing is expected to turn on electricity in February 2020; Zhaotong and Wenshan plan to turn on electricity in the middle of 2020; (4) the Binjour bauxite project of Abx, an Australian bauxite company, has received financial support to mine 37 million tons of bauxite, a large portion of which will be sold to Tianshan Bauxite in China. 4) as the spot price of aluminum rose 240 yuan / ton yesterday, the ex-factory processing fee for aluminum rods in Shandong fell 180 yuan / ton, and the processing fee for φ 120 aluminum bars in Guangdong fell 80 yuan / ton.
Spot: yesterday, Shanghai Wuxi market spot quotation in the afternoon between 14370-14390 yuan / ton, compared with yesterday's price rose 240 yuan / ton, to the surface rose 150-160 yuan / ton, Hangzhou area spot price in 14370-14390 yuan / ton. The supply of goods in circulation in the market has not changed, the shipments of the shippers have increased under the high price, the middlemen are still actively receiving the goods, the buyers are more than the sellers, and the transaction between the two sides is OK. Downstream today mainly on-demand procurement, because the price increase is too large, today's enthusiasm for receiving goods is not high. Summary: the release volume and speed of the supply side is not as expected, the consumption is stable, the spot of aluminum ingots is tight in the short term, and the aluminum price is nearly strong and far weak. It is expected that in the short term, the arrival of aluminum ingots is difficult to increase rapidly, to the warehouse to continue, spot and recent month contract strong shock.
(SMM Liang Xuan)
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