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Macro Roundup (Dec 16)

iconDec 16, 2019 08:31
Source:SMM
The US dollar edged lower against a basket of currencies last Friday

SHANGHAI, Dec 16 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last weekend and what is expected in the day ahead.

Last weekend

The US dollar edged lower against a basket of currencies last Friday as news of a preliminary China-US trade deal and an election victory for Britain’s Brexit-backing Conservative Party looked to have cleared a couple of dark clouds from the global horizon, depressing safe-haven demand for the greenback.

US and Chinese officials announced on Friday that the two countries had finally agreed to the phase one agreement after a contentious 18-month trade war. China agreed to billions of dollars in agricultural purchases from the US, while President Donald Trump vowed to suspend tariffs on Chinese goods due to take effect on Sunday

LME base metals and the SHFE complex closed mostly lower. LME copper shed 0.3%, aluminium fell 0.4%, lead lost 1.09%, zinc dipped 0.13%, tin eased 0.15%, while nickel added 1.46%. 

SHFE copper declined 0.45%, aluminium dropped 0.07%, lead lost 0.82%, zinc shed 0.06%, while nickel climbed 1.29%, and tin rose 0.08%. Rebar increased 0.26% and stainless steel advanced 0.46%.

The “phase one” trade deal between Washington and Beijing will nearly double US exports to China over the next two years and is “totally done” despite the need for translation and revisions to its text, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said on Sunday.

On the data front, US import prices rose 0.2% in November, following a 0.5% decrease in October, while the price index for US exports rose 0.2% last month, after declining 0.1% in the previous month, the U.S. Department of Labor reported on Friday.

The November increase in import prices was driven by higher fuel prices, which more than offset lower nonfuel prices.

US retail sales rose less than expected in November as Americans cut back on discretionary spending, which could see economists dialling back economic growth forecasts for the fourth quarter.

The Commerce Department said on Friday retail sales rose 0.2% last month, compared with an expected increase of 0.5%. 

Data for October was revised up to show retail sales increasing 0.4% instead of gaining 0.3% as previously reported.

Baker Hughes on Friday reported that the number of active US rigs drilling for oil rose by four to 667 last week. That followed declines in each of the last seven weeks. 

The total active US rig count, meanwhile, was unchanged from last week at 799, according to Baker Hughes.

Day ahead

Economic data slated for release today include China’s added value of industrial output, investment in fixed assets and retail sales of consumer goods for November, as well as December Markit manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) in Germany, eurozone and the US.  

Macroeconomics

For queries, please contact Michael Jiang at michaeljiang@smm.cn

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